Realized P&L
+$457
Unrealized P&L
+$44
Hit rate
88.6%
Resolved
52
Trades
22,837
lifetime
Volume
$105.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$715
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Politics
55% 41% +$179
Other
37% 58% +$219
Tech
5% 100% +$24
Crypto
2%
Sports
0% 100% +$35
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 384 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No -84 $-75 99¢ $-83 $-8 06-20 21:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -58 $-58 99¢ $-58 $-0 06-24 15:37
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes -50 $-47 95¢ $-48 $-1 06-30 09:14
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -65 $-25 70¢ $-46 $-20 06-14 11:05
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +48 $39 89¢ $42 +$4 06-05 13:49
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? No +43 $39 91¢ $39 +$0 06-28 06:09
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No +41 $-17 95¢ $39 +$55 06-23 14:40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +37 $30 88¢ $32 +$2 06-14 11:06
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +29 $24 97¢ $28 +$5 06-25 16:00
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No +36 $26 76¢ $27 +$1 06-24 14:53
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No -24 $-15 100¢ $-24 $-9 06-17 13:47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No -26 $-19 82¢ $-21 $-2 06-01 09:08
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? No +29 $18 70¢ $20 +$2 06-22 22:40
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +20 $17 100¢ $20 +$3 06-16 08:39
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No -20 $-31 97¢ $-19 +$12 06-25 06:22
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +24 $16 72¢ $17 +$1 06-03 05:02
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? Yes -301 $-15 $-17 $-2 06-28 06:20
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +20 $16 74¢ $15 $-1 06-22 23:52
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes +20 $15 72¢ $14 $-1 06-25 12:54
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +26 $14 52¢ $14 +$0 06-11 05:59
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -15 $-14 86¢ $-13 +$1 05-31 13:16
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +78 $-1 14¢ $11 +$12 06-30 16:08
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? No +10 $9 95¢ $9 +$0 06-24 06:54
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? Yes +12 $8 75¢ $9 +$1 06-22 18:08
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +9 $8 98¢ $9 +$1 06-23 14:18
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? No -10 $-9 88¢ $-9 +$0 06-22 17:51
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No +10 $8 84¢ $8 +$0 06-24 12:52
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +30 $9 27¢ $8 $-1 06-20 19:38
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No -10 $-8 82¢ $-8 +$0 06-09 09:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $19 20¢ $8 $-11 05-28 12:52