Realized P&L
-$245
Unrealized P&L
+$10
Hit rate
67.8%
Resolved
13
Trades
2,867
lifetime
Volume
$162.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$57
Open exposure
$1.74K
13 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-19 13:19
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Other
72% 57% +$124
Sports
21% 67% $-369
Politics
6%
Crypto
1%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
41 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +455 $382 87¢ $396 +$14 07-07 17:41
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -230 $-207 94¢ $-217 $-10 06-11 02:29
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes -308 $-206 70¢ $-217 $-11 06-19 12:01
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? No +218 $200 94¢ $204 +$4 05-30 00:11
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-182 92¢ $-183 $-1 07-08 17:26
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +109 $100 95¢ $103 +$3 06-02 21:17
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? No +111 $100 92¢ $103 +$3 05-30 00:12
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +100 $95 96¢ $96 +$1 06-04 07:28
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +100 $67 73¢ $73 +$6 06-03 11:17
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +100 $63 69¢ $69 +$6 07-09 14:35
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No +100 $83 68¢ $68 $-15 06-18 15:34
Canada's population Up or Down this year? Up -31 $-17 27¢ $-8 +$8 05-31 02:19
Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027? Yes -38 $-5 $-2 +$3 06-10 02:36