Gleaming-Orient — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.72K

Unrealized P&L

-$154

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

418

Trades

6,725

lifetime

Volume

$3.47M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$516

Open exposure

$46.5K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-07 18:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Politics

67% 92% +$4,935

Other

30% 97% +$3,565

Crypto

3% 88% +$189

Sports

0% 100% +$17

Tech

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-20,000	-$19,800	100¢	$-19970	-$170	06-19 03:19
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-10,000	-$9,900	99¢	$-9935	-$35	04-28 13:53
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-7,500	-$7,455	99¢	$-7399	+$57	05-16 13:40
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	-5,000	-$4,955	100¢	$-4988	-$32	06-02 19:42
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-3,327	-$3,259	98¢	$-3268	-$9	07-02 07:24
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	-997	-$866	95¢	$-948	-$82	09-05 13:05
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	-0	-$118	98¢	$-0	+$118	06-05 18:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1,706	$1.21M	638,593	594,123	+44,470	No	+$1,595	01-28 19:35
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	717	$271.9K	144,888	141,986	+2,902	No	+$136	03-24 23:01
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	550	$182.4K	96,236	99,563	-3,327	open	—	07-02 07:24
Trump out as President by April 30?	184	$90.0K	50,941	40,000	+10,941	No	+$181	04-28 13:43
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	142	$80.6K	42,114	40,134	+1,980	No	+$126	02-12 16:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	127	$73.2K	48,987	28,987	+20,000	No	+$1,638	08-26 22:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	45	$63.6K	35,296	35,296	+0	open	—	09-04 20:45
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	72	$61.7K	32,535	32,535	+0	open	—	09-04 20:48
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	6	$59.4K	20,000	40,000	-20,000	open	—	06-19 03:19
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	22	$56.8K	28,825	28,825	+0	No	+$88	06-07 00:53
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	71	$55.6K	24,500	32,000	-7,500	open	—	05-16 13:40
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	9	$54.6K	25,000	30,000	-5,000	open	—	06-02 19:42
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	20	$49.9K	46,000	46,000	+0	open	—	09-04 20:52
New pandemic in 2026?	33	$41.0K	22,000	22,000	+0	open	—	09-04 20:49
ebola pandemic in 2026	14	$38.4K	20,269	20,269	+0	open	—	07-07 10:49
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	29	$35.0K	32,207	3,000	+29,207	No	+$151	06-30 07:55
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	257	$28.8K	14,500	14,500	+0	No	+$9	07-11 20:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	84	$26.9K	16,935	16,935	+0	open	—	08-25 18:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	29	$26.7K	17,283	17,283	+0	open	—	09-04 20:46
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	20	$22.5K	21,150	1,500	+19,650	No	+$170	06-28 11:59
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	43	$21.8K	11,734	11,734	+0	Yes	+$71	08-02 12:35
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	183	$21.6K	10,192	11,687	-1,495	No	+$25	04-28 13:46
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	141	$21.6K	11,732	10,213	+1,519	No	+$155	05-30 07:36
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	24	$20.2K	10,265	10,265	+0	No	-$46	07-04 09:37
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the february meeting	4	$19.5K	19,582	0	+19,582	Yes	+$59	02-13 10:40
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	15	$18.9K	10,500	8,500	+2,000	No	+$35	06-27 05:22
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	88	$18.6K	10,041	10,041	-0	open	—	06-05 18:59
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	66	$18.4K	9,065	9,355	-290	No	+$10	02-13 18:48
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	10	$17.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	07-03 11:12
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	135	$17.0K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	09-04 20:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-07 18:39:15	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	1,889	95¢	$1,800	0xacde1f…
09-07 18:38:55	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	79	98¢	$77	0x62b001…
09-07 14:54:06	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	800	97¢	$777	0x382949…
09-06 20:55:30	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	152	97¢	$148	0x276f7f…
09-06 18:16:13	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0xae84b7…
09-06 16:02:52	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	84	97¢	$81	0x99ab43…
09-05 21:22:10	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	121	96¢	$116	0xb34180…
09-05 17:23:30	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	267	97¢	$259	0xdea2ba…
09-05 17:23:27	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	300	97¢	$291	0xe26c48…
09-05 16:48:30	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	1,456	98¢	$1,427	0x1dbc17…
09-05 16:47:13	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0x92cf42…
09-05 16:45:33	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	393	75¢	$296	0x7fa7a7…
09-05 16:44:34	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	875	74¢	$645	0x7b1194…
09-05 13:39:55	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	303	80¢	$242	0xa55e19…
09-05 13:35:09	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	80¢	$7	0x0d9312…
09-05 13:34:19	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	80¢	$42	0xdba804…
09-05 13:33:51	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	36	88¢	$31	0x57fdc6…
09-05 13:33:49	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	290	89¢	$257	0x78415a…
09-05 13:33:00	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	633	82¢	$517	0xdff079…
09-05 13:32:12	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	105	80¢	$84	0xae7805…
09-05 13:31:36	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	486	92¢	$446	0x5e9ab2…
09-05 13:14:16	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	94	94¢	$88	0x6791b2…
09-05 13:12:39	Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	615	98¢	$603	0x977af2…
09-05 13:12:09	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	513	94¢	$482	0x8e96b1…
09-05 13:10:24	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	433	95¢	$413	0x81f20f…
09-05 13:09:54	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	340	81¢	$276	0xe2418a…
09-05 13:08:55	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	54	97¢	$52	0x0ea5d0…
09-05 13:07:39	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	465	87¢	$406	0x5b9200…
09-05 13:06:24	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	120	95¢	$114	0xeef8b3…
09-05 13:05:40	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	930	94¢	$872	0x8c9c35…
09-05 08:10:39	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0xed446e…
09-05 06:40:37	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xf26d73…
09-05 06:04:48	Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,006	99¢	$1,990	0x816a19…
09-04 22:50:54	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	500	93¢	$463	0xbcbbdc…
09-04 22:32:36	Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$60	0x033f7f…
09-04 21:07:04	Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	434	99¢	$430	0xf4b63a…
09-04 21:03:37	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	400	94¢	$375	0x9e4564…
09-04 20:57:55	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$383	0x609377…
09-04 20:56:48	Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	450	92¢	$412	0x2c7907…
09-04 20:55:46	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	750	99¢	$743	0x70edb2…
09-04 20:54:48	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	3,000	99¢	$2,964	0xf6d733…
09-04 20:54:10	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	SELL	4,250	99¢	$4,200	0x3dfb18…
09-04 20:53:33	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5,000	91¢	$4,549	0xbfd147…
09-04 20:52:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,811	0xd3f237…
09-04 20:51:55	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6,000	95¢	$5,697	0x10798f…
09-04 20:49:55	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	20,000	93¢	$18,643	0x0f7c1a…
09-04 20:48:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0x5497bb…
09-04 20:48:31	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	4,000	95¢	$3,805	0x921126…
09-04 20:48:07	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	14,987	95¢	$14,276	0xa195b8…
09-04 20:46:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	40¢	$28	0x68412a…
09-04 20:46:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	930	40¢	$372	0x7862ba…
09-04 20:46:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	53¢	$1,056	0x711891…
09-04 20:45:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,000	51¢	$1,540	0xdd93b9…
09-04 20:45:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12,000	91¢	$10,939	0x66149e…
09-04 20:44:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	55¢	$550	0x671af6…
09-04 20:44:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	56¢	$1,120	0x085d0f…
09-04 17:36:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	990	86¢	$851	0x3c0df4…
09-04 17:34:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x016fdc…
09-04 15:17:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x6f5c7e…
09-04 13:56:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x2fdd85…
09-03 16:20:25	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,900	0xb8c112…
09-03 16:19:07	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,904	0x3c4675…
09-03 15:09:03	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x8ac727…
09-03 14:03:13	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0x54ba22…
09-03 12:11:37	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	250	99¢	$247	0xd86b68…
09-03 12:10:52	Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	170	99¢	$169	0xf2af4d…
09-03 00:29:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0xd83324…
09-01 19:11:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	94¢	$9,400	0xa8b65e…
09-01 18:57:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,492	92¢	$1,373	0x20f002…
09-01 18:20:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x4208f2…
09-01 11:42:43	Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,260	99¢	$2,230	0x28e3b8…
09-01 11:40:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$988	0x13a0f8…
08-31 20:35:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,482	0xdbbfd3…
08-31 20:32:27	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,970	0xd8cb12…
08-31 19:18:48	Will Team Spirit Make a Roster Change Before September?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc1d5a3…
08-31 16:14:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0x9f9b2f…
08-31 15:59:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,000	92¢	$7,360	0x384a73…
08-30 16:11:54	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?	No	SELL	4,500	100¢	$4,496	0x831023…
08-30 16:11:25	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xcaba26…
08-30 11:53:24	Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	240	98¢	$236	0xbb3c5b…
08-30 11:50:12	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,968	0x4fdbd1…
08-30 11:47:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0x5b9c84…
08-30 11:44:07	Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	445	99¢	$440	0x4bfca0…
08-30 11:39:52	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?	No	BUY	4,900	100¢	$4,895	0x6144f4…
08-30 11:37:39	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	85	96¢	$82	0x5e1eb7…
08-30 11:35:31	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xa2d4ee…
08-30 11:34:24	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$491	0x468d73…
08-30 00:52:31	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$960	0x601696…
08-29 12:52:06	Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x3b5bfc…
08-29 12:50:42	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	320	99¢	$315	0xb91dfe…
08-29 12:49:25	Will Team Spirit Make a Roster Change Before September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x9f3c50…
08-29 12:48:34	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0xa94998…
08-29 11:35:01	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x5b20a5…
08-28 22:38:21	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x080701…
08-28 22:37:57	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?	No	BUY	230	100¢	$229	0x01466f…
08-28 22:37:06	Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0x5ce3f9…
08-28 22:36:31	Trump out as President by August 31?	No	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xddb340…
08-28 13:16:12	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	559	96¢	$537	0x2fc066…
08-27 21:48:12	Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	370	96¢	$355	0xade652…
08-27 21:47:39	Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	130	97¢	$127	0x8cf16b…