Soggy-Twig — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.75K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.5%

Resolved

Trades

73,533

lifetime

Volume

$6.89M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 08-13 00:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

91% 29% $-4,750

Other

7% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 907 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,196	$275.7K	270,630	209,147	+61,483	open	—	05-28 14:14
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1,549	$190.6K	239,828	175,213	+64,615	open	—	02-28 07:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1,136	$149.8K	123,493	101,406	+22,087	open	—	04-22 20:14
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	917	$144.4K	149,254	142,577	+6,677	open	—	02-28 19:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	955	$142.4K	153,942	84,899	+69,043	open	—	03-27 15:24
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	1,165	$134.0K	126,605	87,058	+39,547	open	—	02-07 04:09
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1,686	$130.2K	158,167	98,876	+59,291	open	—	05-01 03:04
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1,004	$128.0K	156,311	99,242	+57,069	open	—	04-01 19:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	1,136	$123.4K	151,789	106,700	+45,089	open	—	04-24 12:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1,398	$120.5K	113,269	102,965	+10,305	open	—	02-28 20:18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1,238	$112.5K	129,964	89,930	+40,033	open	—	04-21 17:32
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	861	$112.3K	109,876	77,874	+32,002	open	—	04-16 01:13
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1,306	$109.0K	125,891	99,581	+26,310	open	—	02-28 07:02
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1,133	$107.3K	109,439	89,508	+19,931	open	—	02-28 06:59
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	513	$107.2K	86,356	66,126	+20,230	open	—	04-08 07:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1,246	$103.8K	138,543	94,209	+44,335	open	—	04-07 23:03
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	903	$102.0K	98,125	77,176	+20,949	open	—	03-19 13:19
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	789	$100.6K	179,590	143,968	+35,621	open	—	04-08 18:42
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	750	$92.6K	108,565	92,962	+15,603	open	—	02-14 04:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	797	$89.0K	94,380	75,210	+19,170	open	—	04-07 22:31
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	882	$85.4K	92,357	45,379	+46,978	open	—	02-21 03:25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	618	$81.7K	84,620	79,919	+4,701	open	—	04-21 21:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	904	$78.7K	76,948	48,531	+28,417	open	—	04-08 14:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	698	$74.0K	83,739	65,101	+18,639	open	—	04-25 20:08
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	712	$73.9K	85,784	58,101	+27,683	open	—	04-21 21:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	784	$72.4K	75,225	64,608	+10,617	open	—	04-21 21:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1,026	$71.9K	95,339	52,091	+43,248	open	—	07-01 02:56
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	486	$70.8K	71,204	36,872	+34,332	open	—	02-28 03:29
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	213	$67.2K	34,700	46,221	-11,521	open	—	02-02 00:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	355	$67.2K	76,843	58,313	+18,530	open	—	05-27 01:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 00:13:42	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x3636ca…
08-12 22:26:36	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x94d556…
08-12 22:26:36	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	Yes	BUY	163	27¢	$44	0x7b81d4…
08-12 22:26:34	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xf936ab…
08-12 22:26:34	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	Yes	BUY	289	28¢	$81	0x374c6d…
08-12 22:26:31	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	Yes	BUY	484	29¢	$140	0x9acbf2…
08-12 21:30:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	38	16¢	$6	0xa97e46…
08-12 20:58:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	157	75¢	$117	0x92bdca…
08-12 20:58:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	180	25¢	$45	0x92bdca…
08-12 15:57:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	110	16¢	$18	0xb3e6b6…
08-12 15:57:03	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	81	16¢	$13	0xa634b1…
08-12 15:57:00	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	381	16¢	$61	0x6f3ee3…
08-12 15:51:03	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	SELL	194	8¢	$15	0x63dc91…
08-12 06:45:09	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0xf4ae67…
08-12 05:49:30	us iran final nuclear deal by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xb6b33d…
08-12 03:01:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	525	19¢	$100	0xd2c20e…
08-12 03:01:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	648	81¢	$525	0xd2c20e…
08-11 23:35:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	70¢	$22	0xedb538…
08-11 18:07:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xe2b406…
08-11 12:54:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x37f0a6…
08-11 09:28:48	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	200	56¢	$112	0xb4b41f…
08-11 09:28:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	293	30¢	$88	0x4354b2…
08-11 09:28:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	318	70¢	$223	0x4354b2…
08-11 09:28:45	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	252	56¢	$141	0x055dc3…
08-10 16:53:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	429	10¢	$41	0x7f3f5f…
08-10 16:53:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	115	83¢	$95	0x5dd04f…
08-10 16:53:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0x5dd04f…
08-10 16:53:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$48	0x32eda7…
08-10 16:53:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x30e59f…
08-10 16:53:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	240	90¢	$217	0x0291a6…
08-10 16:06:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	131	90¢	$118	0xd0f484…
08-10 15:49:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	388	87¢	$338	0xb438b7…
08-10 15:49:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	SELL	197	13¢	$26	0xb438b7…
08-10 15:49:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	155	86¢	$134	0x8b4ace…
08-10 15:48:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	500	66¢	$330	0x57d260…
08-10 15:48:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x57d260…
08-10 15:48:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	205	65¢	$133	0x6c5c59…
08-10 14:47:19	iran leadership change by november 30	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x659e11…
08-10 13:45:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	80	8¢	$7	0xb508dc…
08-10 11:56:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	225	77¢	$174	0x215041…
08-10 11:56:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x215041…
08-10 11:26:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xfef399…
08-10 11:26:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	409	10¢	$41	0xfef399…
08-10 11:13:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	391	90¢	$350	0xd9c5a5…
08-10 10:41:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	500	89¢	$447	0x012e6c…
08-10 08:21:01	iran leadership change by august 15	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x05589d…
08-10 03:14:00	iran leadership change by august 15	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x43e58b…
08-09 22:59:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xa11297…
08-09 22:59:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	42	78¢	$33	0xa87687…
08-09 22:59:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0xa87687…
08-09 22:21:15	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0xea1a46…
08-09 22:11:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0xc6af1c…
08-09 21:53:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	114	87¢	$99	0x95a995…
08-09 21:27:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x5d391f…
08-09 21:27:15	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x4085ee…
08-09 20:50:06	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x0b680e…
08-09 19:41:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xe45b86…
08-09 19:13:48	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x4eeca6…
08-09 19:13:48	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x4eeca6…
08-09 19:00:22	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x1796ab…
08-09 19:00:21	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xc1a6df…
08-09 19:00:21	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x43793a…
08-09 18:54:01	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x2a9fec…
08-09 18:33:48	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xc6969e…
08-09 18:33:48	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x96e64f…
08-09 18:33:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	22	25¢	$6	0xa75573…
08-09 18:33:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x9320a8…
08-09 18:33:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x4138ce…
08-09 18:24:33	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	98	74¢	$72	0xe8ffa4…
08-09 18:18:49	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x7de978…
08-09 18:18:49	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x7de978…
08-09 18:01:25	iran leadership change by august 15	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x7c520d…
08-09 17:45:52	iran leadership change by august 15	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xa922e0…
08-09 17:19:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	800	47¢	$376	0xa5388f…
08-09 17:16:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	91	46¢	$42	0x0611f2…
08-09 17:15:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0xce317d…
08-09 17:12:33	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	700	72¢	$504	0x57db2d…
08-09 16:03:16	will netanyahu be pardoned by december 31	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x419c98…
08-09 10:48:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x1e2483…
08-09 07:52:57	iran leadership change by august 22	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xe6e06c…
08-09 07:52:52	iran leadership change by august 22	No	BUY	51	96¢	$48	0x9c3c6d…
08-09 07:52:30	iran leadership change by august 22	No	BUY	106	96¢	$101	0xa7e200…
08-09 07:18:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0x6ad5e2…
08-09 07:15:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	29	94¢	$28	0x6d7b2e…
08-09 04:52:36	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x24ec9e…
08-09 04:00:30	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x1b19ec…
08-09 03:58:54	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x795452…
08-09 03:58:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x88a429…
08-09 03:57:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x1d25be…
08-09 03:55:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$0	0xfd8fce…
08-09 03:52:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x562ab9…
08-09 03:50:48	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0xfc74b1…
08-09 03:48:45	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x7e8c74…
08-09 03:46:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0xc8cf7b…
08-09 03:44:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x20f2c9…
08-09 03:41:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x537c5e…
08-09 03:38:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x30f1f9…
08-09 03:36:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0xeaebbf…
08-09 03:36:42	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x5d5001…
08-09 03:34:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$0	0x4ca3ed…