Realized P&L
-$15.6K
Unrealized P&L
-$322
Hit rate
57.8%
Resolved
50
Trades
22,692
lifetime
Volume
$5.57M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$245
Open exposure
$47.7K
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 19 days
Categories
Other
43% 89% $-1,384
Politics
33% 67% $-14,409
Crypto
18% 100% +$103
Sports
4% 100% +$60
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 343 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +32,008 $25,326 74¢ $23.5K $-1,800 07-20 19:33
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +9,439 $6,775 76¢ $7.2K +$446 07-20 11:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +6,390 $4,424 83¢ $5.3K +$880 06-22 00:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +3,528 $3,256 98¢ $3.5K +$217 07-10 21:40
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +3,954 $2,997 82¢ $3.2K +$245 07-08 16:00
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,367 $2,000 100¢ $1.4K $-634 06-20 22:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -2,257 $-1,075 18¢ $-406 +$668 07-08 15:19
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +444 $380 86¢ $380 +$0 06-02 05:06
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No +433 $290 88¢ $379 +$89 06-05 22:52
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No +337 $323 99¢ $334 +$10 07-04 23:31
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No +456 $223 68¢ $312 +$89 07-07 22:55
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +341 $256 80¢ $275 +$19 07-05 19:30
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +330 $248 80¢ $266 +$18 07-04 15:31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +254 $214 90¢ $227 +$14 06-10 22:07
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +577 $302 30¢ $176 $-126 07-05 08:24
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No +333 $153 46¢ $155 +$1 06-06 01:31
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +222 $151 70¢ $154 +$3 07-04 18:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No +222 $95 68¢ $152 +$57 06-08 06:40
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No +222 $155 56¢ $124 $-31 07-07 19:27
SHEIN IPO before 2027? No +668 $466 14¢ $92 $-374 07-10 10:05
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +120 $62 62¢ $74 +$12 07-13 05:22
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No -439 $-44 $-33 +$11 06-21 12:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes -1,427 $-146 $-22 +$123 07-02 14:24
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? No +6 $5 90¢ $6 +$0 07-08 13:41
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No +8 $259 $0 $-259 06-14 23:36