Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
open
Total volume
$49,992
Trades
425
Unique wallets
150
Liquidity
$14,023
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-27 03:48
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $2 | $283 | $281 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $23 | $780 | $757 |
| 🐟 Fish | 39 | $21 | $9.7K | $9.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 93 | $1.3K | $13.2K | $11.9K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $6 | $49 | $43 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $51 | $994 | $943 |
| Median | 14 | $1 | $163 | $162 |
| Below median | 6 | $63 | $373 | $310 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $5 | $768 | $763 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $15 | $13 | +$2 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | — | $687 | $687 |
| unranked | 104 | $1.2K | $20.9K | $19.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | +616 | $593 | $593 | 8 | 07-01 16:13 |
| Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | +385 | $361 | $1,121 | 8 | 07-16 21:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xafcf…9964 | Yes | +283 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-08 22:55 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +115 | $2 | $7 | 7 | 07-05 16:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x4caf…b74a | Yes | +70 | $4 | $4 | 6 | 06-30 22:04 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +64 | $62 | $62 | 1 | 07-02 20:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x5a69…81a8 | Yes | +57 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-18 19:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x0fe0…9c67 | No | +56 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 07-25 23:33 |
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | Yes | +46 | $1 | $2 | 2 | 07-08 15:11 |
| Untimely-Macrofauna 0x403d…b04d | Yes | +42 | $-0 | $2 | 5 | 07-19 04:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x7b14…f682 | No | +41 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 07-16 21:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xe9f2…f982 | Yes | +38 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-19 04:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8dc…7416 | Yes | +32 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 19:24 |
| Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | +24 | $-1 | $3 | 10 | 07-27 03:48 |
| Cumbersome-Bestseller 0x738f…88c4 | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-04 21:17 |
| Powerless-Pig 0x3dab…e5d0 | No | +18 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 06-22 15:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x589f…4046 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 19:13 |
| Concerned-Wing 0x5874…05f7 | Yes | +16 | $0 | $0 | 6 | 07-27 01:45 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +13 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 06-26 19:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xa91f…c096 | No | +9 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-23 06:07 |
| Unlined-Cassock 0xf41f…1f7a | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-05 16:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x3c7e…8ce3 | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-24 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xbea2…334d | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-26 12:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x6d08…39cc | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-27 01:45 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +2 | $-0 | $0 | 2 | 07-25 23:33 |
| Skeletal-Faithful 0x3724…02df | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-23 14:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xd57d…faaf | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-24 06:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x49ba…ebec | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-26 07:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x8021…6189 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 20:35 |
| Subdued-Ascot 0x0637…1e31 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-20 23:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x8a3f…83f6 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-27 08:59 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 03:48:36 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4de04b… |
| 07-27 03:48:36 | (anonymous) 0x5bdf…42de | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x4de04b… |
| 07-27 01:45:36 | (anonymous) 0x6d08…39cc | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x70e4e2… |
| 07-27 01:45:36 | Concerned-Wing 0x5874…05f7 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x70e4e2… |
| 07-26 12:37:00 | Concerned-Wing 0x5874…05f7 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x65eaca… |
| 07-26 12:37:00 | (anonymous) 0xbea2…334d | No | BUY | 3 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x65eaca… |
| 07-26 07:19:42 | (anonymous) 0x49ba…ebec | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x360e5c… |
| 07-26 07:19:42 | Concerned-Wing 0x5874…05f7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x360e5c… |
| 07-25 23:33:42 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x7c410b… |
| 07-25 23:33:42 | Irresponsible-Bibliography 0xd4b8…7bf1 | No | SELL | 72 | 99¢ | $71 | 0x7c410b… |
| 07-25 23:33:42 | (anonymous) 0x0fe0…9c67 | No | BUY | 56 | 99¢ | $55 | 0x7c410b… |
| 07-25 23:33:42 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7c410b… |
| 07-25 05:40:03 | Concerned-Wing 0x5874…05f7 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdbc60b… |
| 07-25 05:40:03 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdbc60b… |
| 07-24 06:38:58 | Concerned-Wing 0x5874…05f7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x12fffb… |
| 07-24 06:38:58 | (anonymous) 0xd57d…faaf | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x12fffb… |
| 07-24 05:26:22 | Concerned-Wing 0x5874…05f7 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xbb2065… |
| 07-24 05:26:22 | (anonymous) 0x3c7e…8ce3 | No | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0xbb2065… |
| 07-24 01:58:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x3e6e44… |
| 07-24 01:58:18 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 9 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x3e6e44… |
| 07-23 14:41:42 | Skeletal-Faithful 0x3724…02df | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x5766a0… |
| 07-23 14:41:42 | Irresponsible-Bibliography 0xd4b8…7bf1 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x5766a0… |
| 07-23 06:07:52 | (anonymous) 0xa91f…c096 | No | BUY | 9 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x7741e7… |
| 07-23 06:07:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7741e7… |
| 07-19 19:03:00 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdced19… |
| 07-19 19:03:00 | Joyous-Freckle 0x4e5a…5995 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdced19… |
| 07-19 19:03:00 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdced19… |
| 07-19 04:13:54 | (anonymous) 0xe9f2…f982 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x7560d6… |
| 07-19 04:13:54 | Untimely-Macrofauna 0x403d…b04d | Yes | SELL | 8 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x7560d6… |
| 07-18 19:01:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5fe382… |
| 07-18 19:01:58 | (anonymous) 0x5a69…81a8 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5fe382… |
| 07-18 19:01:58 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5fe382… |
| 07-18 19:01:58 | Untimely-Macrofauna 0x403d…b04d | Yes | SELL | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5fe382… |
| 07-16 21:14:29 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 141 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x29c3d5… |
| 07-16 21:14:29 | Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | SELL | 37 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x29c3d5… |
| 07-16 21:14:29 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 86 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x29c3d5… |
| 07-16 21:14:29 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 66 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x29c3d5… |
| 07-16 21:14:29 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | SELL | 385 | 99¢ | $380 | 0x29c3d5… |
| 07-16 21:14:29 | Untimely-Macrofauna 0x403d…b04d | Yes | SELL | 14 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x29c3d5… |
| 07-16 21:14:29 | (anonymous) 0x7b14…f682 | No | BUY | 41 | 99¢ | $40 | 0x29c3d5… |
| 07-15 16:32:43 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x81bea7… |
| 07-15 16:32:43 | Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x81bea7… |
| 07-13 09:28:59 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x259ae3… |
| 07-13 09:28:59 | Slushy-Corral 0x2aa0…ee01 | No | SELL | 16 | 99¢ | $16 | 0x259ae3… |
| 07-12 22:04:40 | (anonymous) 0x6978…eb8c | Yes | SELL | 83 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf14b46… |
| 07-12 22:04:40 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 83 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf14b46… |
| 07-08 22:55:37 | (anonymous) 0xafcf…9964 | Yes | BUY | 283 | 1¢ | $3 | 0xec0b29… |
| 07-08 22:55:37 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xec0b29… |
| 07-08 22:55:37 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 169 | 1¢ | $2 | 0xec0b29… |
| 07-08 22:55:37 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 98 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xec0b29… |
| 07-08 22:55:37 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xec0b29… |
| 07-08 19:21:50 | Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | BUY | 37 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x9bdd64… |
| 07-08 19:21:50 | Irresponsible-Bibliography 0xd4b8…7bf1 | No | BUY | 37 | 100¢ | $37 | 0x9bdd64… |
| 07-08 15:11:28 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | Yes | SELL | 98 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5bfa18… |
| 07-08 15:11:28 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 98 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5bfa18… |
| 07-08 10:22:20 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 67 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x41a152… |
| 07-08 10:22:20 | (anonymous) 0x6978…eb8c | Yes | BUY | 83 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x41a152… |
| 07-08 10:22:20 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x41a152… |
| 07-07 10:07:04 | (anonymous) 0xf2e8…e187 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe79149… |
| 07-07 10:07:04 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe79149… |
| 07-06 11:31:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x079fad… |
| 07-06 11:31:11 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | Yes | BUY | 144 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x079fad… |
| 07-06 11:31:11 | Carefree-Beard 0xae52…405c | Yes | SELL | 350 | 1¢ | $4 | 0x079fad… |
| 07-06 11:31:11 | Untimely-Macrofauna 0x403d…b04d | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x079fad… |
| 07-06 11:31:11 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 86 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x079fad… |
| 07-05 16:34:14 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9cc502… |
| 07-05 16:34:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9cc502… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | Unlined-Cassock 0xf41f…1f7a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 19 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 139 | 98¢ | $136 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-05 16:34:10 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0a17c5… |
| 07-04 21:17:07 | Cumbersome-Bestseller 0x738f…88c4 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xa1e5ef… |
| 07-04 21:17:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 19 | 95¢ | $18 | 0xa1e5ef… |
| 07-03 22:54:44 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0xe30fc1… |
| 07-03 22:54:44 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe30fc1… |
| 07-03 22:54:44 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 31 | 96¢ | $30 | 0xe30fc1… |
| 07-03 05:57:08 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x70c947… |
| 07-03 05:57:08 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x70c947… |
| 07-03 05:57:08 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x70c947… |
| 07-02 20:04:11 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x27687d… |
| 07-02 20:04:11 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x27687d… |
| 07-02 20:03:49 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x6d6451… |
| 07-02 20:03:49 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x6d6451… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | Quixotic-Story 0x7dc9…525e | Yes | SELL | 121 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | BUY | 64 | 96¢ | $62 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | Carefree-Beard 0xae52…405c | Yes | BUY | 350 | 3¢ | $10 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-02 20:03:32 | (anonymous) 0x91b3…77d6 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x76235d… |
| 07-01 16:13:11 | Playful-Badger 0x86ba…3694 | No | SELL | 11 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x47fe62… |
| 07-01 16:13:11 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 11 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x47fe62… |
| 07-01 12:36:26 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 62 | 97¢ | $60 | 0x6bc656… |
| 07-01 12:36:26 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x6bc656… |
| 07-01 12:36:26 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 57 | 97¢ | $55 | 0x6bc656… |