Realized P&L
-$2.97K
Unrealized P&L
-$38
Hit rate
60.1%
Resolved
399
Trades
7,538
lifetime
Volume
$834.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$111
Open exposure
$10.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-26 18:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 151 days
Categories
Other
50% 45% -$21,240
Politics
40% 43% +$9,250
Sports
9% 32% +$10,729
Crypto
1% 33% -$1,476
Tech
0% 0% -$234
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 156 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -4,162 -$3,550 96¢ $-3993 -$443 08-16 12:42
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +7,177 $1,594 20¢ $1.5K -$123 10-24 03:15
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +671 $435 70¢ $473 +$38 10-22 23:55
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,500 $621 30¢ $458 -$163 10-21 14:13
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +800 $368 43¢ $344 -$24 10-26 13:35
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? No +848 $303 40¢ $337 +$33 08-19 04:38
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +350 $308 88¢ $307 -$1 10-24 15:18
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +675 $122 44¢ $297 +$176 10-25 18:31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +476 $149 60¢ $288 +$139 10-26 14:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +300 $234 84¢ $253 +$19 10-21 18:41
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes +980 $131 24¢ $235 +$104 10-20 10:21
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes +1,500 $165 16¢ $233 +$68 08-01 22:54
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +300 $193 77¢ $231 +$38 10-24 23:34
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No -201 -$191 100¢ $-200 -$10 08-14 17:50
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? No +250 $189 72¢ $181 -$8 10-22 19:07
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? Yes +2,513 $201 6¢ $163 -$38 10-01 18:36
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +200 $144 70¢ $141 -$3 10-24 12:25
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes -2,047 -$246 6¢ $-133 +$113 06-10 00:10
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes +423 $118 30¢ $127 +$9 08-13 23:32
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +130 $95 82¢ $107 +$12 10-26 17:00
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes +500 $85 20¢ $97 +$12 10-02 18:17
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes -2,964 -$385 3¢ $-95 +$290 06-10 00:10
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +100 $60 84¢ $84 +$24 10-23 16:10
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -2,042 -$59 3¢ $-64 -$5 10-16 18:56
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +191 $45 29¢ $54 +$9 09-18 03:28
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes +1,470 $268 3¢ $42 -$226 09-29 17:27
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +50 $41 80¢ $40 -$1 10-26 18:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? Yes +600 $128 6¢ $39 -$89 09-21 09:15
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $33 78¢ $39 +$6 10-23 01:37
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No +50 $32 74¢ $37 +$5 10-24 00:01