Far-Off-Webinar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$515

Unrealized P&L

-$75

Hit rate

88.0%

Resolved

379

Trades

2,309

lifetime

Volume

$385.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$167

Open exposure

$3.77K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 10:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

63% 93% -$638

Politics

19% 77% -$495

Crypto

14% 95% +$325

Tech

3% 100% +$160

Sports

0% 73% +$133

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-3,533	-$3,215	96¢	$-3395	-$180	10-27 10:01
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+244	$235	95¢	$232	-$3	10-01 13:56
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-800	-$248	18¢	$-140	+$108	09-10 16:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026	8	$31.7K	21,243	10,561	+10,682	No	+$114	03-31 19:02
nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	26	$19.6K	20,392	0	+20,392	No	+$818	03-03 07:58
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	39	$18.4K	8,324	11,857	-3,533	open	—	10-27 10:01
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	15	$16.5K	16,747	0	+16,747	No	+$219	01-30 15:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	21	$15.7K	8,030	8,030	+0	No	+$245	09-18 07:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	313	$13.6K	18,482	19,936	-1,454	Yes	-$1,747	04-26 09:58
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	9	$11.6K	11,666	0	+11,666	No	+$65	04-01 19:48
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	75	$9.9K	10,019	10,019	+0	No	-$2,485	07-30 08:52
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$9.4K	9,505	0	+9,505	No	+$67	03-31 14:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$8.9K	9,010	9,010	+0	Yes	-$8,880	04-08 06:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$8.8K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$50	04-05 13:22
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	7	$8.6K	4,351	4,351	+0	No	+$49	05-23 14:09
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	39	$7.6K	5,221	2,560	+2,661	No	+$124	06-21 20:58
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	38	$7.0K	7,223	0	+7,223	No	+$262	02-15 17:35
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	19	$6.6K	4,358	2,305	+2,053	No	+$62	04-29 01:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	52	$6.3K	4,382	1,922	+2,460	Yes	+$46	04-30 17:53
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	23	$5.1K	3,748	1,406	+2,342	No	+$57	09-28 16:20
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$4.9K	4,906	0	+4,906	No	+$55	04-01 11:05
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?	5	$4.7K	2,413	2,412	+0	No	+$86	04-28 07:49
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	11	$4.6K	2,316	2,316	+0	No	+$23	04-30 02:55
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	4	$4.0K	2,065	2,065	+0	No	+$28	04-07 23:21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	15	$4.0K	2,355	1,702	+653	No	+$50	05-30 01:43
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	11	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$43	04-29 08:45
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?	18	$3.8K	4,354	0	+4,354	No	+$543	03-01 18:28
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 24?	47	$3.6K	1,818	1,818	+0	No	+$15	07-24 15:45
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	40	$3.6K	1,879	1,879	+0	No	+$154	07-22 04:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	11	$3.1K	6,758	0	+6,758	Yes	+$3,704	04-07 21:04
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	22	$3.0K	2,009	1,294	+714	No	-$83	06-28 09:24
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	12	$3.0K	1,493	1,493	+0	No	+$22	05-26 10:07
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	5	$2.9K	2,951	0	+2,951	No	+$29	04-30 20:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 10:01:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xfb9ffd…
10-22 16:58:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	350	96¢	$335	0x8f730b…
10-22 11:01:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	70	96¢	$67	0x40e85c…
10-22 09:48:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$191	0x78b30a…
10-19 08:33:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	80	95¢	$76	0xe655a6…
10-16 11:52:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	250	96¢	$239	0x96f480…
10-15 14:27:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	300	96¢	$286	0x924342…
10-12 19:35:24	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	560	14¢	$76	0x530b8a…
10-11 16:39:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	150	97¢	$145	0x7c4b40…
10-09 10:25:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	500	97¢	$485	0x59c0c6…
10-07 11:11:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	500	97¢	$486	0x109b18…
10-07 07:19:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x21c351…
10-07 07:17:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xa87dd0…
10-03 20:24:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0xb36287…
10-03 20:13:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	150	97¢	$146	0x581b09…
10-02 09:48:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0xda5d3d…
10-01 13:57:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	2,173	97¢	$2,103	0x045bb0…
10-01 13:56:38	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xa045de…
10-01 13:56:24	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x84b5a7…
10-01 13:56:08	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xc15507…
10-01 13:01:41	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	59	96¢	$57	0x4af2e5…
10-01 13:01:27	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$33	0xd82cd3…
10-01 13:01:12	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x3d23d4…
09-29 00:00:17	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x8786ae…
09-28 23:51:57	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	116	100¢	$116	0x2938c5…
09-28 17:47:11	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x4668fc…
09-28 17:25:47	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x685533…
09-28 16:20:57	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x999934…
09-25 09:49:27	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xec8863…
09-24 09:19:03	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$696	0xe1c786…
09-24 09:14:02	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xda55db…
09-22 14:06:25	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x985f53…
09-22 14:05:04	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x22ba8a…
09-21 15:10:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$965	0xd95fcd…
09-21 08:29:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	757	97¢	$731	0xf428bd…
09-19 10:42:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	150	96¢	$144	0xbe2a70…
09-18 13:11:26	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	58	8¢	$4	0xb7d558…
09-18 08:10:00	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0x5dee8d…
09-18 07:58:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	945	95¢	$902	0xa0add5…
09-18 07:57:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	899	100¢	$894	0x97240b…
09-18 07:55:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$995	0x63f433…
09-18 07:46:24	Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,250	1¢	$10	0x5bbbc4…
09-17 16:13:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$199	0xf9ff57…
09-17 11:11:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	860	99¢	$855	0x223da8…
09-15 07:49:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1,106	99¢	$1,099	0x807944…
09-15 03:14:57	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	SELL	121	96¢	$117	0xeec319…
09-14 13:19:33	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	SELL	62	96¢	$60	0xcb6d7b…
09-14 10:19:39	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	SELL	495	96¢	$477	0x24ad7c…
09-13 12:50:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	360	99¢	$357	0x63fcae…
09-11 21:05:40	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	77	6¢	$4	0x88aabc…
09-10 16:52:45	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	190	95¢	$181	0xa215c3…
09-10 16:17:15	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	800	31¢	$248	0xd972c7…
09-10 11:05:42	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	157	94¢	$148	0x822477…
09-10 11:05:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	150	99¢	$149	0xf89589…
09-10 09:56:36	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	77	5¢	$4	0xfa9767…
09-10 09:29:15	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	74	94¢	$70	0xff22c3…
09-10 09:27:27	Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$11	0xf3f884…
09-10 09:26:46	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	287	5¢	$13	0x110640…
09-10 09:25:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4b8575…
09-09 06:46:30	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	212	99¢	$210	0x80b5b1…
09-09 06:46:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	330	99¢	$328	0x945943…
09-07 16:49:46	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x028319…
09-07 16:47:12	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	1,599	99¢	$1,585	0xb236e8…
09-07 16:46:55	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	299	99¢	$296	0x4a3634…
09-07 16:46:15	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0x2bf6e7…
09-07 16:46:00	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x579b4c…
09-07 16:45:46	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x93b6e5…
09-07 16:45:33	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x57d69c…
09-07 16:45:19	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x989364…
09-07 16:45:06	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x514c7c…
09-07 16:43:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	3,025	99¢	$3,001	0x354048…
09-03 06:42:01	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	156	94¢	$147	0x487998…
09-03 06:38:30	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa4ab3d…
09-03 06:38:06	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0x18fe7d…
09-03 06:37:48	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0x5dcabc…
09-03 06:36:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0xd20082…
08-31 06:23:00	NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	183	100¢	$182	0xe314bc…
08-30 17:00:27	NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xf934f5…
08-30 16:57:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x4587ab…
08-30 16:51:36	NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x0d10bc…
08-30 16:51:12	NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$201	0x22cb35…
08-30 14:57:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xbb84ae…
08-30 10:41:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0xa92d5f…
08-30 09:00:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	261	100¢	$260	0xd54cf5…
08-28 15:27:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdc71b9…
08-27 19:17:28	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe933bb…
08-27 19:17:28	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xb29258…
08-27 19:17:24	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0xc98f07…
08-27 18:57:55	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	103	100¢	$103	0xfe10ae…
08-27 18:21:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x515450…
08-27 17:27:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xc53d58…
08-27 05:48:19	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0xcff6aa…
08-22 16:41:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	904	98¢	$889	0xe45899…
08-21 13:38:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$13	0x1202ee…
08-21 12:36:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xa5e8fc…
08-21 12:34:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0xf26402…
08-21 12:30:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	142	98¢	$139	0xead0a8…
08-21 01:40:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	98¢	$171	0x3c44e9…
08-20 16:58:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeb74c7…
08-20 16:37:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5a8e65…