Realized P&L
+$260
Unrealized P&L
-$43
Hit rate
73.3%
Resolved
82
Trades
12,699
lifetime
Volume
$131.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.70K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 07-20 18:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Other
47% 43% $-20
Politics
42% 75% +$273
Sports
7% 100% +$6
Tech
2%
Crypto
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 451 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No +117 $110 95¢ $111 +$1 07-13 19:04
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No +103 $84 94¢ $96 +$13 07-19 22:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -94 $-61 99¢ $-93 $-31 06-29 08:18
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +97 $85 89¢ $86 +$2 06-22 21:19
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +96 $79 86¢ $83 +$4 07-08 15:39
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +76 $71 96¢ $73 +$2 06-17 23:51
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +78 $67 90¢ $71 +$4 07-12 02:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +129 $95 55¢ $70 $-24 07-20 19:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +91 $82 72¢ $66 $-16 06-21 00:12
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +69 $65 95¢ $66 +$0 07-19 21:51
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +62 $55 90¢ $56 +$1 07-06 23:50
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes -56 $-44 100¢ $-56 $-12 06-18 12:50
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -63 $-54 86¢ $-54 +$0 07-19 23:22
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes +58 $53 92¢ $53 +$0 07-18 22:55
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No -57 $-46 91¢ $-52 $-6 05-31 23:01
US recession by end of 2026? No +58 $50 87¢ $50 +$0 06-18 01:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +183 $26 28¢ $50 +$24 07-20 17:49
New pandemic in 2026? No -53 $-48 94¢ $-50 $-2 06-22 12:19
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No +49 $43 96¢ $47 +$4 06-09 07:51
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +68 $37 68¢ $47 +$10 06-14 18:49
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +50 $41 88¢ $44 +$4 07-01 14:14
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes +86 $40 46¢ $40 $-0 07-20 16:16
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No -41 $-39 95¢ $-39 $-0 07-16 07:26
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No -45 $-38 86¢ $-38 $-1 07-18 19:00
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +41 $37 90¢ $37 $-1 07-18 23:11
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026? No +38 $34 95¢ $36 +$2 07-13 06:42
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No -39 $-33 89¢ $-35 $-2 07-17 04:00
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -40 $-32 86¢ $-34 $-3 06-01 17:03
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +148 $52 22¢ $33 $-19 07-16 03:03
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +40 $29 80¢ $32 +$3 07-03 17:08