Realized P&L
+$12.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.24K
Hit rate
89.8%
Resolved
312
Trades
14,594
lifetime
Volume
$1.03M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$70
Open exposure
$2.69K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-31 00:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 115 days
Categories
Politics
90% 87% +$11,458
Other
10% 78% +$658
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 154 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -649 -$522 94¢ $-613 -$91 10-16 16:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +700 $328 86¢ $606 +$277 10-30 22:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +494 $326 62¢ $309 -$17 10-30 23:43
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No +256 $201 90¢ $230 +$30 10-30 14:23
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No -200 -$282 88¢ $-176 +$106 10-29 17:29
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +161 $52 92¢ $149 +$97 10-30 15:24
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +121 $108 92¢ $112 +$3 10-30 20:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +100 $58 92¢ $92 +$34 10-30 21:47
russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026 No +70 -$246 99¢ $69 +$315 10-29 17:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes -446 -$294 15¢ $-65 +$229 08-29 11:31
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026? No -60 -$69 95¢ $-57 +$12 10-27 01:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +100 $42 52¢ $52 +$10 10-30 23:02
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes -700 -$166 6¢ $-39 +$127 05-16 11:41
iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655 No +54 $37 70¢ $38 +$1 08-09 13:48
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +35 -$462 82¢ $29 +$491 10-29 02:19
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? No +21 -$9 96¢ $20 +$29 09-26 21:33
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes +54 $6 30¢ $16 +$10 10-27 09:22
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +154 $46 8¢ $12 -$35 05-23 18:39
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No +35 -$102 18¢ $6 +$108 10-10 23:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +4 -$353 86¢ $3 +$357 10-27 13:07
ukraine election called by december 31 2026 Yes +21 -$3 4¢ $1 +$4 06-16 12:33
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? Yes -9 -$38 8¢ $-1 +$37 10-28 19:53
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? No +100 $92 1¢ $1 -$91 10-11 08:46
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? Yes +70 -$79 1¢ $0 +$80 09-16 05:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +0 -$46 100¢ $0 +$46 10-29 09:55
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No +0 -$12 95¢ $0 +$12 07-02 10:43
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No +0 -$15 99¢ $0 +$15 07-01 22:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +0 -$25 74¢ $0 +$25 10-21 20:37
NATO article 5 before 2027? No +0 -$3 96¢ $0 +$3 05-30 15:50
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? No +0 -$18 100¢ $0 +$18 10-03 17:45