Realized P&L
-$6.37K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.38K
Hit rate
19.1%
Resolved
8
Trades
48,465
lifetime
Volume
$611.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$15.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-22 00:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
45%
62%
$-6,373
Other
34%
—
—
Crypto
19%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1276 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +2,628 | $1,936 | 72¢ | $1.9K | $-31 | 07-20 11:34 | |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | -2,024 | $-1,692 | 84¢ | $-1691 | +$0 | 07-17 06:59 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,744 | $1,159 | 88¢ | $1.5K | +$384 | 07-02 13:42 | |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | +1,201 | $996 | 88¢ | $1.1K | +$54 | 07-04 10:53 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | +7,972 | $349 | 12¢ | $917 | +$568 | 07-20 15:30 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | -700 | $-685 | 98¢ | $-686 | $-1 | 06-09 07:08 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +806 | $400 | 80¢ | $640 | +$240 | 06-25 16:06 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | -583 | $-580 | 98¢ | $-571 | +$9 | 07-01 12:15 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | -525 | $-508 | 94¢ | $-491 | +$17 | 07-07 04:12 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | +475 | $450 | 99¢ | $468 | +$18 | 06-22 14:35 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,429 | $717 | 18¢ | $449 | $-267 | 06-26 06:34 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | -545 | $-518 | 82¢ | $-447 | +$71 | 07-21 14:46 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -409 | $-393 | 97¢ | $-396 | $-3 | 06-06 08:55 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +396 | $245 | 84¢ | $334 | +$89 | 06-26 10:50 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | +369 | $240 | 76¢ | $280 | +$40 | 07-20 07:56 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -300 | $-261 | 92¢ | $-274 | $-14 | 06-01 02:57 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,603 | $300 | 11¢ | $273 | $-27 | 07-19 10:04 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +6,698 | $430 | 4¢ | $268 | $-163 | 06-23 10:07 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +486 | $19 | 54¢ | $260 | +$240 | 07-21 03:27 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | -281 | $-276 | 88¢ | $-249 | +$27 | 07-18 08:44 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | -231 | $-216 | 94¢ | $-218 | $-2 | 06-14 11:52 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -225 | $-211 | 96¢ | $-216 | $-5 | 06-20 22:18 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | +231 | $133 | 93¢ | $215 | +$82 | 07-19 10:02 | |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | No | +226 | $188 | 92¢ | $209 | +$21 | 07-05 10:56 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +214 | $206 | 97¢ | $207 | +$1 | 07-20 15:44 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,927 | $215 | 7¢ | $205 | $-10 | 07-09 12:57 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,038 | $299 | 10¢ | $204 | $-95 | 07-20 07:34 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +7,406 | $118 | 3¢ | $196 | +$79 | 07-16 09:29 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +212 | $187 | 92¢ | $194 | +$7 | 07-20 16:21 | |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -217 | $-235 | 88¢ | $-190 | +$45 | 07-09 21:14 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 155 | $35.1K | 144,481 | 149,843 | -5,362 | open | — | 02-03 07:09 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 99 | $15.8K | 8,630 | 10,958 | -2,328 | open | — | 04-07 22:35 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 446 | $14.3K | 118,047 | 118,813 | -766 | open | — | 06-30 03:06 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 313 | $14.0K | 116,151 | 118,349 | -2,198 | open | — | 04-21 18:12 |
| will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026 | 673 | $13.3K | 119,967 | 89,417 | +30,550 | open | — | 02-25 10:01 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 208 | $13.2K | 111,409 | 120,309 | -8,899 | open | — | 04-22 12:29 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 42 | $8.9K | 4,924 | 9,548 | -4,624 | Yes | $-1,252 | 05-09 18:29 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 223 | $8.1K | 24,092 | 28,448 | -4,356 | Yes | $-5,696 | 05-09 05:57 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 60 | $8.1K | 23,523 | 9,529 | +13,994 | open | — | 07-20 15:30 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 70 | $8.0K | 8,906 | 5,762 | +3,144 | open | — | 07-20 11:34 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | 234 | $7.4K | 40,189 | 46,804 | -6,615 | open | — | 05-29 22:47 |
| will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026 | 148 | $7.2K | 9,319 | 8,163 | +1,156 | open | — | 01-31 22:29 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15 | 199 | $7.1K | 113,614 | 113,614 | +0 | open | — | 07-15 01:24 |
| will the us invade iran by march 31 | 122 | $7.1K | 22,639 | 14,134 | +8,505 | open | — | 03-31 23:00 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 131 | $7.1K | 12,638 | 8,805 | +3,833 | open | — | 04-07 22:45 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 537 | $6.8K | 118,210 | 100,040 | +18,169 | open | — | 05-31 03:06 |
| will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929 | 69 | $6.8K | 3,431 | 5,458 | -2,027 | open | — | 03-23 06:40 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 209 | $6.7K | 291,045 | 291,045 | +0 | open | — | 06-17 09:30 |
| will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026 | 182 | $6.6K | 7,254 | 7,254 | +0 | open | — | 06-30 14:01 |
| will ethereum reach 2800 in february 2026 | 392 | $6.1K | 84,342 | 52,882 | +31,460 | open | — | 02-25 12:27 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 95 | $6.1K | 7,554 | 5,959 | +1,595 | open | — | 07-20 16:15 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | 283 | $5.9K | 50,352 | 24,821 | +25,531 | open | — | 05-15 07:10 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 96 | $5.8K | 17,867 | 18,640 | -773 | open | — | 05-29 20:24 |
| will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026 | 158 | $5.8K | 4,389 | 4,261 | +129 | open | — | 06-30 21:08 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 307 | $5.8K | 147,778 | 142,206 | +5,572 | open | — | 01-31 11:53 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 264 | $5.6K | 41,877 | 41,877 | +0 | open | — | 07-20 07:59 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | 156 | $5.2K | 16,863 | 20,943 | -4,081 | open | — | 05-30 07:29 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 4 | $5.2K | 3,100 | 2,100 | +1,000 | open | — | 02-03 11:37 |
| will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026 | 247 | $5.2K | 20,151 | 20,384 | -233 | open | — | 02-25 18:05 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677 | 160 | $5.1K | 29,450 | 23,027 | +6,423 | open | — | 04-14 23:53 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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