Realized P&L
+$83
Unrealized P&L
-$64
Hit rate
59.0%
Resolved
9
Trades
4,985
lifetime
Volume
$2.54M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$509
Open exposure
$114.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-29 12:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
71%
67%
+$10
Other
25%
83%
+$72
Crypto
4%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
—
Tech
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk
• peak 62 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | No | +28,739 | $28,592 | 100¢ | $28.7K | +$90 | 06-30 07:55 | |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | No | +17,282 | $17,150 | 100¢ | $17.3K | +$115 | 06-28 11:59 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,000 | $8,780 | 86¢ | $8.6K | $-230 | 06-26 15:56 | |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? | No | +5,700 | $5,674 | 100¢ | $5.7K | +$14 | 06-28 14:01 | |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? | No | +5,624 | $5,609 | 100¢ | $5.6K | +$4 | 06-30 07:55 | |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? | No | +5,000 | $4,979 | 100¢ | $5.0K | +$16 | 06-28 14:03 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +5,000 | $4,682 | 94¢ | $4.7K | +$1 | 06-28 12:01 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +4,601 | $4,488 | 96¢ | $4.4K | $-76 | 06-27 17:33 | |
| Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? | No | +4,000 | $3,992 | 100¢ | $4.0K | +$0 | 06-28 14:32 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | -4,000 | $-3,738 | 96¢ | $-3820 | $-82 | 06-05 18:59 | |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | No | +3,500 | $3,486 | 100¢ | $3.5K | +$8 | 06-28 14:03 | |
| Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? | No | +3,077 | $3,070 | 100¢ | $3.1K | +$1 | 06-29 12:29 | |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? | No | +3,014 | $3,009 | 100¢ | $3.0K | $-1 | 06-29 12:29 | |
| Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? | No | +2,284 | $2,281 | 100¢ | $2.3K | $-2 | 06-29 12:29 | |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | No | +2,200 | $2,186 | 100¢ | $2.2K | +$12 | 06-14 23:58 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | +2,000 | $1,986 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$12 | 06-14 00:35 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,967 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$29 | 06-27 05:22 | |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,880 | 94¢ | $1.9K | $-10 | 06-28 14:00 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,347 | $1,260 | 95¢ | $1.3K | +$23 | 06-29 12:32 | |
| Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? | No | +1,000 | $999 | 100¢ | $998 | $-1 | 06-28 12:04 | |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | No | +800 | $798 | 100¢ | $799 | +$1 | 06-28 12:02 | |
| Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? | No | +600 | $599 | 99¢ | $595 | $-5 | 06-28 12:05 | |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | +500 | $499 | 100¢ | $500 | +$0 | 06-25 04:55 | |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? | No | +500 | $498 | 100¢ | $500 | +$1 | 06-25 10:55 | |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? | No | +500 | $494 | 100¢ | $499 | +$5 | 06-24 05:26 | |
| Will Bank of America fail by June 30, 2026? | No | +494 | $493 | 99¢ | $489 | $-4 | 06-28 12:06 | |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? | No | -440 | $-457 | 100¢ | $-439 | +$18 | 06-27 05:21 | |
| Will Wells Fargo fail by June 30, 2026? | No | +370 | $369 | 100¢ | $368 | $-1 | 06-28 12:07 | |
| Will Lloyds fail by June 30, 2026? | No | +330 | $329 | 100¢ | $329 | $-0 | 06-24 05:22 | |
| Will BNY fail by June 30, 2026? | No | +320 | $319 | 99¢ | $317 | $-2 | 06-28 12:07 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 1,706 | $1.21M | 638,593 | 594,123 | +44,470 | open | — | 01-28 19:35 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 717 | $271.9K | 144,888 | 141,986 | +2,902 | open | — | 03-24 23:01 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 362 | $112.8K | 60,030 | 59,613 | +416 | open | — | 06-27 17:33 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 184 | $90.0K | 50,941 | 40,000 | +10,941 | open | — | 04-28 13:43 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026 | 142 | $80.6K | 42,114 | 40,134 | +1,980 | open | — | 02-12 16:04 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | 15 | $42.1K | 21,325 | 21,325 | +0 | open | — | 06-07 00:53 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 16 | $40.3K | 41,000 | 41,000 | +0 | open | — | 06-07 00:53 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | 28 | $34.6K | 31,739 | 3,000 | +28,739 | open | — | 06-30 07:55 |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | 183 | $21.6K | 10,192 | 11,687 | -1,495 | open | — | 04-28 13:46 |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | 13 | $20.1K | 18,782 | 1,500 | +17,282 | open | — | 06-28 11:59 |
| will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the february meeting | 4 | $19.5K | 19,582 | 0 | +19,582 | open | — | 02-13 10:40 |
| Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | 138 | $18.5K | 11,732 | 7,148 | +4,583 | open | — | 05-25 13:43 |
| will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february | 66 | $18.4K | 9,065 | 9,355 | -290 | open | — | 02-13 18:48 |
| will russia enter khatnie by february 28 2026 | 43 | $16.5K | 12,836 | 4,477 | +8,358 | open | — | 02-26 21:34 |
| new stranger things episode released by march 31 299 | 5 | $16.3K | 10,000 | 6,394 | +3,606 | open | — | 03-28 02:07 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? | 5 | $15.9K | 9,000 | 7,000 | +2,000 | open | — | 06-27 05:22 |
| bitcoin above 102k on january 16 | 5 | $15.1K | 7,570 | 7,570 | +0 | open | — | 01-15 21:06 |
| new stranger things episode released by april 30 | 79 | $14.7K | 11,915 | 2,915 | +9,000 | open | — | 04-22 18:53 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? | 4 | $14.6K | 7,200 | 7,500 | -300 | open | — | 06-26 06:31 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 10 | $13.9K | 14,000 | 0 | +14,000 | open | — | 04-24 23:08 |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? | 10 | $13.5K | 6,560 | 7,000 | -440 | open | — | 06-27 05:21 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 8 | $10.9K | 10,968 | 0 | +10,968 | open | — | 05-31 17:08 |
| jd vance out as vp by june 30 | 11 | $10.4K | 3,977 | 6,463 | -2,486 | open | — | 06-27 16:16 |
| will russia capture all of prymorske by february 28 2026 | 37 | $9.8K | 6,726 | 7,107 | -381 | open | — | 02-27 22:11 |
| ebola pandemic in 2026 | 2 | $9.3K | 10,000 | 0 | +10,000 | open | — | 06-25 17:23 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 5 | $8.8K | 10,000 | 0 | +10,000 | open | — | 06-26 15:56 |
| will russia test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026 | 27 | $8.6K | 8,800 | 0 | +8,800 | open | — | 03-19 12:02 |
| will the us test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026 | 19 | $8.5K | 7,382 | 1,382 | +6,000 | open | — | 03-24 18:10 |
| nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026 | 13 | $8.1K | 6,100 | 2,100 | +4,000 | open | — | 03-24 18:11 |
| bitcoin above 88k on january 15 | 2 | $7.5K | 7,550 | 0 | +7,550 | open | — | 01-14 19:58 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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