Poor-Tavern — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$148

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

15.7%

Resolved

Trades

638

lifetime

Volume

$19.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-10 17:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

58% 100% +$2

Politics

35% 0% $-150

Tech

4% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$935	522	522	+0	open	—	02-16 08:53
GTA VI released before June 2026?	5	$494	250	250	+0	open	—	05-26 01:12
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	6	$403	60	351	-291	open	—	06-25 03:25
Netanyahu out by April 30?	7	$388	200	200	+0	open	—	04-24 00:53
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$368	200	200	+0	open	—	03-09 01:45
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	5	$340	350	0	+350	open	—	05-27 03:38
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	6	$337	570	0	+570	open	—	01-03 07:33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	10	$306	400	495	-95	open	—	02-28 20:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	2	$293	100	200	-100	open	—	06-25 01:33
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$277	0	280	-280	open	—	01-20 19:27
anyone charged for doxing delta force commander heading maduro grab by march 31	5	$239	130	130	+0	open	—	03-17 21:48
tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 15 2026 2pt92	5	$238	250	0	+250	open	—	01-08 14:14
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	3	$232	120	120	+0	open	—	07-30 16:43
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 15	2	$201	100	130	-30	open	—	01-15 02:58
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	01-27 01:14
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	3	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	01-27 01:14
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$195	200	0	+200	open	—	01-20 19:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	04-24 00:53
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$192	98	98	+0	open	—	05-27 03:35
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147	2	$189	100	100	+0	open	—	01-29 04:05
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	2	$188	0	190	-190	open	—	06-11 01:47
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	1	$186	200	0	+200	open	—	01-20 19:37
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$185	70	120	-50	open	—	06-25 04:14
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$178	40	140	-100	open	—	06-13 01:04
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	3	$177	40	140	-100	open	—	06-16 03:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$176	100	100	+0	open	—	01-27 01:14
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	2	$166	0	176	-176	open	—	06-25 04:16
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$159	0	160	-160	open	—	06-11 01:29
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by february 28 2026	3	$157	100	100	+0	open	—	02-28 15:50
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	3	$149	0	152	-152	open	—	06-16 03:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 17:44:24	will russia capture lyman by september 30 2026	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xbc4bf2…
08-10 17:44:24	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x832f82…
08-10 02:19:58	will iran target a arab country on august 9 2026 20260801004719126	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xbcb034…
08-09 03:31:52	will iran target a arab country on august 7 2026 20260801004719124	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xfa7b2e…
08-08 13:47:07	will iran target a arab country on august 23 2026 20260801004719140	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x631d66…
08-08 04:40:30	will iran target a arab country on august 6 2026 20260801004719123	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xce5371…
08-08 04:40:07	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xae561b…
08-08 04:39:45	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xad1f2c…
08-08 03:48:13	will trump pardon sbf by december 31	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x2220c3…
08-07 14:50:39	will iran target a arab country on august 4 2026 20260801004719121	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x961fad…
08-07 13:29:43	will iran target a arab country on august 27 2026 20260801004719144	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x7edd19…
08-07 06:31:04	will iran target a arab country on august 31 2026 20260801004719148	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xcf5734…
08-07 06:31:00	will iran target a arab country on august 28 2026 20260801004719145	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x945ec5…
08-07 06:30:52	will iran target a arab country on august 27 2026 20260801004719144	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xe41420…
08-07 06:30:48	will iran target a arab country on august 26 2026 20260801004719143	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xd6a0f8…
08-07 06:30:45	will iran target a arab country on august 25 2026 20260801004719142	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x72fcec…
08-07 06:30:40	will iran target a arab country on august 23 2026 20260801004719140	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x1dcd4e…
08-07 06:30:36	will iran target a arab country on august 22 2026 20260801004719139	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x24f7e2…
08-07 06:30:33	will iran target a arab country on august 20 2026 20260801004719137	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xf1aa56…
08-07 06:30:28	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x871bd2…
08-07 06:30:24	will iran target a arab country on august 16 2026 20260801004719133	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x71a3f5…
08-07 06:30:19	will iran target a arab country on august 15 2026 20260801004719132	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x886ac1…
08-07 06:30:12	will iran target a arab country on august 9 2026 20260801004719126	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x7a3195…
08-07 06:30:06	will iran target a arab country on august 7 2026 20260801004719124	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xd7d752…
08-07 06:29:55	will iran target a arab country on august 5 2026 20260801004719122	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xcca226…
08-07 05:51:06	Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x713ab1…
08-05 05:20:41	will iran target a arab country on august 5 2026 20260801004719122	No	BUY	11	94¢	$11	0x56e6ca…
08-05 05:00:41	will iran target a arab country on august 6 2026 20260801004719123	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xb79b05…
08-05 05:00:36	will iran target a arab country on august 5 2026 20260801004719122	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x880b36…
08-05 05:00:35	will iran target a arab country on august 4 2026 20260801004719121	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4d4752…
08-03 11:35:02	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x2313a2…
08-03 10:03:35	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xe7fd09…
08-03 07:32:53	Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	28	77¢	$22	0x0bd5dd…
08-02 10:19:06	Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xd76c58…
08-02 01:36:15	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xa487be…
08-02 01:14:35	mlb nyy chc 2026 08 01	New York Yankees	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xbc785b…
08-02 01:11:59	will andurils valuation hit low 80b by august 31 20260730183401562	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x5e6208…
08-02 01:10:18	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x06822d…
08-02 01:10:15	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x362d7f…
08-02 01:09:50	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x61e554…
08-02 01:09:33	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xd15f38…
08-02 01:09:33	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x4fc308…
08-01 03:19:32	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	25	41¢	$10	0x003b91…
08-01 02:02:56	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	9	39¢	$4	0x9d4bb1…
07-31 16:16:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x286a59…
07-31 16:01:41	will the grand theft auto vi ps5 launch price be at least 60 20260618224014044	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$17	0x9050b1…
07-31 14:48:11	Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?	Yes	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0x6deba0…
07-31 05:37:50	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x544fb5…
07-30 20:03:35	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xed0980…
07-30 17:14:11	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0x4d442c…
07-30 16:54:44	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x41ad75…
07-30 16:52:44	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x5b408e…
07-30 16:43:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x819777…
07-30 16:43:12	will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xef43ee…
07-30 07:58:54	Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xd60f50…
07-24 01:25:18	Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf715f7…
07-21 19:02:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x6cc093…
07-16 05:08:31	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x03e169…
07-16 05:00:04	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x58411b…
07-16 04:21:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xae9c70…
07-16 04:02:05	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xebdd2b…
07-16 03:32:32	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x33e7c2…
07-16 03:32:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x569a87…
07-14 17:34:29	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xe0a470…
07-13 03:47:53	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x1f56a3…
07-13 03:44:38	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7e00b1…
07-13 03:44:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x563363…
07-11 14:11:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x82f5f0…
07-09 21:21:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xec41cc…
07-09 05:32:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xe8fab0…
07-09 05:32:07	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xc7faf2…
07-07 15:37:41	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x0a0bd2…
07-07 02:02:41	atp lehecka zverev 2026 07 06	Alexander Zverev	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xe03236…
07-06 06:33:23	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x376f7b…
07-06 04:05:49	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xa98f7e…
07-05 11:44:40	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x125f58…
07-04 23:05:02	will russia capture sofiivka by december 31	No	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0xb828de…
07-04 04:08:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3be726…
07-04 03:17:49	Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x8e012c…
07-04 03:16:55	will anthropic ipo by september 15 2026 415	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xe3cc52…
07-04 02:54:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0xa619e8…
07-04 02:53:59	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x03f3ec…
07-04 02:48:32	over 90m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xff4843…
07-04 01:49:50	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7adf04…
07-04 00:29:40	over 100m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x597b62…
07-04 00:29:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xfe5fad…
07-04 00:29:11	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x77575c…
07-04 00:28:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xeed00b…
07-04 00:28:05	RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x34795d…
07-03 01:53:16	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x620d78…
07-02 22:55:58	will russia capture sofiivka by december 31	No	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x8325da…
07-02 22:44:25	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x98f2a7…
07-02 22:29:11	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x496013…
07-02 22:29:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$25	0x301ea3…
07-02 22:28:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x9a61e0…
07-02 22:28:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x001db1…
07-02 22:27:14	over 90m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x1444c5…
07-02 22:27:05	over 100m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6c861f…
07-02 22:24:59	Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x4a9546…
07-02 22:24:34	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x79b203…