Realized P&L
+$188
Unrealized P&L
+$30
Hit rate
36.1%
Resolved
10
Trades
43,852
lifetime
Volume
$180.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$192
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-12
last 06-01 13:11
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
77% 89% +$222
Other
23% 0% $-35
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
53 active days in 12wk • peak 2391 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +33 $16 62¢ $21 +$4 06-01 11:31
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes +93 $15 14¢ $13 $-2 05-28 19:36
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes -99 $-24 12¢ $-12 +$12 06-01 11:40
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes -62 $-13 18¢ $-11 +$2 05-31 19:52
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes -50 $-9 20¢ $-10 $-1 06-01 11:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -35 $-23 30¢ $-10 +$13 06-01 08:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -72 $-10 14¢ $-10 +$1 05-31 19:38
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -20 $-10 46¢ $-9 +$1 06-01 12:41
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes -23 $-12 40¢ $-9 +$3 05-28 09:56
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes -99 $-15 $-9 +$6 05-31 21:33
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes -82 $-16 11¢ $-9 +$7 05-28 20:25
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +52 $12 16¢ $8 $-4 05-29 05:18
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes -93 $-13 $-8 +$5 05-28 06:13
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes -58 $-15 12¢ $-7 +$8 06-01 00:48
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +50 $12 14¢ $7 $-5 05-31 07:56
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes +99 $11 $5 $-6 06-01 12:30
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +8 $5 66¢ $5 +$0 05-31 17:32
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +26 $11 16¢ $4 $-7 06-01 04:34
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +34 $7 12¢ $4 $-3 05-30 23:27
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes +61 $5 $4 $-1 05-29 06:05
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes +19 $4 17¢ $3 $-0 05-31 22:58
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Yes +23 $2 12¢ $3 +$0 05-29 08:54
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes +55 $3 $2 $-1 06-01 12:01
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes +47 $4 $2 $-2 05-31 18:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes -22 $-5 $-2 +$3 05-31 06:03
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes +23 $2 $1 $-1 06-01 12:05
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes +14 $1 $1 +$0 05-31 17:41
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +14 $1 $1 $-0 06-01 11:03
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes -1 $-0 86¢ $-1 $-1 05-29 09:47
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes +13 $2 $1 $-1 06-01 02:44