Polite-Wingtip — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$133

Unrealized P&L

+$44

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,458

lifetime

Volume

$27.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$112

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 07-02 13:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

63% 22% $-143

Politics

31% 75% +$10

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	-359	$-80	16¢	$-56	+$25	06-29 10:46
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+254	$29	16¢	$42	+$13	06-26 15:03
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	-46	$-21	30¢	$-14	+$7	06-06 19:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q1 2026	22	$1.6K	1,880	2,005	-125	open	—	04-01 01:54
grok 4pt20 released by march 31 147	13	$1.4K	764	764	+0	open	—	02-17 19:54
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$1.3K	801	801	+0	open	—	02-27 08:47
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	81	$1.2K	1,013	1,015	-3	open	—	05-26 15:42
will donald trumps tie be another color 653	13	$1.1K	721	535	+186	open	—	02-28 00:46
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	25	$791	32,526	619	+31,907	open	—	03-03 21:23
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	26	$728	493	493	+0	open	—	02-19 02:28
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	20	$717	626	626	+0	open	—	04-19 12:16
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	9	$590	372	372	+0	open	—	01-29 05:17
grok 4pt20 released by february 28 844	7	$576	566	566	+0	open	—	02-15 06:14
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	2	$438	300	300	+0	open	—	02-25 19:52
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	2	$382	200	200	+0	open	—	01-31 16:48
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$354	7,327	0	+7,327	open	—	04-29 03:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$348	255	255	+0	open	—	04-07 22:51
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	5	$342	360	360	+0	open	—	02-12 19:57
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April?	28	$337	228	228	+0	open	—	04-12 10:51
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	6	$333	345	345	+0	open	—	02-14 10:00
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	7	$322	288	288	+0	open	—	02-11 04:26
grok 4pt20 released by april 20 988 375 998 452	2	$299	154	154	+0	open	—	02-15 17:24
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 24?	17	$290	356	241	+115	open	—	04-24 19:26
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 786	12	$289	1,125	0	+1,125	open	—	03-01 09:21
will amzn dip to 192 in february	5	$275	197	197	+0	open	—	02-19 04:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	8	$269	411	411	+0	Yes	+$27	05-08 18:35
will meta dip to 640 in february	6	$266	197	197	+0	open	—	02-12 16:02
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	13	$260	373	373	+0	open	—	03-15 22:12
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	5	$257	250	250	+0	open	—	04-23 22:20
will donald trumps tie be red 438	6	$257	331	0	+331	open	—	02-27 14:09
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$256	449	449	+0	open	—	02-17 22:57
will tsla dip to 383 in february	4	$253	185	185	+0	open	—	02-19 04:35
will pltr dip to 126 in february	6	$249	224	224	+0	open	—	02-15 11:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 13:33:55	will tesla launch robotaxis in california by december 31 20260630142749586	Yes	SELL	26	23¢	$6	0x5da834…
06-30 18:40:40	will tesla launch robotaxis in california by december 31 20260630142749586	Yes	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0xf7c8f2…
06-29 10:46:25	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x4b24dd…
06-28 23:51:44	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	23¢	$7	0x4d87e2…
06-28 12:49:23	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	23¢	$27	0x028450…
06-27 19:03:14	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	102	6¢	$6	0x35f1ce…
06-27 19:02:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	142	5¢	$7	0x2e7f1c…
06-27 00:36:11	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	52	88¢	$46	0x99626f…
06-26 20:34:56	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	52	84¢	$44	0x7e05d3…
06-26 15:03:35	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x62a7f9…
06-26 14:59:23	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x41c803…
06-26 14:59:11	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	9¢	$4	0x2a9d5e…
06-26 08:47:13	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0xc069c5…
06-26 00:09:52	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	22¢	$7	0xf1340e…
06-25 15:01:52	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0xc2d1fb…
06-22 20:33:05	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	16	24¢	$4	0x261b4c…
06-22 20:32:49	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0xf4790c…
06-22 11:54:38	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0x843e4a…
06-22 09:52:37	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x78702c…
06-19 19:11:35	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0x86ec48…
06-19 19:05:58	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0xffa915…
06-19 18:58:04	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xee39b4…
06-18 22:33:50	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	46	21¢	$10	0x3eb99d…
06-18 22:16:08	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0x0dd85e…
06-18 15:34:28	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x1c7cf0…
06-15 00:02:36	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	23¢	$6	0x242233…
06-13 18:26:22	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	16	68¢	$11	0x14fe91…
06-13 15:01:30	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	21	59¢	$13	0xa91830…
06-12 15:55:22	spacex ipo closing share price updown on first day 20260607181533420	Up	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x79fd92…
06-12 13:54:00	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x32944b…
06-11 14:55:25	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x7de625…
06-10 21:30:33	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	26	54¢	$14	0x1df9f5…
06-10 20:41:21	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	SELL	263	22¢	$58	0xb46e51…
06-09 15:08:30	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x566c34…
06-08 19:32:48	will meta dip to 560 in june 2026	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x517fa4…
06-08 16:22:24	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	Yes	SELL	81	15¢	$12	0x1df915…
06-08 16:20:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	23	55¢	$13	0x096733…
06-08 16:17:40	Kurds declare independence from Iran?	Yes	SELL	162	2¢	$3	0x468593…
06-06 19:52:43	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	45¢	$21	0x641100…
06-06 02:16:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	34	58¢	$20	0x93f9ae…
06-05 20:51:42	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xeaf4a1…
06-05 20:51:34	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0x5cbb9f…
06-05 18:08:33	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xa3589b…
06-04 02:02:43	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x9d69bb…
06-04 02:02:10	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	52	12¢	$6	0x292ec6…
06-02 20:53:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	57	42¢	$24	0xdbd8a9…
06-02 20:47:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	9¢	$8	0x3874c6…
06-01 16:08:05	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $420 in June?	Yes	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x8ad759…
06-01 00:39:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	16¢	$14	0xe6c197…
05-31 20:01:27	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x55212c…
05-30 14:31:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	39	70¢	$27	0x8a2f2a…
05-29 19:43:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0xf6bd0c…
05-29 19:43:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x46c8b5…
05-29 13:40:48	Micron (MU) Up or Down on May 29?	Down	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0xde733a…
05-29 02:27:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	271	2¢	$5	0x0e2639…
05-29 02:25:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	142	10¢	$14	0x389af7…
05-29 02:05:56	Micron (MU) Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x1b3fbb…
05-28 22:38:21	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	SELL	52	79¢	$41	0xc0b5bc…
05-28 15:12:57	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x848042…
05-28 06:54:59	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $420 in June?	Yes	SELL	12	87¢	$11	0xb852a5…
05-27 20:22:58	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x47c6d3…
05-27 14:52:26	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $420 in June?	Yes	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0xf83c82…
05-27 14:41:01	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $420 in June?	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x50fbb8…
05-27 14:16:42	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xdeab10…
05-27 14:16:42	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xd82df3…
05-27 14:16:31	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x46ef7c…
05-27 14:16:31	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3ac533…
05-27 14:16:31	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0961f8…
05-27 14:13:12	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0x6b1528…
05-26 15:42:41	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	53	92¢	$49	0x1d4f51…
05-26 00:16:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	SELL	119	99¢	$117	0x4584bb…
05-26 00:16:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x6cf2db…
05-26 00:08:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xbdd1a3…
05-25 19:38:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	24	34¢	$8	0xcea735…
05-24 20:28:38	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xff1944…
05-24 20:19:21	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	19	82¢	$16	0x2cd5ae…
05-24 20:17:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	SELL	42	41¢	$17	0x14e4bb…
05-24 11:10:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	51	9¢	$4	0xd27375…
05-24 11:09:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x8cd9b6…
05-24 11:09:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x4592ad…
05-24 02:09:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	92	19¢	$17	0x535dca…
05-24 02:09:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0xaa4968…
05-24 02:05:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	18	30¢	$5	0xdfac8d…
05-24 02:04:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x19099c…
05-23 19:18:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	125	16¢	$19	0xb822ba…
05-23 16:50:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0xe0a792…
05-23 15:28:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	32	39¢	$12	0xf317a7…
05-23 12:45:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	110	31¢	$34	0x1d677c…
05-23 01:48:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$2	0xa4c688…
05-23 01:48:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	19	68¢	$13	0xa9b558…
05-23 01:38:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x1ab3ac…
05-23 01:38:15	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0x0325a7…
05-23 01:31:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	42	68¢	$28	0x710cab…
05-23 01:24:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xc63261…
05-23 00:11:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0x24ba68…
05-22 23:26:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	32	45¢	$14	0xe2948c…
05-22 23:25:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	24	64¢	$15	0x4d1f98…
05-22 23:24:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0xe97bfd…
05-21 23:54:45	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xd312eb…
05-21 23:47:28	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	21	67¢	$14	0x4e5f87…