Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.54K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.45K

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

1,948

Trades

14,086

lifetime

Volume

$139.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$5.76K

30 positions

First seen

2026-07-14

last 10-27 10:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

58% 41% -$1,066

Politics

33% 43% -$269

Crypto

5% 46% -$84

Tech

2% 46% -$107

Sports

1% 70% +$14

Pop-Culture

1% 33% -$31

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 484 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	+328	$175	97¢	$319	+$144	10-01 18:15
lindsay clancy convicted of murder	No	+319	$232	96¢	$306	+$74	09-04 18:39
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	+346	$140	84¢	$291	+$151	10-08 09:36
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	+357	$164	80¢	$287	+$124	10-06 17:56
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	+272	$192	96¢	$261	+$69	10-04 17:07
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	+222	$129	99¢	$220	+$91	09-04 07:20
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	+233	$153	94¢	$217	+$65	10-02 02:10
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+250	$151	84¢	$210	+$59	09-29 22:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+217	$124	96¢	$208	+$85	09-22 13:38
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+314	$258	64¢	$202	-$55	10-02 08:32
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	Yes	+214	$139	86¢	$184	+$45	10-02 00:16
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	+207	$131	87¢	$180	+$49	09-22 20:21
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	+195	$136	92¢	$179	+$44	09-03 21:16
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	No	+204	$180	87¢	$177	-$4	10-02 09:34
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	+261	$168	68¢	$176	+$8	09-13 15:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+185	$138	94¢	$173	+$35	09-04 20:36
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	+249	$170	66¢	$165	-$6	10-01 17:34
will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	+223	$114	74¢	$164	+$50	10-02 08:53
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+254	$179	64¢	$164	-$15	10-08 13:30
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	+197	$115	82¢	$163	+$48	10-03 09:35
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	+161	$94	98¢	$159	+$65	09-21 11:03
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+275	$139	57¢	$158	+$19	09-24 03:19
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	No	+170	$135	92¢	$157	+$23	09-24 15:54
ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	+194	$87	81¢	$157	+$70	09-03 21:46
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	+195	$105	78¢	$153	+$48	09-10 18:14
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	+238	$87	63¢	$151	+$64	10-01 18:36
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+154	$118	96¢	$148	+$30	09-04 15:00
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	+178	$88	81¢	$144	+$56	09-29 11:09
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	+250	$159	57¢	$144	-$15	09-21 15:39
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	+149	$111	96¢	$143	+$32	09-30 17:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	48	$537	1,057	+1,057	No	+$5	09-25 20:22
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	34	$472	952	+952	No	+$17	09-04 18:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	38	$447	923	+923	No	+$14	09-22 22:09
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	54	$439	964	+964	No	+$31	08-06 05:44
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	36	$386	792	+792	Yes	+$6	08-29 22:08
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	31	$370	718	+718	open	—	10-06 17:56
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	39	$366	728	+728	No	-$1	08-29 21:45
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	28	$347	670	+670	Yes	-$1	10-01 22:27
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	39	$331	664	+664	No	+$15	08-29 19:02
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	39	$320	712	+712	No	+$22	08-14 20:28
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	26	$319	656	+656	open	—	10-02 07:54
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	22	$317	692	+692	open	—	10-08 09:36
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?	25	$309	613	+613	open	—	09-04 18:39
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	26	$308	628	+628	open	—	10-02 08:32
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	25	$294	598	+598	No	+$5	09-22 01:53
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	43	$293	594	+594	No	+$2	08-28 12:37
will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	21	$289	615	+615	Yes	+$5	07-19 14:31
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	25	$285	558	+558	No	-$6	10-01 18:48
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	21	$281	597	+597	No	+$6	08-06 21:43
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	24	$280	570	+570	No	+$5	09-10 18:03
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	20	$276	553	+553	open	—	09-24 03:19
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	14	$274	500	+500	open	—	09-21 22:15
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	27	$273	545	+545	Yes	-$1	09-30 20:39
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	23	$271	523	+523	open	—	09-13 15:14
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	24	$265	539	+539	No	+$5	09-22 17:34
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?	24	$265	534	+534	open	—	10-05 18:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	26	$262	556	+556	Yes	+$7	09-22 18:30
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	19	$262	544	+544	open	—	10-04 17:07
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	24	$262	554	+554	No	+$30	09-27 12:00
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?	27	$259	529	+529	open	—	10-05 00:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 10:35:11	Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x04a690…
10-27 10:27:08	Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x035a3b…
10-27 09:36:06	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	No	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0x38785c…
10-27 09:15:18	Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x48ffcc…
10-27 02:25:08	Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x956a06…
10-26 23:27:41	Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xacc4c7…
10-26 22:48:21	Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xaf5cfb…
10-26 20:12:32	Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xcbc0f6…
10-26 17:25:32	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xdbaa95…
10-26 15:27:15	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x07bf3e…
10-26 15:17:57	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x9cd9ab…
10-26 12:53:45	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x40abb6…
10-26 11:49:36	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0x45c16e…
10-26 10:20:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x6b8ee2…
10-26 09:53:30	Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10?	No	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xe02f7e…
10-26 09:53:29	Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0xebd074…
10-26 04:26:51	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0xc7f5ff…
10-26 04:09:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x0779e9…
10-26 00:40:06	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x9336fe…
10-26 00:17:45	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0xf4f1b8…
10-26 00:02:57	Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0x3b3dcb…
10-25 23:44:36	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x282906…
10-25 20:43:30	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x96300c…
10-25 20:41:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x6fb4f2…
10-25 20:35:45	Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xa9e6e1…
10-25 17:03:39	Will Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus win the 2027 Campeche Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x09155a…
10-25 16:48:36	Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x820953…
10-25 16:17:56	Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0xbe1b1b…
10-25 16:04:54	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xd16d32…
10-25 11:41:48	Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?	Yes	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xfe41a4…
10-25 07:02:15	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x1d004d…
10-25 04:52:21	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x04c7f8…
10-25 02:03:24	Will Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x4e6e55…
10-24 21:21:39	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x8fa1b4…
10-24 20:21:53	Will the Democratic Party win the NE-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x81bb3b…
10-24 19:34:15	Will Leanne Raw win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$1	0xedd751…
10-24 19:13:30	Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x1e8453…
10-24 19:10:35	Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8c2b05…
10-24 18:45:53	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x373ceb…
10-24 16:05:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0xe63653…
10-24 14:40:29	Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x2aa39a…
10-24 11:16:09	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x6a3c05…
10-24 10:01:30	Base FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xfb83d4…
10-24 08:28:14	Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x92e969…
10-24 08:11:08	Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x24ebe1…
10-24 05:07:09	Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xd0f94e…
10-24 05:07:03	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x30a40e…
10-24 04:55:30	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xb79939…
10-24 03:46:39	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x09752f…
10-24 03:46:29	Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x54e06f…
10-23 21:55:09	Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xd3b371…
10-23 21:41:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xb72d37…
10-23 20:11:00	Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xd0f62d…
10-23 20:11:00	Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0xceb31a…
10-23 19:27:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xc11fcd…
10-23 19:26:32	Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool?	Yes	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xfd7920…
10-23 18:46:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0xca5ebb…
10-23 17:01:32	Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x2b73a4…
10-23 16:24:14	Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x6c9663…
10-23 13:55:29	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x9e7887…
10-23 11:55:08	Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xec0d85…
10-23 01:57:45	Will Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0x0eb051…
10-23 01:16:53	Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xdc2caa…
10-22 23:44:21	Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Yes	BUY	19	60¢	$11	0x138358…
10-22 23:35:18	Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xf5095f…
10-22 22:09:56	Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x992930…
10-22 22:02:14	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x40e013…
10-22 20:05:26	Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x8c9d39…
10-22 19:16:57	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x4d947d…
10-22 17:39:47	UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x072b57…
10-22 15:37:20	Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x1d00a4…
10-22 14:52:33	Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	13	66¢	$8	0xfe0e79…
10-22 14:51:47	Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x0db14d…
10-22 13:32:29	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x9d034d…
10-22 13:18:32	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x9f5968…
10-22 12:07:30	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x28d6b1…
10-22 11:16:09	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	42¢	$5	0x029cfb…
10-22 10:46:57	Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xf7cbbd…
10-22 10:46:54	Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x4693cb…
10-22 07:00:29	Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xfc92e3…
10-22 06:47:30	Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x4328c5…
10-22 06:07:26	Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x286001…
10-22 06:07:25	Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0x77411b…
10-22 05:40:25	Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0x3079f3…
10-22 05:40:23	Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x6cbb8f…
10-22 04:58:12	MagicBlock FDV above $60M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc6f2e6…
10-22 03:26:17	Will Marguerite Humeau win the Turner Prize 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xf1e42d…
10-22 02:17:50	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x1aa8de…
10-22 01:36:29	Will Monterrey win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x57945b…
10-22 00:38:29	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x10d8a9…
10-21 22:47:00	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x26af2c…
10-21 22:41:03	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x238333…
10-21 21:50:56	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0xeac72b…
10-21 21:50:56	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcc1443…
10-21 21:21:03	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x949a92…
10-21 21:09:51	Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	50¢	$13	0xe8f6f7…
10-21 19:28:53	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	No	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x2ac347…
10-21 19:06:06	Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x109cd5…
10-21 18:05:14	Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x186eab…
10-21 17:06:26	Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x6781f9…