Grown-Flanker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$250

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

285

Trades

2,259

lifetime

Volume

$201.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

$5.05K

20 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 10-31 15:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Politics

46% 63% +$9,321

Other

43% 61% +$4,733

Tech

11% 69% +$1,091

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	+1,639	$825	100¢	$1.6K	+$807	09-30 19:09
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-641	-$519	97¢	$-622	-$103	04-30 16:04
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	+448	$268	82¢	$365	+$97	10-30 19:34
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	+398	$337	84¢	$336	-$1	10-31 15:46
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+346	$301	92¢	$320	+$19	10-04 06:33
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+339	$224	72¢	$246	+$22	10-04 16:58
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+346	$221	70¢	$244	+$22	10-24 03:25
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	+233	$186	100¢	$232	+$46	10-12 16:52
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+186	$125	72¢	$133	+$8	10-24 11:34
will mark rutte visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126047	Yes	+245	$153	52¢	$129	-$24	08-30 21:29
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	+394	$103	32¢	$124	+$21	10-30 19:36
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	+143	$124	86¢	$122	-$2	10-30 21:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+110	$101	95¢	$104	+$3	10-30 21:04
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+138	$104	72¢	$100	-$3	10-24 03:26
will ursula von der leyen visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126046	Yes	+258	$170	38¢	$99	-$71	08-19 14:21
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	+102	$87	90¢	$91	+$5	10-27 09:21
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,192	$105	6¢	$67	-$38	10-19 20:15
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	+80	$74	77¢	$62	-$12	10-30 19:33
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+845	$538	2¢	$15	-$523	10-25 12:56
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+107	$30	6¢	$7	-$23	10-22 20:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	8	$6.5K	3,473	3,473	+0	No	-$142	09-30 19:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	8	$5.9K	5,008	2,957	+2,051	No	+$883	10-08 10:59
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	42	$5.9K	4,842	4,448	+394	open	—	10-30 19:36
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$5.4K	3,026	3,026	+0	open	—	07-18 17:10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	17	$5.1K	4,325	1,856	+2,469	Yes	+$466	07-20 15:54
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	31	$5.0K	2,636	2,636	+0	Yes	+$240	03-30 08:37
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	22	$4.5K	5,096	5,096	-0	Yes	+$2,969	10-23 08:12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	2	$3.9K	2,156	2,156	+0	No	+$407	06-29 10:52
will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 25 939	1	$3.6K	3,652	0	+3,652	No	+$32	01-25 20:15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	4	$2.9K	3,252	0	+3,252	Yes	+$333	06-08 15:07
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	4	$2.8K	1,883	1,883	+0	open	—	10-24 11:13
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in august 2026 20260731154202609	14	$2.5K	2,658	0	+2,658	No	+$197	08-19 12:45
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	12	$2.4K	1,349	1,349	+0	Yes	+$294	05-30 04:12
will trump speak to volodymyr zelenskyy by october 31	19	$2.2K	2,515	0	+2,515	open	—	10-30 19:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	12	$2.1K	2,052	1,094	+958	No	-$105	04-15 22:25
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$2.0K	2,030	0	+2,030	No	+$51	04-12 04:07
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?	2	$1.9K	1,048	1,048	+0	No	+$156	05-29 21:15
will russia strike kyiv on february 5 2026	7	$1.9K	1,477	1,477	+0	No	+$903	02-05 16:30
russia x ukraine prisoner exchange by february 14 2026	8	$1.9K	989	989	+0	Yes	+$91	02-05 12:29
mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	14	$1.9K	2,169	0	+2,169	No	+$302	07-22 10:26
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in march 2026 235	23	$1.9K	842	1,127	-285	No	+$48	04-01 06:31
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	8	$1.9K	1,168	1,168	+0	No	+$451	02-02 13:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	3	$1.8K	2,090	0	+2,090	No	+$295	05-03 04:30
will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	10	$1.7K	1,321	1,321	+0	Yes	+$942	07-22 08:15
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	12	$1.7K	2,184	1,952	+233	open	—	10-12 16:52
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	14	$1.6K	1,984	0	+1,984	No	+$379	10-19 07:54
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in february 2026	23	$1.6K	792	898	-106	No	+$100	03-01 08:07
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	26	$1.6K	816	816	+0	Yes	+$71	04-30 03:07
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	14	$1.5K	2,062	0	+2,062	Yes	+$536	08-01 13:40
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	14	$1.5K	912	912	+0	No	+$319	09-19 13:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 15:46:09	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	84¢	$40	0x7c8cc6…
10-31 09:30:18	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x2333a8…
10-31 07:11:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	No	BUY	313	86¢	$270	0xba5f78…
10-31 07:11:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	No	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0x0945fa…
10-31 07:11:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xa66b77…
10-31 06:49:45	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x4ddcdf…
10-31 05:59:27	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	225	81¢	$182	0x32c14f…
10-31 05:57:54	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	313	84¢	$263	0x8e5f8c…
10-31 05:57:43	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x125d8f…
10-30 21:05:46	Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	89¢	$56	0xeb4327…
10-30 21:05:40	Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	88¢	$24	0xa9fdd8…
10-30 21:05:34	Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	47	87¢	$41	0x649b76…
10-30 21:04:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	56	92¢	$52	0xf61d62…
10-30 21:03:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	143	87¢	$124	0xeeb290…
10-30 21:03:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	54	92¢	$49	0x4eb9d3…
10-30 19:45:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x6c04db…
10-30 19:36:13	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0x746902…
10-30 19:35:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,333	1¢	$17	0xa933df…
10-30 19:34:34	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	194	58¢	$113	0xc235aa…
10-30 19:33:46	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xe8b2ba…
10-30 19:33:27	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x322af5…
10-30 19:33:00	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	No	BUY	1,534	96¢	$1,472	0x8b0af6…
10-30 19:32:43	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	No	BUY	179	95¢	$170	0xb062f4…
10-30 19:31:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x57e856…
10-30 19:31:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	No	BUY	65	88¢	$57	0xe70b62…
10-30 19:31:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	No	BUY	400	81¢	$324	0x4e5d4c…
10-30 18:14:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xd74d53…
10-30 18:14:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	No	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0x1dc4f4…
10-30 18:13:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?	No	BUY	216	88¢	$191	0x84dc9a…
10-30 18:13:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xc9aa03…
10-30 16:27:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	No	BUY	140	83¢	$116	0x40b5ba…
10-30 16:27:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	No	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x186c5f…
10-30 16:24:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	6¢	$4	0x4ace57…
10-30 13:54:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	27¢	$6	0xacfe47…
10-30 13:54:45	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x781973…
10-30 09:34:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0x93fc42…
10-30 08:50:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xc8b0f3…
10-30 08:47:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0xf7faa9…
10-30 05:31:19	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xc422b9…
10-30 05:29:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x73a505…
10-30 05:26:46	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xd2643a…
10-30 05:14:58	Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	86¢	$51	0x120595…
10-30 05:14:51	Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xe6c4cf…
10-30 05:14:30	Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x6e5e62…
10-29 19:24:27	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	70	66¢	$46	0xa626c7…
10-29 14:17:13	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x626a9c…
10-29 04:06:52	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	110	66¢	$72	0x567c5b…
10-28 18:05:16	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xc5c41b…
10-28 18:04:46	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xddb6dc…
10-28 18:04:23	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	60	61¢	$37	0xfbf2ac…
10-28 18:03:35	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	311	72¢	$224	0x4ba7ac…
10-28 18:00:07	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0xb22024…
10-28 17:59:58	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	24	61¢	$15	0x4bb8be…
10-28 17:59:46	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0x22dba7…
10-28 17:40:31	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x647ed2…
10-28 09:44:29	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x435bab…
10-28 09:43:58	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x0cf43f…
10-28 09:43:55	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	20¢	$6	0xd6439b…
10-28 09:43:53	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x2eb85b…
10-28 09:03:26	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xe85f63…
10-28 09:03:26	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	29¢	$14	0x292996…
10-28 06:35:38	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	29¢	$15	0xf08e41…
10-28 06:18:50	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xeff427…
10-28 06:08:58	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xf5ae32…
10-28 06:08:49	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x059fdd…
10-28 06:02:31	Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x584c05…
10-28 05:55:04	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x1d157c…
10-27 21:04:50	Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0x8305ac…
10-27 20:25:03	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x7f3fc6…
10-27 20:25:00	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x145674…
10-27 20:23:44	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	No	BUY	139	89¢	$124	0xa1d3d3…
10-27 20:23:33	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x90a155…
10-27 11:46:27	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xe6d373…
10-27 10:53:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	27¢	$8	0x685d74…
10-27 09:45:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	27¢	$4	0x76e817…
10-27 09:39:33	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	27¢	$10	0x8a34b2…
10-27 09:21:38	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	102	85¢	$87	0x0baae9…
10-27 09:15:27	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x903684…
10-27 09:12:48	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x5216ba…
10-27 09:11:50	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	89	29¢	$26	0xbfc9d6…
10-27 08:58:29	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	789	25¢	$200	0xebfadd…
10-27 07:13:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	145	92¢	$133	0x8acbbd…
10-27 07:12:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	241	81¢	$195	0x51c1a0…
10-27 07:10:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	120	96¢	$116	0xd3bc22…
10-25 16:26:53	Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x643a0c…
10-25 16:26:39	Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xf4d215…
10-25 12:56:45	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	130	47¢	$61	0xabea22…
10-25 12:56:38	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x48555d…
10-25 12:55:30	Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x6d6eea…
10-25 05:06:32	Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by October 31?	No	SELL	47	0¢	$0	0x3b57dc…
10-24 19:26:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	241	82¢	$198	0xbc2849…
10-24 19:24:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	145	81¢	$117	0xb6208e…
10-24 19:23:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	120	89¢	$107	0xa1f75f…
10-24 11:34:45	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	186	67¢	$125	0x2f346d…
10-24 11:32:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	264	7¢	$18	0x13411a…
10-24 11:31:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,720	0¢	$13	0xabe1b2…
10-24 11:28:45	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	No	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0xd20d11…
10-24 11:27:42	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	58	79¢	$46	0x8fa311…
10-24 11:27:39	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x8604bf…
10-24 11:23:53	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x8b44a1…