Downright-Website — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$871

Unrealized P&L

+$812

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,746

lifetime

Volume

$1.48M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$540

Open exposure

$24.2K

24 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 07-20 18:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

60% 100% +$30

Politics

39% 100% +$841

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day

Open positions (24) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	+10,126	$9,736	98¢	$9.9K	+$152	07-15 17:06
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	-4,106	$-3,842	76¢	$-3141	+$701	07-10 03:19
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?	No	+1,984	$1,623	92¢	$1.8K	+$211	07-15 22:11
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+1,369	$1,246	92¢	$1.3K	+$7	07-03 19:28
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	+1,303	$1,063	84¢	$1.1K	+$32	07-16 11:56
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+1,329	$991	80¢	$1.1K	+$79	07-05 19:30
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+991	$1,055	100¢	$990	$-65	06-18 00:59
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	+895	$865	97¢	$864	$-1	07-10 18:02
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	No	+1,271	$831	61¢	$775	$-56	07-20 13:46
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?	No	+1,309	$735	52¢	$687	$-48	07-15 14:47
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?	No	+607	$511	77¢	$467	$-43	07-20 07:30
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.?	No	+382	$319	90¢	$342	+$23	07-07 03:54
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	No	+369	$310	91¢	$336	+$26	07-06 10:20
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?	No	+373	$324	82¢	$304	$-20	07-07 21:39
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?	No	+302	$274	92¢	$276	+$3	07-15 07:45
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	No	+302	$242	73¢	$221	$-21	07-18 21:08
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?	No	+154	$125	79¢	$122	$-3	07-06 11:38
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	No	+337	$300	34¢	$115	$-185	07-02 15:13
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama	Nothing	+122	$108	91¢	$111	+$3	07-18 03:37
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	+117	$96	92¢	$107	+$11	07-06 07:58
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	+96	$73	78¢	$74	+$1	07-17 08:21
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	No	+68	$60	92¢	$62	+$2	07-09 15:19
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?	No	+32	$25	81¢	$26	+$1	07-20 15:56
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?	No	+14	$12	90¢	$12	+$0	07-17 16:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	111	$148.3K	85,359	65,845	+19,514	open	—	06-30 12:44
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	92	$145.2K	104,033	45,168	+58,865	open	—	07-20 11:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	175	$143.5K	83,395	62,522	+20,873	open	—	06-30 03:13
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	106	$130.8K	85,273	46,818	+38,455	open	—	05-31 02:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	60	$74.2K	78,239	0	+78,239	open	—	05-31 07:38
Iran leadership change by April 30?	29	$26.3K	23,061	5,900	+17,161	open	—	04-30 06:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	95	$24.3K	22,242	3,456	+18,786	open	—	03-31 07:36
Iran leadership change by May 31?	13	$23.8K	21,590	4,369	+17,221	open	—	05-31 22:28
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	19	$22.4K	11,318	11,318	+0	open	—	06-22 18:51
will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	27	$19.2K	19,841	0	+19,841	open	—	07-08 15:36
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	27	$19.2K	10,253	10,208	+45	open	—	07-16 01:22
will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	34	$19.0K	19,527	0	+19,527	open	—	07-08 15:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	9	$17.8K	11,289	7,551	+3,738	open	—	05-22 01:53
Iran leadership change by June 30?	106	$16.5K	12,334	4,842	+7,491	open	—	06-15 16:38
will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	42	$16.2K	17,177	0	+17,177	open	—	07-08 14:32
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	6	$15.9K	16,430	0	+16,430	open	—	07-16 04:59
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	18	$15.3K	15,999	0	+15,999	open	—	07-20 13:23
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	72	$14.1K	15,356	0	+15,356	open	—	05-15 05:06
Iran leadership change by December 31?	15	$13.4K	6,239	10,345	-4,106	open	—	07-10 03:19
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	63	$13.2K	7,462	10,109	-2,647	open	—	06-17 15:31
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	25	$12.8K	13,981	0	+13,981	open	—	06-17 02:57
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	16	$12.6K	10,879	2,626	+8,253	open	—	07-10 05:28
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	2	$12.6K	12,643	0	+12,643	open	—	03-09 14:19
Will Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	12	$12.5K	6,281	6,281	+0	open	—	07-07 12:48
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	16	$12.3K	6,363	6,363	+0	open	—	07-15 16:38
will trump speak to friedrich merz in june	9	$12.3K	12,370	0	+12,370	open	—	06-16 08:59
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	18	$11.9K	12,098	0	+12,098	open	—	03-08 15:47
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	9	$10.4K	8,559	3,221	+5,337	open	—	07-20 17:09
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	68	$10.2K	10,919	0	+10,919	open	—	07-20 12:12
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	39	$10.0K	7,655	4,752	+2,903	open	—	07-17 19:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 19:52:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf712ee…
07-20 19:49:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1,137	100¢	$1,133	0x9c4cf4…
07-20 18:07:55	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	No	BUY	469	84¢	$394	0x3ca339…
07-20 17:59:24	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x38ca57…
07-20 17:42:52	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	569	94¢	$535	0xbbef94…
07-20 17:41:51	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	569	94¢	$535	0xb248b1…
07-20 17:19:49	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	51	92¢	$47	0x38cbcf…
07-20 17:18:09	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	569	92¢	$523	0x5206a8…
07-20 17:09:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	783	84¢	$657	0x12bd09…
07-20 17:04:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	4,902	37¢	$1,814	0x4eec29…
07-20 17:01:19	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	286	93¢	$266	0x414e91…
07-20 16:07:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	132	56¢	$74	0xe52d0f…
07-20 16:05:16	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	1,369	95¢	$1,301	0xe9efcb…
07-20 15:56:16	Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xc9bbad…
07-20 14:14:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 27 20260708212322952	No	BUY	41	63¢	$26	0x63840f…
07-20 13:46:07	Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xc5031d…
07-20 13:40:45	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	269	85¢	$229	0xa4461a…
07-20 13:35:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x2ea69b…
07-20 13:35:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	37	59¢	$22	0x133b72…
07-20 13:35:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	No	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0xdaa830…
07-20 13:31:01	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xeb811a…
07-20 13:30:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	69	60¢	$41	0xd20e73…
07-20 13:24:10	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x19979e…
07-20 13:23:46	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	BUY	50	87¢	$43	0xda6f7a…
07-20 13:23:00	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	4,327	95¢	$4,110	0x17b7ce…
07-20 13:19:21	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	BUY	345	86¢	$296	0x6f3333…
07-20 13:19:13	israel military action against yemen by july 21 20260714001321876	No	BUY	620	98¢	$610	0xb9e251…
07-20 13:18:34	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 17 2026 20260714210303207	No	BUY	298	100¢	$297	0xa3c7f4…
07-20 13:18:12	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	No	BUY	350	91¢	$318	0xeb5683…
07-20 13:12:16	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	BUY	169	98¢	$166	0xcc9512…
07-20 12:32:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	168	100¢	$168	0xb45b51…
07-20 12:28:24	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	2,369	95¢	$2,248	0x9332b0…
07-20 12:12:06	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,268	92¢	$2,098	0x186701…
07-20 11:59:31	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	7	65¢	$4	0x6b64b3…
07-20 11:59:30	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xe38159…
07-20 11:59:16	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	No	BUY	169	50¢	$84	0xfec16a…
07-20 11:51:36	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	82	68¢	$56	0xadffda…
07-20 11:50:45	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	469	73¢	$342	0x09d0b3…
07-20 11:49:52	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	469	75¢	$352	0x76795b…
07-20 11:47:07	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xa106a6…
07-20 11:44:24	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	185	66¢	$122	0x4e7088…
07-20 11:43:57	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	13	66¢	$9	0xa7a412…
07-20 11:42:19	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	569	89¢	$506	0x148c9a…
07-20 11:42:09	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	BUY	1,369	94¢	$1,287	0x480d43…
07-20 11:41:51	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	1,556	92¢	$1,432	0x4bdc25…
07-20 11:39:58	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	SELL	469	45¢	$209	0xe40678…
07-20 11:39:45	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	363	55¢	$200	0x69c1f4…
07-20 11:39:34	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	207	48¢	$99	0x5247a3…
07-20 11:39:00	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7a438e…
07-20 11:38:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 27 20260708212322952	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xbf8c63…
07-20 11:38:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 28 20260708212322953	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x9383b7…
07-20 11:38:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 28 20260708212322953	No	BUY	322	60¢	$194	0x6abb8c…
07-20 11:38:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x494d42…
07-20 11:38:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	BUY	54	62¢	$33	0xb1c7a6…
07-20 11:38:15	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	32	68¢	$22	0x16d7d5…
07-20 11:37:48	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	2,520	59¢	$1,487	0x38475e…
07-20 11:37:10	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	1,012	57¢	$577	0xffe492…
07-20 11:37:04	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	138	66¢	$91	0x01d67f…
07-20 11:36:42	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	1,095	64¢	$705	0xbf2a05…
07-20 11:36:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	3,273	98¢	$3,197	0xe0fb37…
07-20 11:36:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	3,050	98¢	$2,977	0x0171b8…
07-20 11:35:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 27 20260708212322952	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xef9c05…
07-20 11:35:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	No	BUY	341	61¢	$207	0x3dd150…
07-20 11:35:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0x536964…
07-20 11:35:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	No	BUY	67	56¢	$38	0x3b76f8…
07-20 10:22:16	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	BUY	469	98¢	$461	0xb5b5c6…
07-20 09:31:07	will the salvator mundi be publicly exhibited by december 31	No	BUY	115	89¢	$103	0x108ddb…
07-20 08:00:15	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	109	91¢	$99	0x5effc6…
07-20 07:55:48	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x09c525…
07-20 07:55:27	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x2ac87d…
07-20 07:53:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	4,369	97¢	$4,251	0xe81b4d…
07-20 07:41:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0xd88878…
07-20 07:40:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8db5ce…
07-20 07:35:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x52f843…
07-20 07:30:30	Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?	No	BUY	115	84¢	$97	0xdcce1c…
07-20 07:15:48	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	109	91¢	$99	0xe5b563…
07-20 07:05:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x21fdde…
07-20 06:56:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	617	100¢	$616	0x0427a4…
07-20 06:55:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,369	97¢	$2,303	0x45c069…
07-20 06:02:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	469	100¢	$467	0xbc5a2d…
07-20 05:02:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	575	100¢	$574	0xc47b80…
07-20 04:46:09	graham platner divorce by october 31 20260706220148808	No	BUY	462	87¢	$402	0x6bcd37…
07-20 04:27:01	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	569	95¢	$538	0x7217b7…
07-20 02:59:33	Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?	No	BUY	44	84¢	$37	0x188d64…
07-20 02:16:30	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	1,369	95¢	$1,295	0x515261…
07-20 02:09:54	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	272	90¢	$245	0x6b401f…
07-20 02:05:54	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	569	90¢	$513	0x0fbbfb…
07-20 02:02:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	277	97¢	$269	0x3d1208…
07-20 02:01:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	569	90¢	$513	0x544edb…
07-20 01:54:24	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	569	95¢	$538	0x93c5ab…
07-19 23:01:52	Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x1c1d1a…
07-19 19:39:57	Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xa94b67…
07-19 19:13:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x4c9623…
07-19 18:23:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	363	96¢	$347	0x71e173…
07-19 17:19:09	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 19 20260718000915872	No	BUY	469	98¢	$461	0x903553…
07-19 17:01:42	Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	38	60¢	$23	0x388755…
07-19 16:51:18	will trump meet with mohammed bin salman in july 2026 20260626153701908	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x3f9415…
07-19 16:50:00	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xfc76a9…
07-19 16:48:54	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xb8ca32…
07-19 16:47:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xf16f67…