Realized P&L
+$351
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
72.7%
Resolved
932
Trades
2,805
lifetime
Volume
$171.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$61
Open exposure
$2.92K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 06:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 225 days
Categories
Politics
62% 76% +$401
Other
36% 72% -$200
Sports
1% 62% +$96
Tech
1% 83% +$76
Crypto
1% 69% -$22
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
50 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No -280 -$205 94¢ $-265 -$60 07-01 12:21
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +251 $201 92¢ $231 +$30 10-13 08:45
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +282 $232 72¢ $203 -$29 09-06 17:27
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -214 -$203 86¢ $-183 +$20 09-25 15:12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +166 $144 96¢ $158 +$14 10-21 07:26
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +145 $121 86¢ $124 +$3 10-17 08:03
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +124 $114 99¢ $123 +$9 10-18 15:34
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +120 $101 100¢ $120 +$19 10-27 21:26
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +129 $106 92¢ $119 +$13 09-22 09:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +116 $77 94¢ $110 +$33 06-27 05:44
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +126 $92 86¢ $108 +$16 08-07 10:58
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +147 $100 72¢ $105 +$5 10-27 20:32
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +114 $100 91¢ $103 +$3 10-21 07:25
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +100 $90 97¢ $97 +$7 05-17 11:00
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +140 $101 59¢ $83 -$18 07-12 17:57
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No +100 $75 80¢ $80 +$4 07-14 09:18
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +86 $64 91¢ $78 +$14 07-08 20:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -72 $8 82¢ $-59 -$67 10-27 20:03
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +67 $51 88¢ $59 +$8 08-10 06:45
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No +62 $49 88¢ $55 +$6 09-04 14:26
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +105 $84 50¢ $53 -$31 07-08 15:04
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +61 $42 83¢ $51 +$9 09-02 14:13
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +76 $48 66¢ $50 +$3 10-21 07:25
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +59 $45 85¢ $50 +$5 07-10 20:20
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +62 $45 77¢ $47 +$2 07-16 19:21
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +49 $39 96¢ $47 +$8 07-10 20:21
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +81 $50 50¢ $41 -$9 10-21 19:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +41 $31 98¢ $40 +$9 10-20 15:38
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +63 $44 61¢ $38 -$6 07-07 11:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +100 $63 37¢ $37 -$26 10-11 14:20