Leading-Tenor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.0%

Resolved

Trades

524

lifetime

Volume

$948

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 08-09 17:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$1

Politics

27% 0% $-2

Sports

10% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate hike in 2026?	7	$26	23	17	+6	open	—	08-09 08:34
will india win the 2026 icc mens t20 world cup	4	$22	26	22	+4	open	—	03-05 01:37
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	4	$20	14	14	+0	open	—	07-22 08:14
iran full airspace closure by july 24	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	07-22 15:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	8	$16	563	726	-163	open	—	07-22 14:52
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	07-27 20:28
btc updown 5m 1772556000	3	$13	13	2	+11	open	—	03-03 16:43
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	4	$10	12	2	+10	open	—	03-08 09:36
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	4	$9	14	14	+0	open	—	03-20 02:47
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	03-04 02:39
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	4	$9	7	6	+1	open	—	04-13 14:26
will csar dockweiler win the 2026 la paz mayoral election	2	$9	12	0	+12	open	—	03-20 05:36
dems or gop larger turnout in texas senate primary	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	03-04 02:39
will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	3	$9	11	10	+1	open	—	03-29 14:58
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	07-27 10:57
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	4	$8	34	34	+0	open	—	07-21 19:12
us strike on somalia by march 7 324	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	03-11 03:18
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	6	$8	31	47	-16	open	—	07-25 13:48
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	07-30 16:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	07-27 16:26
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	4	$7	53	105	-52	open	—	07-21 08:36
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	07-22 04:04
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	07-25 12:03
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	4	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	08-08 15:31
will peaky blinders the immortal man be the top us netflix movie this week	3	$6	16	0	+16	open	—	03-23 16:25
will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	2	$6	9	9	+0	open	—	07-22 01:48
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-08 09:33
us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	08-09 06:22
will raja krishnamoorthi be the democratic nominee for senate in illinois	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-15 17:42
will cristian sanabria win the 2026 sucre mayoral election	2	$5	7	7	+0	open	—	03-21 02:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 17:41:21	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x8bd91f…
08-09 15:31:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x41e229…
08-09 13:34:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xaa87b4…
08-09 13:33:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x3b13d3…
08-09 08:34:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xd720eb…
08-09 06:22:46	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x7085d0…
08-09 05:48:37	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xccbbbb…
08-08 15:31:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x5513e7…
08-08 15:31:16	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x5babd3…
08-08 14:25:52	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x105100…
08-02 06:35:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0x150745…
08-01 21:02:09	will bitcoin dip to 62k july 27 august 2 2026	Yes	SELL	1	44¢	$1	0x6b33d6…
08-01 21:01:57	will bitcoin dip to 62k july 27 august 2 2026	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x53b4bb…
08-01 13:00:27	will bitcoin dip to 62k july 27 august 2 2026	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8c1a02…
08-01 07:04:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x8bbd6b…
07-30 16:36:56	amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt82	No	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0xf52e6c…
07-30 16:17:08	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x99631f…
07-30 15:44:50	aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt89	No	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x0bc52f…
07-30 15:08:54	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 366 424	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xa2371a…
07-30 14:10:20	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xd5ed68…
07-30 14:07:57	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x20a53f…
07-30 13:42:36	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x2d7587…
07-30 13:34:57	aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt89	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x4e9894…
07-30 13:31:18	amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt82	No	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x33e552…
07-28 20:36:58	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xe3abd1…
07-27 20:28:00	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x2d6a55…
07-27 17:42:57	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x9cf7d1…
07-27 16:26:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x42d24f…
07-27 14:15:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x89d442…
07-27 10:57:07	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xf05f0d…
07-27 09:05:31	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xdb1618…
07-27 00:54:28	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0xfd2f21…
07-26 22:02:58	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x7cb8eb…
07-26 21:04:12	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 366 424	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x19c76e…
07-26 20:02:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xdec557…
07-26 19:58:31	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x938824…
07-26 17:33:57	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x59e8e5…
07-26 15:52:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x359953…
07-26 05:10:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xb88663…
07-25 13:48:10	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x61ac7b…
07-25 12:03:28	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x876c44…
07-24 07:37:24	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0x88e54c…
07-23 07:11:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xe152b9…
07-23 01:48:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xff67a0…
07-22 15:11:27	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xe1ab9f…
07-22 15:05:30	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x0d7fbc…
07-22 14:52:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	106	1¢	$1	0x6af515…
07-22 08:14:31	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	7	67¢	$5	0x1e9088…
07-22 08:13:57	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	7	67¢	$5	0x98eb55…
07-22 07:13:46	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xc24e84…
07-22 07:07:36	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x1564b0…
07-22 05:21:57	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x26f0f9…
07-22 05:09:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x71bc47…
07-22 05:07:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x199723…
07-22 05:07:04	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x0be82a…
07-22 05:04:19	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x09852f…
07-22 04:04:09	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xad84bd…
07-22 03:06:15	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6e9ea9…
07-22 02:22:37	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x04894d…
07-22 01:49:15	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x204590…
07-22 01:48:43	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	SELL	9	33¢	$3	0x9069ca…
07-22 01:48:03	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x4bffdf…
07-22 01:41:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x4cdbfb…
07-21 22:03:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0xb857c1…
07-21 19:12:04	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x4d661a…
07-21 19:11:33	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x1d5b0e…
07-21 17:49:27	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0xc2e1f2…
07-21 17:46:15	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	SELL	23	10¢	$2	0x5ca8c1…
07-21 17:46:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x3f6506…
07-21 15:06:15	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0xeb9247…
07-21 15:06:13	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x41cae3…
07-21 11:45:39	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x1b85ca…
07-21 11:41:12	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$1	0xfe86fe…
07-21 10:40:06	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	Yes	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0x3ce1ba…
07-21 10:19:01	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xc01e3f…
07-21 09:49:25	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xde8c84…
07-21 09:48:57	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0xd00f87…
07-21 09:48:48	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	84	1¢	$1	0x2c2c4e…
07-21 09:28:00	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x6a45a3…
07-21 08:52:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0xeb184f…
07-21 08:36:52	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	52	5¢	$2	0x6c60c0…
07-21 08:12:33	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0xebbe92…
07-21 08:02:19	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x600cff…
07-21 07:56:03	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x19f494…
07-21 07:47:49	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	32	4¢	$1	0xa7a4a6…
07-21 07:43:04	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	53	4¢	$2	0xef3d93…
07-21 07:16:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	361	1¢	$5	0x618dd2…
07-21 06:41:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	126	1¢	$2	0xb4d585…
07-21 06:35:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	259	1¢	$3	0x42649a…
07-21 06:31:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	130	1¢	$2	0x5764c4…
07-21 06:30:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	129	1¢	$2	0x383144…
07-21 05:13:48	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	5¢	$1	0x0dcc88…
07-06 16:44:58	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x109f7e…
06-09 14:46:51	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x4c2cf3…
05-23 09:56:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa5b82d…
05-12 14:23:58	Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xcf3a08…
05-12 14:23:45	Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x95c2d2…
05-12 14:23:16	Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2f1ace…
05-11 16:41:59	Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc72a63…
05-09 06:12:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7d45b8…