Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,000
$7 in 24h
Trades
200
Unique wallets
67
Liquidity
$3,369
Latest YES mid
16¢
Latest NO mid
84¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-23 20:37
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $18 | $111 | $93 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 15 | $28 | $595 | $567 |
| 🐟 Fish | 14 | $50 | $204 | $154 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 35 | $266 | $356 | $90 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $25 | $50 | $25 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $19 | $13 | +$6 |
| Median | 7 | $3 | $19 | $17 |
| Below median | 6 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $43 | $127 | $84 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $9 | $146 | $137 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $409 | $409 |
| unranked | 30 | $263 | $502 | $239 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x2474…57c7 | Yes | +758 | $117 | $117 | 11 | 07-04 11:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x5d4d…baba | Yes | +510 | $79 | $79 | 6 | 07-18 05:58 |
| Low-Jug 0x4ac9…cf1a | No | +376 | $313 | $313 | 3 | 07-23 20:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xec67…c2e8 | No | +350 | $297 | $297 | 4 | 06-25 15:09 |
| Polite-Wingtip 0x7dce…4682 | Yes | +296 | $38 | $38 | 14 | 07-23 20:37 |
| Euphoric-Flan 0x529d…6381 | No | +155 | $127 | $127 | 3 | 06-13 10:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x9879…bc99 | No | +142 | $123 | $123 | 8 | 07-13 14:32 |
| Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | +113 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 07-12 15:18 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-26 08:47 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-26 08:47 |
| Great-Barbeque 0x07e0…1db9 | Yes | +100 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-26 08:47 |
| Slippery-Doll 0x1d7c…51b6 | No | +100 | $83 | $83 | 2 | 06-18 15:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x9e3b…416a | Yes | +84 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-26 08:47 |
| Dizzy-Strand 0x4934…6d71 | No | +77 | $63 | $63 | 6 | 07-22 09:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xcd38…46e0 | Yes | +73 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-04 18:28 |
| Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | +53 | $40 | $40 | 9 | 07-23 02:15 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +41 | $9 | $9 | 8 | 07-23 02:09 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $4 | $14 | 4 | 07-23 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xe196…5d47 | Yes | +28 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-19 09:11 |
| United-Exhaustion 0xd7ae…5aec | No | +23 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-31 20:01 |
| Grimy-Turnstile 0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | +19 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-08 08:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x1efa…988f | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-22 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x483a…8e08 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-04 07:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xc465…185c | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 07-20 04:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x2fb9…0b37 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-13 10:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-30 18:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-23 13:20 |
| Orderly-Dentist 0xe4ca…1383 | Yes | +7 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-26 11:47 |
| Easy-Going-Reef 0xbfe6…16f6 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-18 06:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x67df…7e00 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-05 12:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb8c…3363 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $10 | 3 | 07-17 06:09 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-23 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | +5 | $4 | $13 | 4 | 07-16 09:06 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-23 17:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | +5 | $4 | $22 | 5 | 07-16 09:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xd38f…bf78 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-19 01:50 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +5 | $4 | $6 | 2 | 07-17 06:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | +4 | $4 | $13 | 2 | 07-23 17:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | +2 | $2 | $14 | 2 | 07-22 22:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb8c…3363 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-17 06:09 |
| Unsteady-Agency 0xb4ee…cc59 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-09 12:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-07 19:35 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 20:37:49 | Polite-Wingtip 0x7dce…4682 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 19¢ | $5 | 0xc963e0… |
| 07-23 20:37:49 | Low-Jug 0x4ac9…cf1a | No | BUY | 27 | 81¢ | $22 | 0xc963e0… |
| 07-23 17:53:01 | (anonymous) 0x6a00…5906 | Yes | SELL | 49 | 17¢ | $8 | 0xb212d1… |
| 07-23 17:53:01 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 6 | 87¢ | $5 | 0xb212d1… |
| 07-23 17:53:01 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xb212d1… |
| 07-23 17:53:01 | 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda 0x29ef…ddda | No | SELL | 39 | 82¢ | $32 | 0xb212d1… |
| 07-23 13:22:18 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 11 | 18¢ | $2 | 0xe83e5e… |
| 07-23 13:22:18 | 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda 0x29ef…ddda | No | SELL | 11 | 82¢ | $9 | 0xe83e5e… |
| 07-23 13:20:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0x0225ab… |
| 07-23 13:20:36 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 8 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x0225ab… |
| 07-23 13:20:36 | Low-Jug 0x4ac9…cf1a | No | BUY | 43 | 81¢ | $35 | 0x0225ab… |
| 07-23 13:20:36 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x0225ab… |
| 07-23 02:15:39 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x08aadd… |
| 07-23 02:15:39 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x08aadd… |
| 07-23 02:09:12 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x80e863… |
| 07-23 02:09:12 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x80e863… |
| 07-23 02:07:36 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x76b6da… |
| 07-23 02:07:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x76b6da… |
| 07-23 02:05:52 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x79fa57… |
| 07-23 02:05:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x79fa57… |
| 07-23 02:04:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xc69353… |
| 07-23 02:04:21 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0xc69353… |
| 07-23 02:02:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x8854f9… |
| 07-23 02:02:49 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x8854f9… |
| 07-23 02:01:18 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0xd2280b… |
| 07-23 02:01:18 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xd2280b… |
| 07-23 01:59:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x2e1ff0… |
| 07-23 01:59:37 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x2e1ff0… |
| 07-22 23:29:55 | Regal-Softening 0xfc50…877e | Yes | SELL | 2 | 22¢ | $0 | 0x7317f4… |
| 07-22 23:29:55 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 22¢ | $0 | 0x7317f4… |
| 07-22 22:48:37 | Regal-Softening 0xfc50…877e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 44¢ | $1 | 0xa3d8e4… |
| 07-22 22:48:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 2 | 56¢ | $1 | 0xa3d8e4… |
| 07-22 22:39:40 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 8 | 73¢ | $6 | 0xba551f… |
| 07-22 22:39:40 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | No | BUY | 8 | 73¢ | $6 | 0xba551f… |
| 07-22 20:26:37 | Polite-Wingtip 0x7dce…4682 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 25¢ | $4 | 0x90835f… |
| 07-22 20:26:37 | (anonymous) 0x2ef3…b420 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 25¢ | $4 | 0x90835f… |
| 07-22 09:34:01 | Dizzy-Strand 0x4934…6d71 | No | BUY | 10 | 80¢ | $8 | 0xeb594a… |
| 07-22 09:34:01 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0xeb594a… |
| 07-22 09:34:01 | 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda 0x29ef…ddda | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xeb594a… |
| 07-22 08:47:33 | Dizzy-Strand 0x4934…6d71 | No | BUY | 19 | 80¢ | $15 | 0x69b318… |
| 07-22 08:47:33 | Gummy-Sack 0xff47…d81f | No | SELL | 19 | 80¢ | $15 | 0x69b318… |
| 07-20 04:05:39 | Dizzy-Strand 0x4934…6d71 | No | BUY | 4 | 81¢ | $4 | 0xddaf30… |
| 07-20 04:05:39 | (anonymous) 0xc465…185c | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xddaf30… |
| 07-20 04:05:39 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 35 | 16¢ | $6 | 0xddaf30… |
| 07-20 04:05:39 | (anonymous) 0x6a00…5906 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 16¢ | $8 | 0xddaf30… |
| 07-19 09:11:48 | (anonymous) 0xe196…5d47 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 18¢ | $5 | 0xdb45de… |
| 07-19 09:11:48 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 28 | 18¢ | $5 | 0xdb45de… |
| 07-19 01:50:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x117413… |
| 07-19 01:50:49 | (anonymous) 0xd38f…bf78 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x117413… |
| 07-18 05:58:18 | (anonymous) 0x5d4d…baba | Yes | BUY | 306 | 16¢ | $49 | 0xbf04c6… |
| 07-18 05:58:18 | Low-Jug 0x4ac9…cf1a | No | BUY | 306 | 84¢ | $257 | 0xbf04c6… |
| 07-17 06:09:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0x122472… |
| 07-17 06:09:39 | (anonymous) 0xbb8c…3363 | No | BUY | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0x122472… |
| 07-17 06:09:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 6 | 83¢ | $5 | 0x9f1c87… |
| 07-17 06:09:27 | (anonymous) 0xbb8c…3363 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x9f1c87… |
| 07-16 09:06:59 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xf81443… |
| 07-16 09:06:59 | (anonymous) 0x5d4d…baba | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xf81443… |
| 07-16 09:06:59 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xf81443… |
| 07-14 12:14:41 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0xe24545… |
| 07-14 12:14:41 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 3 | 90¢ | $3 | 0xe24545… |
| 07-14 12:14:41 | (anonymous) 0x63d0…326e | Yes | SELL | 12 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xe24545… |
| 07-14 12:14:41 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xe24545… |
| 07-13 23:50:08 | (anonymous) 0x5d4d…baba | Yes | BUY | 26 | 15¢ | $4 | 0xc95c48… |
| 07-13 23:50:08 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 15¢ | $4 | 0xc95c48… |
| 07-13 14:57:20 | (anonymous) 0x5d4d…baba | Yes | BUY | 35 | 15¢ | $5 | 0x2b9d99… |
| 07-13 14:57:20 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x2b9d99… |
| 07-13 14:57:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 15¢ | $5 | 0x2b9d99… |
| 07-13 14:32:35 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 2 | 90¢ | $2 | 0x8558ce… |
| 07-13 14:32:35 | (anonymous) 0x9879…bc99 | No | BUY | 62 | 89¢ | $55 | 0x8558ce… |
| 07-13 14:32:35 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 11¢ | $3 | 0x8558ce… |
| 07-13 14:32:35 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 11¢ | $3 | 0x8558ce… |
| 07-13 14:32:35 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x8558ce… |
| 07-12 15:18:47 | Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | BUY | 113 | 85¢ | $96 | 0xc8e02e… |
| 07-12 15:18:47 | (anonymous) 0x5d4d…baba | Yes | BUY | 123 | 15¢ | $18 | 0xc8e02e… |
| 07-12 15:18:47 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xc8e02e… |
| 07-12 15:18:47 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xc8e02e… |
| 07-12 15:18:34 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 10 | 86¢ | $9 | 0x9cd3a8… |
| 07-12 15:18:34 | (anonymous) 0x5d4d…baba | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x9cd3a8… |
| 07-12 12:05:35 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x3ad618… |
| 07-12 12:05:35 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x3ad618… |
| 07-09 12:00:19 | Unsteady-Agency 0xb4ee…cc59 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xa58546… |
| 07-09 12:00:19 | Spicy-Ecliptic 0x549c…08b7 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xa58546… |
| 07-08 08:02:56 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x8c94f1… |
| 07-08 08:02:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0x8c94f1… |
| 07-08 08:02:56 | Grimy-Turnstile 0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x8c94f1… |
| 07-07 19:35:56 | (anonymous) 0x8b89…eaae | No | SELL | 1 | 85¢ | $1 | 0x510b00… |
| 07-07 19:35:56 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 1 | 85¢ | $1 | 0x510b00… |
| 07-07 19:35:55 | (anonymous) 0x8b89…eaae | Yes | SELL | 0 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x7a13e8… |
| 07-07 19:35:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 0 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x7a13e8… |
| 07-05 12:12:17 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x57a01b… |
| 07-05 12:12:17 | (anonymous) 0x67df…7e00 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x57a01b… |
| 07-04 18:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x45c3d6… |
| 07-04 18:28:56 | (anonymous) 0xcd38…46e0 | Yes | BUY | 73 | 14¢ | $10 | 0x45c3d6… |
| 07-04 18:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 32 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x45c3d6… |
| 07-04 11:19:26 | (anonymous) 0x8b89…eaae | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x2ec3ff… |
| 07-04 11:19:26 | (anonymous) 0x2474…57c7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x2ec3ff… |
| 07-04 07:45:14 | (anonymous) 0x8b89…eaae | Yes | SELL | 12 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x1b71ad… |
| 07-04 07:45:14 | (anonymous) 0x483a…8e08 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x1b71ad… |
| 07-04 07:45:14 | (anonymous) 0x2474…57c7 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x1b71ad… |
| 07-04 00:11:23 | (anonymous) 0x8b89…eaae | Yes | BUY | 12 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xe69ac5… |