Realized P&L
+$11.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.41K
Hit rate
72.3%
Resolved
539
Trades
56,610
lifetime
Volume
$780.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$21.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 13:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 111 days
Categories
Politics
43%
72%
+$3,318
Other
37%
62%
+$1,161
Crypto
17%
66%
+$5,426
Tech
3%
59%
+$1,845
Sports
0%
70%
-$536
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 320 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +4,775 | $3,955 | 97¢ | $4.6K | +$670 | 10-26 10:25 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +2,740 | $1,919 | 82¢ | $2.3K | +$342 | 10-25 22:33 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,865 | $1,156 | 40¢ | $1.2K | +$1 | 10-15 20:48 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | -1,050 | -$1,027 | 99¢ | $-1037 | -$9 | 06-09 07:08 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | -1,046 | -$1,262 | 99¢ | $-1035 | +$228 | 07-01 12:15 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | +995 | $416 | 96¢ | $951 | +$535 | 10-19 05:27 | |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | +941 | $900 | 98¢ | $924 | +$24 | 10-25 22:59 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | -962 | -$1,138 | 84¢ | $-813 | +$325 | 08-21 21:00 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | -838 | -$792 | 97¢ | $-812 | -$20 | 09-22 09:31 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -801 | -$769 | 98¢ | $-789 | -$20 | 06-06 08:55 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +806 | $400 | 96¢ | $774 | +$374 | 06-25 16:06 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | +723 | -$451 | 98¢ | $705 | +$1,156 | 10-29 06:46 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -627 | -$572 | 98¢ | $-616 | -$44 | 06-01 02:57 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? | No | -516 | -$464 | 98¢ | $-505 | -$41 | 06-25 01:32 | |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | No | +451 | $222 | 99¢ | $445 | +$223 | 10-28 17:58 | |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | -443 | -$1,322 | 92¢ | $-406 | +$916 | 10-03 14:00 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -400 | -$375 | 98¢ | $-392 | -$16 | 06-20 22:18 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | +7,620 | $589 | 4¢ | $324 | -$266 | 10-01 14:58 | |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | -1,000 | -$70 | 31¢ | $-308 | -$238 | 04-29 20:15 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +2,365 | $443 | 12¢ | $272 | -$171 | 10-19 10:55 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | -400 | -$212 | 66¢ | $-266 | -$54 | 08-03 22:28 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | +270 | $188 | 97¢ | $261 | +$73 | 10-08 19:01 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +165,896 | $48 | 0¢ | $249 | +$201 | 10-16 00:35 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +211 | $200 | 96¢ | $203 | +$3 | 10-17 11:07 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +44,799 | $179 | 0¢ | $202 | +$23 | 10-26 18:30 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | -211 | -$215 | 96¢ | $-202 | +$14 | 09-18 20:39 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -200 | -$190 | 99¢ | $-198 | -$8 | 05-19 02:09 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | -200 | -$184 | 98¢ | $-196 | -$12 | 05-17 01:03 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | +1,981 | -$980 | 10¢ | $188 | +$1,169 | 10-18 07:54 | |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | -192 | -$217 | 96¢ | $-184 | +$33 | 10-19 23:45 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 155 | $35.1K | 144,481 | 149,843 | -5,362 | Yes | +$145 | 02-03 07:09 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 155 | $17.6K | 21,403 | 18,663 | +2,740 | open | — | 10-25 22:33 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 495 | $17.3K | 124,667 | 122,766 | +1,901 | No | +$347 | 06-30 03:06 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 100 | $16.3K | 27,931 | 25,950 | +1,981 | open | — | 10-18 07:54 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 99 | $15.8K | 8,630 | 10,958 | -2,328 | Yes | +$2,611 | 04-07 22:35 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 313 | $14.0K | 116,151 | 118,349 | -2,198 | Yes | -$674 | 04-21 18:12 |
| will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026 | 673 | $13.3K | 119,967 | 89,417 | +30,550 | No | -$194 | 02-25 10:01 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 208 | $13.2K | 111,409 | 120,309 | -8,899 | Yes | +$843 | 04-22 12:29 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | 184 | $12.4K | 17,232 | 17,572 | -340 | Yes | +$893 | 10-23 00:32 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | 94 | $9.6K | 18,514 | 19,753 | -1,239 | No | +$451 | 06-26 23:28 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 42 | $8.9K | 4,924 | 9,548 | -4,624 | Yes | -$1,252 | 05-09 18:29 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 116 | $8.4K | 9,190 | 8,057 | +1,133 | open | — | 10-29 14:10 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 137 | $8.2K | 13,491 | 11,126 | +2,365 | open | — | 10-19 10:55 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | 106 | $8.1K | 5,222 | 6,184 | -962 | open | — | 08-21 21:00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 223 | $8.1K | 24,092 | 28,448 | -4,356 | Yes | -$5,696 | 05-09 05:57 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | 242 | $7.8K | 42,333 | 47,898 | -5,564 | No | +$1,013 | 05-29 22:47 |
| will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026 | 148 | $7.2K | 9,319 | 8,163 | +1,156 | No | +$447 | 01-31 22:29 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15 | 199 | $7.1K | 113,614 | 113,614 | +0 | No | -$20 | 07-15 01:24 |
| will the us invade iran by march 31 | 122 | $7.1K | 22,639 | 14,134 | +8,505 | No | +$37 | 03-31 23:00 |
| meloni out as prime minister of italy by december 31 | 82 | $7.1K | 7,332 | 785 | +6,548 | open | — | 10-27 19:39 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 131 | $7.1K | 12,638 | 8,805 | +3,833 | Yes | -$77 | 04-07 22:45 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 567 | $7.0K | 126,757 | 109,449 | +17,308 | No | +$183 | 05-31 03:06 |
| will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929 | 69 | $6.8K | 3,431 | 5,458 | -2,027 | No | +$452 | 03-23 06:40 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 209 | $6.7K | 291,045 | 291,045 | +0 | Yes | +$240 | 06-17 09:30 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | 88 | $6.6K | 5,217 | 5,043 | +174 | open | — | 10-18 15:47 |
| will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026 | 182 | $6.6K | 7,254 | 7,254 | +0 | No | +$1,064 | 06-30 14:01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 342 | $6.3K | 171,125 | 171,125 | +0 | No | -$160 | 08-02 13:34 |
| will ethereum reach 2800 in february 2026 | 392 | $6.1K | 84,342 | 52,882 | +31,460 | No | -$791 | 02-25 12:27 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | 48 | $6.1K | 4,854 | 4,854 | +0 | Yes | +$257 | 06-16 12:34 |
| will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 | 64 | $6.0K | 3,357 | 3,357 | +0 | open | — | 09-23 10:30 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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