Realized P&L
-$467
Unrealized P&L
-$235
Hit rate
64.2%
Resolved
175
Trades
79,511
lifetime
Volume
$2.12M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$27
Open exposure
$1.09K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
57% 42% +$741
Politics
18% 100% +$28
Sports
15% 25% $-415
Crypto
9% 23% $-821
Tech
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 359 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Yes -450 $-76 70¢ $-313 $-236 07-15 03:26
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +384 $244 68¢ $263 +$19 07-14 02:41
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Yes -300 $-63 22¢ $-67 $-4 07-20 19:30
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No +69 $52 78¢ $54 +$2 07-20 19:31
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Yes -324 $-69 16¢ $-50 +$18 07-18 09:18
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? No +165 $52 30¢ $50 $-2 07-17 00:32
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Yes -703 $-84 $-46 +$39 07-01 15:14
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Yes +101 $48 42¢ $43 $-6 07-03 12:41
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No -53 $-23 70¢ $-37 $-14 06-04 04:42
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -137 $-31 20¢ $-27 +$5 07-13 19:25
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No +28 $11 91¢ $25 +$14 06-12 17:02
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +19 $7 92¢ $18 +$10 06-01 14:37
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes -118 $-14 12¢ $-14 +$1 06-06 12:08
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +180 $18 $14 $-4 07-05 11:51
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes -64 $-13 20¢ $-13 +$0 07-07 08:35
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -189 $-23 $-12 +$11 07-15 06:10
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +262 $30 $11 $-19 05-29 11:12
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +136 $11 $10 $-1 07-14 19:15
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Yes -171 $-9 $-9 +$0 06-25 07:36
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +77 $13 11¢ $8 $-5 06-17 15:18
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +3 $2 80¢ $2 +$0 06-01 21:09
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? Yes +17 $1 $1 $-0 06-15 18:40
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +8 $2 11¢ $1 $-1 06-01 19:32
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Yes +25 $4 $1 $-3 06-29 11:13
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +5 $1 $0 $-0 06-21 17:35
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +4 $12 $0 $-12 06-08 17:29
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +0 $12 32¢ $0 $-12 06-24 23:35
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes +1 $-6 $0 +$6 06-11 12:37
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Yes +0 $41 11¢ $0 $-41 07-10 17:30
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Yes -0 $-0 16¢ $-0 $-0 07-05 03:07