Realized P&L
+$20
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
47.5%
Resolved
18
Trades
121,077
lifetime
Volume
$112.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$166
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 21:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
53% 47% $-35
Politics
25% 100% +$55
Crypto
14%
Sports
5%
Pop-Culture
2%
Tech
2%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Alexander Efimov win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +797 $5 $24 +$19 07-19 12:14
Will Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -43 $-4 26¢ $-11 $-7 07-15 22:44
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -37 $-4 28¢ $-10 $-7 05-27 21:37
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes -9 $-5 98¢ $-9 $-4 07-12 14:41
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +20 $10 40¢ $8 $-1 07-21 03:58
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? No -7 $-6 88¢ $-6 $-1 07-07 01:32
Will Alexandre Pantoja become UFC champion in 2026? No -9 $-7 64¢ $-6 +$1 07-04 21:13
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -12 $-2 50¢ $-6 $-4 07-15 22:36
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? No +9 $2 66¢ $6 +$4 07-20 13:04
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -7 $-5 86¢ $-6 $-0 06-24 13:31
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -12 $-2 45¢ $-5 $-4 07-17 03:19
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Yes +122 $8 $5 $-3 07-20 21:53
Will Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -34 $-4 13¢ $-4 $-1 07-08 22:11
Unit FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes -9 $-3 45¢ $-4 $-1 06-25 09:35
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Yes -88 $-4 $-4 +$0 07-19 18:13
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? No +5 $3 89¢ $4 +$1 06-26 13:44
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027? Yes -32 $-1 12¢ $-4 $-3 07-17 09:25
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? Yes +4 $4 95¢ $4 +$0 07-06 10:11
Unit FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Yes +8 $2 46¢ $4 +$2 07-16 20:08
Will Post Malone have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes +7 $4 54¢ $4 $-0 07-16 21:38
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? No -5 $-4 70¢ $-4 +$0 06-07 23:46
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? Yes -22 $-4 16¢ $-4 +$0 06-06 19:45
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? No +10 $5 34¢ $3 $-1 07-16 00:12
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? Yes +44 $-0 $3 +$4 07-19 16:34
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +4 $2 80¢ $3 +$1 07-01 20:51
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes -4 $-5 71¢ $-3 +$2 07-13 12:17
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes -10 $-4 28¢ $-3 +$2 07-18 18:00
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +11 $1 25¢ $3 +$2 07-20 02:24
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? Yes -55 $-1 $-3 $-1 06-29 12:04
NATO dissolves before 2027? Yes +134 $3 $3 $-0 07-20 17:37