Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
open
Total volume
$41,763
Trades
328
Unique wallets
121
Liquidity
$8,917
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 08-05 17:26
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 9 | $33 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 11 | $23 | $2.3K | $2.3K |
| 🐟 Fish | 28 | $27 | $5.7K | $5.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 73 | $2.0K | $12.6K | $10.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 10 | $21 | $252 | $231 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $5 | $2.4K | $2.4K |
| Median | 17 | $83 | $2.2K | $2.1K |
| Below median | 7 | $204 | $381 | $177 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $14 | $382 | $368 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $4 | $4 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $24 | — | +$24 |
| unranked | 71 | $1.7K | $16.0K | $14.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x706e…1f82 | Yes | +2,339 | $211 | $211 | 7 | 06-25 12:37 |
| Red-Heat 0xf71b…f922 | Yes | +2,176 | $381 | $446 | 11 | 07-25 23:36 |
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | +1,761 | $1,700 | $1,700 | 4 | 07-18 17:04 |
| Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | +930 | $874 | $874 | 1 | 08-02 21:29 |
| Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | +400 | $9 | $21 | 4 | 07-18 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x95fc…56e8 | No | +387 | $321 | $321 | 1 | 06-26 02:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x4746…76d8 | No | +368 | $335 | $335 | 1 | 06-25 12:37 |
| Ironclad-Counterforce 0xadb2…5e57 | No | +366 | $303 | $303 | 1 | 06-26 02:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xbf0c…4889 | No | +364 | $302 | $302 | 1 | 06-26 02:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xea49…e4ab | No | +354 | $322 | $322 | 1 | 06-25 12:33 |
| Pink-Bail-Nursery 0xa2f8…ad01 | No | +346 | $315 | $315 | 1 | 06-25 12:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x7595…4646 | No | +345 | $314 | $314 | 1 | 06-25 12:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xf9c8…7cb6 | No | +344 | $286 | $286 | 1 | 06-26 02:08 |
| Brilliant-Assistance 0xe923…3293 | No | +344 | $286 | $286 | 1 | 06-26 02:12 |
| Jealous-Loophole 0x29ef…e45c | No | +317 | $263 | $263 | 1 | 06-26 02:09 |
| Forsaken-Queen 0xbcad…d11f | No | +315 | $287 | $287 | 1 | 06-25 12:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x9d28…7a06 | No | +309 | $281 | $281 | 1 | 06-25 12:34 |
| Attractive-Restroom 0x6bda…8b9f | No | +302 | $275 | $275 | 1 | 06-25 12:36 |
| Whopping-Mosquito 0xf4d0…4637 | No | +300 | $263 | $263 | 2 | 07-17 23:57 |
| Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | +240 | $21 | $21 | 2 | 06-28 01:15 |
| Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | +192 | $179 | $179 | 3 | 06-17 11:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x65d9…d955 | Yes | +125 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-21 18:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x5659…5d66 | Yes | +110 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-18 19:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x0059…1626 | Yes | +100 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-15 23:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b58…2cc8 | Yes | +43 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-01 18:52 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +40 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-26 02:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-18 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 3 | 06-26 02:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +30 | $27 | $27 | 3 | 06-26 15:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x172f…3882 | Yes | +25 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-20 09:17 |
| Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 2 | 07-07 05:02 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 07-19 04:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xe9f2…f982 | Yes | +18 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-19 04:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | +15 | $1 | $2 | 4 | 08-05 17:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-08 10:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-05 17:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8dc…7416 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 19:24 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 02:11 |
| Circular-Coverage 0x07e0…e1e8 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 00:52 |
| Concrete-Nasal 0xed0c…79a7 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 15:36 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 17:26:38 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xe0a455… |
| 08-05 17:26:38 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xe0a455… |
| 08-02 21:29:48 | Spanish-Prostacyclin 0xec15…3f9e | No | SELL | 31 | 94¢ | $29 | 0x43490a… |
| 08-02 21:29:48 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x43490a… |
| 08-02 21:29:48 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 875 | 94¢ | $822 | 0x43490a… |
| 08-02 21:29:48 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | BUY | 930 | 94¢ | $874 | 0x43490a… |
| 08-02 17:51:09 | (anonymous) 0x7a63…b4ef | Yes | SELL | 72 | 6¢ | $4 | 0xf66d85… |
| 08-02 17:51:09 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 72 | 94¢ | $67 | 0xf66d85… |
| 07-25 23:36:07 | Red-Heat 0xf71b…f922 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x25ca6d… |
| 07-25 23:36:07 | Irresponsible-Bibliography 0xd4b8…7bf1 | No | SELL | 10 | 92¢ | $9 | 0x25ca6d… |
| 07-21 18:56:00 | Red-Heat 0xf71b…f922 | Yes | SELL | 125 | 8¢ | $10 | 0xf69fa0… |
| 07-21 18:56:00 | (anonymous) 0x65d9…d955 | Yes | BUY | 125 | 8¢ | $10 | 0xf69fa0… |
| 07-20 11:12:22 | Spanish-Prostacyclin 0xec15…3f9e | No | SELL | 19 | 95¢ | $18 | 0x2bc2cc… |
| 07-20 11:12:22 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 26 | 95¢ | $25 | 0x2bc2cc… |
| 07-20 11:12:22 | Fabulous-Lark-Hippopotamus 0x1044…8ceb | Yes | SELL | 45 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x2bc2cc… |
| 07-20 09:17:27 | (anonymous) 0x172f…3882 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xd6edf2… |
| 07-20 09:17:27 | Red-Heat 0xf71b…f922 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xd6edf2… |
| 07-19 04:19:45 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 97 | 7¢ | $7 | 0x3dc62c… |
| 07-19 04:19:45 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 97 | 93¢ | $90 | 0x3dc62c… |
| 07-19 04:19:09 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x3e713c… |
| 07-19 04:19:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x3e713c… |
| 07-19 04:19:06 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x7f4ddd… |
| 07-19 04:19:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x7f4ddd… |
| 07-19 04:14:10 | (anonymous) 0xe9f2…f982 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xd58a09… |
| 07-19 04:14:10 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xd58a09… |
| 07-19 04:14:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xd58a09… |
| 07-18 17:04:36 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 287 | 97¢ | $278 | 0x25e06b… |
| 07-18 17:04:36 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 97 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x25e06b… |
| 07-18 17:04:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x25e06b… |
| 07-18 17:04:36 | Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | BUY | 414 | 97¢ | $400 | 0x25e06b… |
| 07-18 14:26:25 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 515 | 97¢ | $500 | 0x5b675e… |
| 07-18 14:26:25 | Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | BUY | 515 | 97¢ | $500 | 0x5b675e… |
| 07-18 14:26:22 | Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | BUY | 309 | 97¢ | $300 | 0x1bc1a1… |
| 07-18 14:26:22 | Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | BUY | 300 | 3¢ | $9 | 0x1bc1a1… |
| 07-18 14:26:22 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x1bc1a1… |
| 07-18 14:26:19 | Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | BUY | 522 | 96¢ | $500 | 0xdfb19d… |
| 07-18 14:26:19 | Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xdfb19d… |
| 07-18 14:26:19 | (anonymous) 0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xdfb19d… |
| 07-18 14:26:19 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xdfb19d… |
| 07-18 14:26:19 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 328 | 96¢ | $315 | 0xdfb19d… |
| 07-17 23:57:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x7e47a6… |
| 07-17 23:57:33 | Whopping-Mosquito 0xf4d0…4637 | No | BUY | 100 | 93¢ | $93 | 0x7e47a6… |
| 07-17 23:57:33 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 110 | 93¢ | $102 | 0x7e47a6… |
| 07-17 10:11:15 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 51 | 94¢ | $48 | 0x7731eb… |
| 07-17 10:11:15 | Spanish-Prostacyclin 0xec15…3f9e | No | BUY | 51 | 94¢ | $48 | 0x7731eb… |
| 07-15 23:35:19 | (anonymous) 0x0059…1626 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x38a40c… |
| 07-15 23:35:19 | Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | SELL | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x38a40c… |
| 07-12 11:06:53 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x3ddc36… |
| 07-12 11:06:53 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | Yes | SELL | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x3ddc36… |
| 07-10 10:33:13 | (anonymous) 0x0762…8e99 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x5f525e… |
| 07-10 10:33:13 | Irresponsible-Bibliography 0xd4b8…7bf1 | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x5f525e… |
| 07-09 23:42:14 | Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xf3ade5… |
| 07-09 23:42:14 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | BUY | 100 | 97¢ | $97 | 0xf3ade5… |
| 07-08 10:55:31 | (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x125b8c… |
| 07-08 10:55:31 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x125b8c… |
| 07-07 10:07:28 | (anonymous) 0xf2e8…e187 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3431e3… |
| 07-07 10:07:28 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 14 | 95¢ | $14 | 0x3431e3… |
| 07-07 05:02:16 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xa73138… |
| 07-07 05:02:16 | (anonymous) 0x6ac2…99bf | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xa73138… |
| 07-05 16:23:50 | (anonymous) 0x9fc3…1f1f | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x92c2f2… |
| 07-05 16:23:50 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x92c2f2… |
| 07-05 06:09:29 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 17 | 94¢ | $16 | 0x3eb38b… |
| 07-05 06:09:29 | (anonymous) 0x9fc3…1f1f | Yes | SELL | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3eb38b… |
| 07-01 18:52:52 | (anonymous) 0x0762…8e99 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9986ce… |
| 07-01 18:52:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9986ce… |
| 07-01 18:52:20 | (anonymous) 0x0762…8e99 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9845d2… |
| 07-01 18:52:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9845d2… |
| 07-01 18:52:10 | (anonymous) 0x3b58…2cc8 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x48c5e4… |
| 07-01 18:52:10 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x48c5e4… |
| 07-01 18:52:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 27 | 93¢ | $25 | 0x48c5e4… |
| 07-01 18:52:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x48c5e4… |
| 07-01 18:52:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x57eb27… |
| 07-01 18:52:10 | (anonymous) 0x6ac2…99bf | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x57eb27… |
| 06-30 12:47:11 | (anonymous) 0xf2e8…e187 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x61fa3d… |
| 06-30 12:47:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x61fa3d… |
| 06-30 02:40:38 | Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x417df4… |
| 06-30 02:40:38 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x417df4… |
| 06-28 01:15:38 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0xdfb3bc… |
| 06-28 01:15:38 | Rewarding-Subset 0x7399…46d6 | No | SELL | 100 | 92¢ | $92 | 0xdfb3bc… |
| 06-28 01:15:38 | Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 8¢ | $8 | 0xdfb3bc… |
| 06-28 01:15:38 | Red-Heat 0xf71b…f922 | Yes | SELL | 241 | 8¢ | $20 | 0xdfb3bc… |
| 06-28 01:15:38 | Noted-Cenotaph 0x8696…9101 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xdfb3bc… |
| 06-28 01:15:38 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0xdfb3bc… |
| 06-27 02:34:41 | Noted-Cenotaph 0x8696…9101 | No | SELL | 9 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x4ef1e6… |
| 06-27 02:34:41 | Deadly-Gauge 0x3728…2707 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x4ef1e6… |
| 06-27 02:34:41 | (anonymous) 0x3d05…acde | Yes | SELL | 15 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x4ef1e6… |
| 06-26 19:24:16 | (anonymous) 0xe8dc…7416 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xea0c82… |
| 06-26 19:24:16 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | BUY | 10 | 90¢ | $9 | 0xea0c82… |
| 06-26 15:42:23 | Deadly-Gauge 0x3728…2707 | No | SELL | 7 | 91¢ | $6 | 0x3564f4… |
| 06-26 15:42:23 | Gleeful-Box 0xabfb…12e5 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x3564f4… |
| 06-26 15:36:23 | Gleeful-Box 0xabfb…12e5 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x4bd3df… |
| 06-26 15:36:23 | Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | BUY | 140 | 9¢ | $13 | 0x4bd3df… |
| 06-26 15:36:23 | Noted-Cenotaph 0x8696…9101 | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x4bd3df… |
| 06-26 15:36:23 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x4bd3df… |
| 06-26 15:36:23 | Concrete-Nasal 0xed0c…79a7 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x4bd3df… |
| 06-26 15:36:23 | Deadly-Gauge 0x3728…2707 | No | BUY | 12 | 91¢ | $11 | 0x4bd3df… |
| 06-26 15:36:23 | Rewarding-Subset 0x7399…46d6 | No | BUY | 100 | 91¢ | $91 | 0x4bd3df… |
| 06-26 05:31:10 | (anonymous) 0x7133…b832 | No | SELL | 408 | 91¢ | $371 | 0xf17c56… |
| 06-26 05:31:10 | (anonymous) 0xf3e2…ff03 | Yes | SELL | 408 | 9¢ | $37 | 0xf17c56… |
| 06-26 05:29:56 | (anonymous) 0xf3e2…ff03 | Yes | SELL | 498 | 10¢ | $50 | 0x7befb6… |