Realized P&L
+$260
Unrealized P&L
+$27
Hit rate
73.3%
Resolved
82
Trades
7,278
lifetime
Volume
$73.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.35K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 06-10 00:44
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Politics
47% 75% +$273
Other
42% 43% $-20
Sports
7% 100% +$6
Tech
2%
Crypto
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
48 active days in 12wk • peak 861 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +176 $107 60¢ $106 $-1 05-28 20:04
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T No +106 $97 96¢ $101 +$5 06-09 15:46
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +104 $97 93¢ $97 $-0 06-08 15:07
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No +103 $95 92¢ $94 $-1 06-05 18:29
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +108 $94 86¢ $93 $-2 06-07 18:37
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +59 $56 94¢ $56 +$0 06-10 03:53
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No -57 $-46 84¢ $-48 $-2 05-31 23:01
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +55 $48 87¢ $48 $-0 06-08 02:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -58 $-46 82¢ $-48 $-2 05-28 14:20
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No +49 $43 94¢ $46 +$3 06-09 07:51
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No -67 $-43 60¢ $-40 +$3 06-01 13:42
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No +96 $18 40¢ $38 +$20 06-03 08:48
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No +41 $34 90¢ $37 +$3 06-02 20:24
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -36 $-35 99¢ $-36 $-0 06-08 20:50
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +40 $36 88¢ $35 $-1 06-10 00:00
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +123 $39 29¢ $35 $-4 06-08 01:52
New pandemic in 2026? No +37 $33 88¢ $33 $-0 05-28 03:08
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No +49 $26 66¢ $32 +$6 06-09 09:04
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -40 $-32 79¢ $-32 +$0 06-01 17:03
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? No +33 $28 93¢ $31 +$3 06-10 00:16
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +32 $29 92¢ $29 +$0 06-07 16:22
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No +39 $26 74¢ $29 +$2 06-04 21:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +100 $44 29¢ $29 $-15 06-08 10:17
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +52 $26 54¢ $28 +$2 06-06 05:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -40 $-28 70¢ $-28 +$0 06-09 13:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +149 $27 18¢ $26 $-1 06-09 20:59
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No +122 $17 20¢ $25 +$8 06-04 18:47
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No +24 $23 96¢ $23 +$1 06-04 06:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -31 $-22 72¢ $-22 $-1 06-06 22:48
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +23 $20 90¢ $21 +$0 06-01 05:36