Realized P&L
-$6.37K
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
19.1%
Resolved
8
Trades
47,291
lifetime
Volume
$560.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$17.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
47%
62%
$-6,373
Other
31%
—
—
Crypto
20%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1276 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | No | -1,952 | $-1,963 | 100¢ | $-1945 | +$18 | 06-14 11:14 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,204 | $1,542 | 78¢ | $1.7K | +$166 | 06-29 20:57 | |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | No | +1,034 | $1,002 | 100¢ | $1.0K | +$31 | 06-28 12:31 | |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | -1,218 | $-1,009 | 81¢ | $-982 | +$27 | 06-29 15:34 | |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | +1,105 | $921 | 84¢ | $923 | +$2 | 06-29 18:23 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | -919 | $-923 | 100¢ | $-918 | +$5 | 06-07 04:53 | |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? | No | -915 | $-919 | 100¢ | $-914 | +$5 | 06-17 17:18 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | -700 | $-685 | 98¢ | $-687 | $-2 | 06-09 07:08 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | -688 | $-680 | 97¢ | $-667 | +$13 | 06-06 14:43 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +650 | $542 | 86¢ | $562 | +$20 | 06-21 16:58 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | -638 | $-574 | 82¢ | $-526 | +$48 | 06-12 00:47 | |
| Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | No | -498 | $-495 | 100¢ | $-497 | $-2 | 06-17 15:46 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | +475 | $450 | 98¢ | $464 | +$14 | 06-22 14:35 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,429 | $717 | 19¢ | $462 | $-255 | 06-26 06:34 | |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | No | -440 | $-418 | 100¢ | $-439 | $-21 | 06-15 22:21 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +806 | $400 | 54¢ | $435 | +$35 | 06-25 16:06 | |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | -409 | $-405 | 100¢ | $-408 | $-3 | 06-11 16:46 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | -406 | $-405 | 100¢ | $-406 | $-1 | 06-15 14:26 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -409 | $-393 | 95¢ | $-389 | +$4 | 06-06 08:55 | |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | -384 | $-386 | 100¢ | $-384 | +$3 | 06-11 16:32 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +6,698 | $430 | 4¢ | $301 | $-129 | 06-23 10:07 | |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? | No | -302 | $-300 | 100¢ | $-301 | $-1 | 06-22 05:19 | |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | No | +316 | $300 | 95¢ | $301 | +$1 | 06-26 11:18 | |
| Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? | No | -279 | $-284 | 100¢ | $-279 | +$6 | 06-30 09:58 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +396 | $245 | 70¢ | $275 | +$30 | 06-26 10:50 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -300 | $-261 | 89¢ | $-267 | $-6 | 06-01 02:57 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,011 | $297 | 12¢ | $251 | $-46 | 06-28 04:07 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | -284 | $-266 | 82¢ | $-232 | +$35 | 06-16 20:03 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | -231 | $-216 | 93¢ | $-214 | +$3 | 06-14 11:52 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -225 | $-211 | 95¢ | $-213 | $-2 | 06-20 22:18 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 155 | $35.1K | 144,481 | 149,843 | -5,362 | open | — | 02-03 07:09 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 99 | $15.8K | 8,630 | 10,958 | -2,328 | open | — | 04-07 22:35 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 446 | $14.3K | 118,047 | 118,813 | -766 | open | — | 06-30 03:06 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 313 | $14.0K | 116,151 | 118,349 | -2,198 | open | — | 04-21 18:12 |
| will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026 | 673 | $13.3K | 119,967 | 89,417 | +30,550 | open | — | 02-25 10:01 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 208 | $13.2K | 111,409 | 120,309 | -8,899 | open | — | 04-22 12:29 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 42 | $8.9K | 4,924 | 9,548 | -4,624 | Yes | $-1,252 | 05-09 18:29 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 223 | $8.1K | 24,092 | 28,448 | -4,356 | Yes | $-5,696 | 05-09 05:57 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | 234 | $7.4K | 40,189 | 46,804 | -6,615 | open | — | 05-29 22:47 |
| will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026 | 148 | $7.2K | 9,319 | 8,163 | +1,156 | open | — | 01-31 22:29 |
| will the us invade iran by march 31 | 122 | $7.1K | 22,639 | 14,134 | +8,505 | open | — | 03-31 23:00 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 131 | $7.1K | 12,638 | 8,805 | +3,833 | open | — | 04-07 22:45 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 537 | $6.8K | 118,210 | 100,040 | +18,169 | open | — | 05-31 03:06 |
| will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929 | 69 | $6.8K | 3,431 | 5,458 | -2,027 | open | — | 03-23 06:40 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 209 | $6.7K | 291,045 | 291,045 | +0 | open | — | 06-17 09:30 |
| will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026 | 182 | $6.6K | 7,254 | 7,254 | +0 | open | — | 06-30 14:01 |
| will ethereum reach 2800 in february 2026 | 392 | $6.1K | 84,342 | 52,882 | +31,460 | open | — | 02-25 12:27 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | 283 | $5.9K | 50,352 | 24,821 | +25,531 | open | — | 05-15 07:10 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 96 | $5.8K | 17,867 | 18,640 | -773 | open | — | 05-29 20:24 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 307 | $5.8K | 147,778 | 142,206 | +5,572 | open | — | 01-31 11:53 |
| will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026 | 154 | $5.7K | 4,389 | 4,175 | +215 | open | — | 06-30 14:14 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | 156 | $5.2K | 16,863 | 20,943 | -4,081 | open | — | 05-30 07:29 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 4 | $5.2K | 3,100 | 2,100 | +1,000 | open | — | 02-03 11:37 |
| will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026 | 247 | $5.2K | 20,151 | 20,384 | -233 | open | — | 02-25 18:05 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677 | 160 | $5.1K | 29,450 | 23,027 | +6,423 | open | — | 04-14 23:53 |
| us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625 | 98 | $5.0K | 30,213 | 25,801 | +4,412 | open | — | 01-18 00:31 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | 68 | $4.9K | 5,659 | 17,420 | -11,760 | open | — | 06-26 23:28 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 302 | $4.7K | 56,185 | 58,755 | -2,570 | open | — | 03-27 14:37 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 89 | $4.7K | 6,600 | 6,444 | +156 | open | — | 02-27 18:04 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 347 | $4.4K | 50,855 | 44,890 | +5,965 | open | — | 04-28 13:09 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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