Realized P&L
+$457
Unrealized P&L
-$146
Hit rate
88.6%
Resolved
52
Trades
21,143
lifetime
Volume
$94.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$519
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 00:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Politics
54% 41% +$179
Other
39% 58% +$219
Tech
5% 100% +$24
Crypto
2%
Sports
0% 100% +$35
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 384 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +355 $150 18¢ $66 $-85 06-09 06:48
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No -56 $-32 80¢ $-45 $-12 06-04 15:48
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes +73 $50 60¢ $44 $-6 06-09 21:01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +48 $39 86¢ $41 +$2 06-05 13:49
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes +115 $49 30¢ $35 $-14 06-09 14:33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T No -35 $-32 94¢ $-33 $-1 06-09 20:30
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes +36 $29 80¢ $29 $-0 06-09 22:42
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No -26 $-19 80¢ $-21 $-1 06-01 09:08
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes -22 $-22 91¢ $-20 +$1 06-09 23:17
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +24 $16 64¢ $15 $-1 06-03 05:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $19 38¢ $15 $-4 05-28 12:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -15 $-14 92¢ $-14 $-0 05-31 13:16
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes +39 $18 33¢ $13 $-5 06-04 09:40
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes +37 $21 34¢ $12 $-9 06-09 22:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +70 $15 16¢ $12 $-4 06-07 13:01
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes -12 $-12 91¢ $-11 +$1 06-10 00:00
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No -14 $-11 72¢ $-10 +$1 06-07 20:42
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +10 $10 95¢ $9 $-0 06-06 16:38
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes +10 $9 88¢ $9 +$0 05-28 13:18
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +205 $9 $9 $-1 06-08 10:37
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No -10 $-8 84¢ $-8 +$0 06-09 09:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes -18 $-5 38¢ $-7 $-2 06-08 10:37
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes +10 $7 66¢ $7 $-1 05-28 16:56
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +9 $5 68¢ $6 +$1 05-28 11:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes +17 $10 36¢ $6 $-4 05-31 12:38
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No -8 $-3 66¢ $-5 $-2 06-04 15:43
Netanyahu out by June 30? No -5 $-5 98¢ $-5 $-0 06-04 09:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 06-06 15:48
AWS service disrupted by June 30? Yes +30 $4 15¢ $4 +$0 06-02 17:59
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +17 $7 24¢ $4 $-3 06-08 10:56