Far-Flung-Transom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$188

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.9%

Resolved

Trades

574

lifetime

Volume

$63.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$111

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 16:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$51

Politics

49% 80% +$137

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	13	$1.8K	2,320	0	+2,320	open	—	02-28 20:10
will khamenei leave iran by friday	4	$1.2K	1,223	0	+1,223	open	—	01-09 03:35
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$1.2K	1,255	0	+1,255	open	—	01-10 00:58
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	8	$1.1K	897	1,047	-150	open	—	02-01 01:02
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	6	$1.1K	1,240	0	+1,240	open	—	01-10 00:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran in 2025	1	$997	0	1,000	-1,000	open	—	01-01 01:07
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	7	$865	935	0	+935	open	—	01-14 20:31
Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?	2	$850	885	0	+885	open	—	03-15 03:03
us strike on colombia by march 31	5	$838	892	0	+892	open	—	03-10 03:06
US military draft authorized in 2026?	4	$801	879	0	+879	open	—	06-26 04:25
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	3	$743	760	0	+760	open	—	01-01 09:00
Will André Carson be the Democratic nominee for IN-07?	2	$730	777	0	+777	Yes	+$47	04-22 22:46
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	7	$729	816	0	+816	open	—	02-07 19:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$700	718	0	+718	open	—	05-09 02:29
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?	7	$696	797	0	+797	open	—	04-15 05:28
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	3	$666	706	0	+706	Yes	+$39	03-31 22:30
Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?	1	$650	685	0	+685	open	—	03-05 17:32
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	2	$604	305	305	+0	open	—	07-21 18:16
Will Nikema Williams be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?	1	$600	696	0	+696	open	—	03-24 05:12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$600	611	0	+611	open	—	04-11 15:16
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	4	$587	658	0	+658	open	—	04-24 21:02
ukraine calls a referendum on peace deal with russia by january 31	3	$585	608	0	+608	open	—	01-25 03:11
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?	2	$579	701	0	+701	open	—	03-03 20:55
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	2	$579	309	309	+0	open	—	06-14 02:14
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	3	$550	567	0	+567	open	—	02-28 16:45
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$550	558	0	+558	open	—	02-09 00:49
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	3	$530	587	0	+587	Yes	+$57	04-11 15:03
another critical cloudflare incident by january 31	3	$529	452	184	+268	open	—	01-06 17:32
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	3	$515	561	0	+561	open	—	02-28 20:15
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	3	$500	481	500	-19	open	—	06-16 01:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 16:13:33	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xc93213…
08-10 16:13:19	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	89	95¢	$85	0x83002c…
08-09 15:52:33	Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	BUY	128	98¢	$125	0xb2e9b5…
08-09 15:49:25	will donald trump publicly insult kevin warsh by august 31 2026 20260730161742269	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xb1807a…
08-09 15:48:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x76dfd4…
08-08 17:15:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x688d60…
08-08 15:35:36	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by august 31 2026 20260730161742264	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x7a4ff6…
08-06 16:39:32	will donald trump publicly insult friedrich merz by august 31 2026 20260730161742265	No	BUY	91	88¢	$80	0x97ff09…
08-06 16:20:24	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	136	92¢	$125	0x91e32f…
08-06 16:11:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0x53e2ce…
08-06 04:11:29	Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	161	93¢	$150	0x273a6d…
08-06 03:46:27	Obama arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xffa0aa…
08-06 03:46:05	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x55471f…
08-06 03:40:32	nothing ever happens august 20260731190455728	Nothing	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xc60273…
08-06 03:39:32	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in august 20260731154203531	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x1be31d…
08-06 03:19:56	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	131	95¢	$125	0x3896b6…
08-06 03:18:24	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x3ed927…
08-06 03:17:03	NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	BUY	133	94¢	$125	0x2dcb52…
08-06 03:06:14	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xed8653…
08-06 03:05:50	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x4b72dd…
08-06 02:58:36	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x408899…
08-05 22:30:36	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	85	94¢	$80	0x894e43…
08-01 13:21:15	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0x4778e5…
07-26 20:17:15	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	102	88¢	$90	0xe57fd7…
07-26 20:13:27	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by september 30 2026 20260709234123317	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x041940…
07-23 06:10:33	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	81¢	$48	0x743fe0…
07-21 18:16:43	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	305	99¢	$304	0xbdfbbb…
07-20 20:02:34	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by august 31 20260720003950635	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xa4553a…
07-20 20:01:19	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xf73b1c…
07-17 00:50:02	will trump accuse mexico of election interference by july 16 20260714013930800	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xf0914e…
07-16 18:05:29	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x76c1cf…
07-14 23:52:52	graham platner divorce by october 31 20260706220148808	No	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0xcabd02…
07-14 15:48:34	will kuwait recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x626ed2…
07-14 15:47:41	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	80	77¢	$61	0xe1a177…
07-14 15:47:05	will kuwait recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	175	93¢	$163	0xac5b40…
07-14 15:19:20	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0x966d17…
07-14 15:16:14	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	No	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x386847…
07-14 03:28:38	will russia enter krasnopillya by july 31	No	BUY	205	98¢	$200	0x1524ca…
07-14 03:25:31	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x8e7d44…
07-13 11:44:52	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	No	SELL	106	70¢	$74	0xb40780…
07-12 20:52:07	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xee3c95…
07-09 04:27:32	will donald trump publicly insult friedrich merz by july 31 2026 20260626210612732	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xded603…
07-09 04:26:08	will donald trump publicly insult friedrich merz by july 31 2026 20260626210612732	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x957593…
07-08 21:16:35	graham platner divorce by october 31 20260706220148808	No	BUY	160	94¢	$150	0x1f1a0e…
07-08 21:15:50	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	154	97¢	$150	0x140a02…
07-08 21:11:40	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	85	76¢	$65	0x6d7181…
07-08 21:09:16	Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	242	91¢	$220	0x129fad…
07-08 21:01:44	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x019fc4…
07-08 16:20:44	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x6bb546…
07-08 16:18:49	will trump speak to mojtaba khamenei in july 20260626154217442	No	BUY	126	99¢	$125	0x8658a7…
07-08 16:18:29	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in july 20260626154217441	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xa6e436…
07-08 02:14:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	170	88¢	$150	0x5a11e4…
07-07 21:10:02	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xc0a371…
07-07 01:37:17	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	BUY	239	84¢	$200	0x6ea628…
07-06 23:02:43	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396	No	SELL	215	2¢	$4	0x34d724…
07-05 02:12:10	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x6b10a7…
07-05 02:10:28	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xce0135…
07-04 20:39:13	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	305	98¢	$300	0xccb642…
07-04 15:44:43	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x0184ae…
07-04 01:16:55	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	166	96¢	$160	0x171bb7…
07-03 22:50:08	will iran recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0xd532ea…
07-03 22:48:43	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0xd3ef96…
07-03 15:32:31	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x95486e…
07-03 15:31:32	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	85	88¢	$75	0x269f9e…
07-03 15:29:11	will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x0604ed…
07-03 15:28:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xa53bd5…
07-03 15:09:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	350	89¢	$312	0x67d0bd…
07-02 06:19:13	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x1da1a5…
07-02 05:01:26	will donald trump publicly insult friedrich merz by july 31 2026 20260626210612732	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0xe1f37e…
07-01 19:55:55	untitled market 1 20260629183534861	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xa126d3…
07-01 03:07:32	Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?	No	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x2f7c44…
06-28 18:38:10	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	BUY	48	84¢	$40	0x06a2e3…
06-28 16:15:56	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x2c4538…
06-28 02:01:59	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x5aeafd…
06-28 02:01:40	Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?	No	BUY	66	75¢	$50	0xc61f7d…
06-28 00:07:43	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0x701855…
06-26 04:35:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x8ee302…
06-26 04:25:59	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xcd8ea1…
06-25 21:35:47	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	275	93¢	$256	0xc603c3…
06-25 21:31:34	will russia enter stavky by june 30	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x9095d8…
06-24 19:24:11	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	425	93¢	$395	0x4f0a0d…
06-22 19:34:08	Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0xb29bf0…
06-22 15:57:04	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	No	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0x36c699…
06-19 04:39:34	will russia enter borova by june 30	No	BUY	65	93¢	$60	0x826ab4…
06-17 20:48:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xb933c7…
06-17 17:38:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xfc0a6c…
06-17 04:43:31	will donald trump publicly insult keir starmer by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xe8fb85…
06-16 01:33:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	93	43¢	$40	0x751771…
06-14 23:06:31	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x41d09a…
06-14 23:01:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0xcb2b25…
06-14 22:48:25	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	No	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0xa67677…
06-14 22:39:09	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by june 30 2026	No	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x384d2d…
06-14 22:37:43	will donald trump publicly insult keir starmer by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xeb6057…
06-14 22:28:22	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by june 30	No	BUY	83	97¢	$80	0x09b429…
06-14 22:24:06	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	SELL	136	42¢	$57	0x196099…
06-14 22:17:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	54	24¢	$13	0x9cf197…
06-14 18:43:57	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xc5990f…
06-14 18:43:39	will russia capture kindrativka by june 30	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x53c278…
06-14 18:31:16	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	388	58¢	$225	0x971a4f…
06-14 03:10:07	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	430	64¢	$275	0xe9c6bb…