Realized P&L
+$260
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
73.3%
Resolved
82
Trades
10,076
lifetime
Volume
$102.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.37K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 06-30 12:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Politics
47% 75% +$273
Other
42% 43% $-20
Sports
7% 100% +$6
Tech
3%
Crypto
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 861 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +97 $85 89¢ $87 +$2 06-22 21:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +83 $72 100¢ $82 +$11 06-25 15:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +91 $82 86¢ $78 $-4 06-21 00:12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +76 $71 95¢ $72 +$1 06-17 23:51
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -69 $-68 100¢ $-69 $-1 06-26 01:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -94 $-61 66¢ $-62 $-1 06-29 08:18
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +66 $57 90¢ $59 +$2 06-29 11:52
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes -56 $-44 100¢ $-56 $-12 06-18 12:50
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +63 $55 87¢ $55 $-1 06-26 12:00
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No -57 $-46 90¢ $-52 $-6 05-31 23:01
US recession by end of 2026? No +58 $50 88¢ $51 +$1 06-18 01:03
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +51 $43 100¢ $51 +$8 06-21 05:46
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +55 $48 89¢ $49 +$1 06-08 02:03
New pandemic in 2026? No -53 $-48 90¢ $-48 $-0 06-22 12:19
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No +49 $43 96¢ $47 +$4 06-09 07:51
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +68 $37 66¢ $44 +$7 06-14 18:49
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No +41 $34 96¢ $39 +$5 06-02 20:24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +80 $48 48¢ $38 $-10 06-21 00:25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +254 $42 15¢ $37 $-6 06-21 16:43
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -40 $-32 86¢ $-34 $-3 06-01 17:03
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +33 $31 90¢ $30 $-2 06-19 09:22
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No -30 $-29 96¢ $-29 $-0 06-27 06:53
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +33 $27 86¢ $28 +$2 06-30 11:59
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No +27 $25 100¢ $27 +$2 06-15 16:09
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No -41 $-30 64¢ $-26 +$4 06-15 12:28
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No +39 $26 65¢ $26 $-1 06-04 21:40
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +90 $30 26¢ $24 $-7 06-24 17:53
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No +24 $23 97¢ $24 +$1 06-04 06:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -31 $-22 74¢ $-23 $-2 06-06 22:48
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +23 $20 92¢ $21 +$1 06-01 05:36