Realized P&L
-$294
Unrealized P&L
+$83
Hit rate
63.5%
Resolved
11
Trades
1,312
lifetime
Volume
$119.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$91
Open exposure
$813
29 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-19 20:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
76% 75% $-284
Other
22% 0% $-10
Crypto
1%
Tech
1%
Sports
0% 0% $-0
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +164 $149 98¢ $161 +$12 06-12 20:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +134 $109 86¢ $116 +$7 06-12 20:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +96 $61 80¢ $77 +$16 06-15 17:47
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +68 $60 95¢ $65 +$5 06-17 12:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +46 $41 92¢ $42 +$1 06-09 20:06
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No +46 $40 88¢ $41 +$1 06-09 18:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +31 $27 86¢ $27 $-0 06-19 20:30
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No +26 $23 99¢ $26 +$3 06-09 20:11
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +34 $26 75¢ $26 $-0 06-18 11:03
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +25 $20 80¢ $20 +$0 06-08 19:44
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No +20 $19 99¢ $20 +$1 05-30 20:39
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No -56 $-45 34¢ $-19 +$26 06-14 09:42
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? No +24 $20 76¢ $18 $-2 06-08 12:44
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +14 $12 88¢ $12 +$0 06-06 12:24
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +16 $10 76¢ $12 +$2 06-06 12:24
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +17 $12 68¢ $12 $-0 06-17 10:14
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +14 $10 84¢ $11 +$1 06-11 17:52
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +21 $11 53¢ $11 +$0 06-17 10:13
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +14 $11 78¢ $11 +$0 05-30 20:19
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +14 $11 78¢ $11 +$0 06-19 19:14
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No +13 $11 82¢ $11 $-0 06-19 19:53
Another Elon baby by June 30? No +11 $10 95¢ $11 +$1 05-28 19:23
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? No +12 $10 79¢ $10 $-0 06-06 18:22
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +14 $10 68¢ $10 $-0 06-13 08:16
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? No +11 $10 86¢ $10 $-0 06-19 19:56
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes +11 $10 84¢ $9 $-1 05-30 20:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +16 $10 46¢ $7 $-3 06-15 20:58
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +10 $5 48¢ $5 +$0 06-18 11:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -26 $-14 $-2 +$12 05-29 15:03