Valuable-Environment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$84

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,123

lifetime

Volume

$211.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$188

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-10 12:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

78% 33% +$84

Other

20% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	14	$9.4K	4,851	4,851	+0	open	—	05-30 19:16
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	16	$9.3K	8,257	8,257	+0	open	—	02-26 10:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	31	$9.0K	6,597	6,597	+0	open	—	04-21 22:09
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	51	$8.2K	10,301	8,286	+2,015	open	—	08-10 12:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	18	$7.4K	4,097	4,097	+0	open	—	04-21 20:04
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	8	$7.0K	4,531	4,530	+0	open	—	01-27 00:45
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	2	$7.0K	3,594	3,594	+0	open	—	01-29 01:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	42	$6.9K	4,169	4,169	+0	open	—	04-21 16:26
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	14	$6.4K	4,152	4,152	+0	open	—	02-19 14:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	13	$6.4K	3,730	3,730	+0	open	—	05-30 15:34
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	20	$5.8K	8,428	0	+8,428	open	—	02-27 17:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	32	$5.7K	3,753	3,753	+0	open	—	08-03 13:50
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	8	$5.5K	6,402	3,539	+2,864	open	—	02-27 14:07
Iran leadership change by December 31?	16	$5.3K	3,250	3,110	+139	open	—	08-06 16:08
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	15	$5.1K	2,782	2,782	+0	open	—	06-24 00:18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	7	$5.0K	5,433	273	+5,160	open	—	05-30 22:49
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by march 31	9	$4.6K	2,589	2,775	-186	open	—	02-03 01:22
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	7	$4.5K	4,366	4,366	+0	open	—	02-14 00:50
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	19	$4.4K	4,012	2,158	+1,853	open	—	02-27 20:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	15	$4.3K	2,629	2,629	+0	open	—	02-01 18:01
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	6	$4.3K	2,420	2,420	+0	open	—	06-13 00:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	10	$4.3K	2,221	2,221	+0	open	—	06-19 19:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	23	$3.8K	4,160	4,160	+0	open	—	07-30 02:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	40	$3.5K	2,942	2,942	+0	open	—	04-04 19:34
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	9	$3.0K	1,473	1,871	-399	open	—	06-15 01:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	23	$2.9K	2,399	2,399	+0	open	—	04-29 20:59
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	25	$2.9K	3,049	3,049	+0	open	—	04-04 19:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	19	$2.7K	1,634	1,615	+18	open	—	08-08 21:12
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	30	$2.5K	1,670	1,670	+0	open	—	03-30 00:16
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	22	$2.5K	1,045	1,927	-882	open	—	08-08 18:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 12:56:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	327	29¢	$95	0x6b7483…
08-10 12:56:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	353	29¢	$102	0xe46530…
08-10 12:55:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	84	91¢	$76	0x9762c9…
08-10 12:52:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	342	37¢	$127	0xab2567…
08-10 12:50:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	65	91¢	$59	0x0ee4e6…
08-10 12:50:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	275	16¢	$44	0xbdeadb…
08-10 05:26:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	65	35¢	$23	0xc338b8…
08-10 05:25:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	142	16¢	$23	0xc05faf…
08-09 04:43:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	135	87¢	$117	0x434629…
08-09 03:35:12	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	297	10¢	$30	0x67651a…
08-09 03:32:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	SELL	195	76¢	$148	0x093bf1…
08-09 03:30:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	123	87¢	$107	0x917747…
08-09 03:29:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0xa26057…
08-09 03:26:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x2b61e5…
08-08 23:43:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$11	0x593f86…
08-08 23:43:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x31fba0…
08-08 22:54:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	SELL	29	71¢	$21	0xc42142…
08-08 21:13:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	78	83¢	$65	0x5a49d5…
08-08 21:12:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	77	84¢	$65	0x5b0b53…
08-08 20:44:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	SELL	14	71¢	$10	0xcce4e7…
08-08 19:19:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	338	69¢	$234	0x7da1f2…
08-08 19:17:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	SELL	8	58¢	$4	0x7d1212…
08-08 18:58:16	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	51	93¢	$47	0x600819…
08-08 18:57:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	103	83¢	$85	0x8d5204…
08-08 18:57:42	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$96	0x5df2ce…
08-08 18:56:22	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	316	11¢	$33	0xd7eec5…
08-08 18:55:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	436	8¢	$35	0xc3a3da…
08-08 17:03:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x1d4cf9…
08-08 16:55:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	224	9¢	$20	0xb7f615…
08-08 16:53:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	596	86¢	$513	0x98a50e…
08-08 16:52:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	618	83¢	$513	0x3b5a6d…
08-08 16:52:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	41	86¢	$35	0x11f1b5…
08-08 16:52:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x77859c…
08-08 02:20:58	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xda083e…
08-08 02:20:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	24	88¢	$21	0x2d19b6…
08-07 23:57:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xe584f9…
08-07 23:46:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	75	28¢	$21	0xd5e74a…
08-07 23:45:37	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	729	3¢	$22	0x93dc19…
08-07 20:17:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	252	13¢	$33	0x1480d6…
08-07 20:17:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0xfe7d0f…
08-07 17:47:10	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	86	87¢	$75	0x986f29…
08-07 17:46:09	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	218	4¢	$8	0xa3ffba…
08-07 16:57:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	364	83¢	$302	0xba6299…
08-07 16:01:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	527	84¢	$443	0x7a468a…
08-07 01:08:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x86dd02…
08-07 01:08:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	400	78¢	$312	0x7ecb4b…
08-06 21:16:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x6fb96a…
08-06 21:16:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	210	12¢	$25	0x0c216a…
08-06 18:39:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xebbd5b…
08-06 18:34:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	468	5¢	$22	0xe64fed…
08-06 18:32:08	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	351	5¢	$16	0x938346…
08-06 18:25:38	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0xd8ffc0…
08-06 18:25:24	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0xfae3b9…
08-06 18:25:17	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0xe2f3ab…
08-06 18:24:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0x09fd39…
08-06 18:23:27	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	48	97¢	$46	0xd36767…
08-06 16:26:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	63	84¢	$53	0x7eea38…
08-06 16:25:56	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	54	97¢	$52	0x43a243…
08-06 16:22:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	516	76¢	$392	0xaa73de…
08-06 16:08:29	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	175	85¢	$148	0x6018cc…
08-06 16:06:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	185	80¢	$148	0x8c02de…
08-06 16:04:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0x2d580b…
08-06 16:04:33	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0x88e26f…
08-06 16:04:17	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	102	97¢	$99	0x1d6eb8…
08-06 16:02:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	184	16¢	$29	0x0876cf…
08-05 22:45:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	35	84¢	$29	0x387b27…
08-05 21:48:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	74	30¢	$22	0x737977…
08-05 21:35:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	34¢	$22	0x8c8fd8…
08-05 19:12:02	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0xa1e22f…
08-05 19:11:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	349	86¢	$300	0x59e9d6…
08-05 19:11:12	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	310	97¢	$300	0xb72467…
08-05 19:10:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,527	3¢	$43	0xfb53c9…
08-05 19:10:20	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,601	84¢	$1,345	0x9e0e14…
08-05 01:54:59	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x89b625…
08-05 01:54:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	32	83¢	$27	0x7e50e1…
08-05 00:26:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	86	30¢	$26	0x4253e9…
08-05 00:21:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	87	30¢	$26	0x4355df…
08-05 00:12:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	95	30¢	$28	0x58184a…
08-04 23:18:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	95	83¢	$79	0x485db8…
08-04 17:17:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	144	18¢	$26	0x829421…
08-04 17:06:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	424	17¢	$72	0x3cf8e6…
08-04 16:59:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0xf0da79…
08-04 16:55:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xfa7c16…
08-04 16:48:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x704f35…
08-04 16:29:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x11bb08…
08-04 16:27:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	88	17¢	$15	0x2af9b1…
08-04 15:35:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	185	81¢	$150	0x8dba84…
08-04 15:35:05	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,527	3¢	$52	0x0ed722…
08-04 15:34:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	800	74¢	$592	0xc11c7c…
08-04 02:29:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	245	47¢	$115	0x7c1f63…
08-04 02:03:47	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	320	48¢	$154	0xc830f0…
08-04 00:12:32	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0x12991a…
08-04 00:12:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	114	52¢	$59	0x660d53…
08-04 00:11:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	465	13¢	$60	0x76b526…
08-04 00:09:56	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	558	5¢	$26	0x6c6611…
08-04 00:03:41	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	26	5¢	$1	0xe326f2…
08-04 00:02:50	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	310	5¢	$14	0xba01c6…
08-04 00:01:53	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	285	5¢	$13	0x8f909c…
08-03 23:23:41	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	230	5¢	$11	0x5f0af2…
08-03 20:48:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	80	59¢	$47	0xb90827…