Realized P&L
-$11.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$7.29K
Hit rate
59.6%
Resolved
25
Trades
20,271
lifetime
Volume
$4.88M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$241
Open exposure
$44.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 06-30 18:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
74% 45% $-14,128
Other
25% 86% +$2,955
Tech
0%
Sports
0%
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 335 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +20,000 $12,047 55¢ $10.9K $-1,147 06-24 11:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +7,000 $3,025 100¢ $7.0K +$3,958 06-21 14:43
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No +5,693 $5,647 100¢ $5.7K +$31 06-27 08:10
Netanyahu out by June 30? No +4,249 $4,225 100¢ $4.2K +$20 06-30 19:48
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -7,000 $-3,379 59¢ $-4130 $-751 05-28 16:59
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +3,199 $3,111 99¢ $3.2K +$65 06-30 06:51
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No +2,667 $2,633 100¢ $2.7K +$23 06-27 07:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +2,500 $1,296 70¢ $1.8K +$454 06-28 01:30
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No +1,229 $1,168 94¢ $1.2K $-6 06-29 10:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +1,000 $960 100¢ $996 +$36 06-28 19:46
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +500 $494 100¢ $499 +$5 06-22 16:31
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +500 $497 100¢ $498 +$1 06-26 08:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +487 $484 100¢ $486 +$2 06-24 12:56
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +810 $365 48¢ $385 +$20 06-24 08:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +1,000 $340 32¢ $325 $-15 06-30 16:00
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No +174 $164 99¢ $172 +$8 06-22 14:12
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +133 $132 99¢ $132 +$0 06-23 22:38
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes -1,139 $-171 11¢ $-120 +$51 05-30 12:26
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +113 $112 100¢ $112 +$0 06-23 22:39
Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +97 $96 100¢ $97 +$0 06-23 22:39
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? No +87 $63 75¢ $65 +$2 06-22 14:12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +235 $59 26¢ $61 +$2 06-16 16:27
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +60 $60 99¢ $59 $-0 06-23 22:39
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +55 $55 100¢ $55 $-0 06-30 15:35
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes +486 $50 11¢ $52 +$2 06-23 22:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -9,459 $-2,607 $-43 +$2,564 06-27 23:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -10,009 $-5,277 $-25 +$5,252 06-19 21:04
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -11,056 $3,253 $-22 $-3,275 06-24 17:51
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes +10,079 $29 $10 $-19 06-23 16:40
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? No +6 $6 96¢ $6 $-0 06-22 23:18