(anonymous) 0x655e32…4ee0cc Create alert
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Realized P&L
-$393
Unrealized P&L
+$398
Hit rate
68.1%
Resolved
253
Trades
3,614
lifetime
Volume
$39.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$2.67K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-15
last 11-07 01:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Politics
52% 60% -$256
Other
45% 50% -$139
Tech
2% 40% -$6
Sports
0% 100% +$6
Crypto
0% 67% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 140 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +434 $295 75¢ $325 +$30 10-30 21:46
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +328 $210 90¢ $293 +$83 11-02 15:59
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +392 $260 70¢ $273 +$12 11-06 21:09
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +180 $163 99¢ $178 +$15 09-19 05:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +217 $146 68¢ $149 +$2 11-06 22:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +171 $130 80¢ $137 +$6 11-06 23:20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +214 $118 64¢ $136 +$18 10-31 21:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027? No +200 $120 58¢ $117 -$3 11-05 21:57
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +117 $82 88¢ $103 +$21 10-23 23:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? Yes +452 $104 22¢ $97 -$7 11-05 21:57
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +654 $94 14¢ $91 -$3 11-06 22:06
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? No +90 $68 78¢ $70 +$3 11-02 20:36
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +82 $52 68¢ $55 +$4 10-20 20:59
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? Yes +74 $54 73¢ $54 +$1 11-06 18:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? Yes +663 $134 8¢ $50 -$85 11-03 10:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +50 $33 97¢ $48 +$15 08-25 20:14
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +117 $47 41¢ $48 +$1 10-30 19:20
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? Yes +81 $40 59¢ $48 +$8 11-06 22:57
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +68 $44 68¢ $46 +$2 10-31 04:53
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +46 $29 88¢ $40 +$11 10-23 07:44
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027? No +50 $39 79¢ $39 +$1 10-22 20:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +40 -$116 90¢ $37 +$152 11-01 14:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +44 -$29 79¢ $35 +$64 11-06 15:16
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Yes +111 $36 29¢ $32 -$5 11-07 01:13
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +31 $16 99¢ $31 +$15 11-07 01:56
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +121 $41 25¢ $30 -$10 10-29 17:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +32 -$6 90¢ $29 +$35 10-22 16:56
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +28 $24 98¢ $28 +$4 11-04 07:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +25 $22 100¢ $25 +$3 09-04 12:54
No one announced as next James Bond? No +27 $22 90¢ $24 +$3 09-10 13:05