Realized P&L
+$129.0K
Unrealized P&L
-$3.39K
Hit rate
68.3%
Resolved
1,418
Trades
28,382
lifetime
Volume
$6.71M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$236
Open exposure
$81.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-27 10:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 239 days
Categories
Politics
68% 70% +$208,414
Other
31% 64% -$83,749
Sports
0% 61% +$3,391
Tech
0% 90% +$476
Crypto
0% 83% +$512
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 716 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932 No +15,263 $10,595 82¢ $12.4K +$1,845 09-30 04:02
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? Yes +10,000 $8,579 90¢ $9.0K +$371 07-30 02:27
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? No +8,255 $7,134 99¢ $8.2K +$1,039 10-02 15:06
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -4,000 -$1,998 90¢ $-3620 -$1,622 07-30 16:00
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +5,000 $3,600 72¢ $3.6K +$0 10-09 14:25
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189 Yes +3,750 $1,612 86¢ $3.2K +$1,595 09-30 11:33
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,000 $2,950 62¢ $3.1K +$175 10-09 14:23
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +4,000 $3,364 72¢ $2.9K -$504 10-01 20:33
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -3,000 -$2,310 94¢ $-2835 -$525 05-27 13:21
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +3,000 $2,730 92¢ $2.7K +$15 10-20 03:54
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +4,000 $1,384 66¢ $2.6K +$1,236 09-25 07:44
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +2,500 $1,820 96¢ $2.4K +$567 09-30 11:17
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169 No +3,457 $2,000 68¢ $2.4K +$368 09-30 08:30
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,276 $2,294 42¢ $2.2K -$78 10-09 14:24
will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31 No +2,000 $1,800 95¢ $1.9K +$95 08-17 02:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -1,966 -$1,659 87¢ $-1718 -$59 07-05 09:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,043 $2,585 16¢ $1.7K -$928 08-26 19:55
iran coup attempt by december 31 Yes +20,000 $2,607 8¢ $1.6K -$1,007 08-04 02:46
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31 No +2,000 $1,535 80¢ $1.6K +$55 08-16 21:58
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +2,000 $1,760 72¢ $1.4K -$330 10-24 20:39
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 Yes +11,872 $1,456 12¢ $1.4K -$90 10-01 21:28
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +8,809 $772 13¢ $1.1K +$373 09-21 04:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +18,291 $1,097 6¢ $1.1K +$0 10-27 10:46
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,137 $988 92¢ $1.0K +$52 09-28 15:31
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,000 $475 20¢ $1.0K +$550 10-26 16:50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +7,000 $1,170 15¢ $1.0K -$155 10-08 13:00
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +6,714 $985 15¢ $984 -$1 10-21 22:13
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +3,000 $569 30¢ $885 +$316 10-22 18:23
US recession by end of 2026? No -919 -$788 92¢ $-850 -$62 06-17 20:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +27,660 $7,514 3¢ $830 -$6,685 10-25 22:34