Realized P&L
-$4.80K
Unrealized P&L
+$5
Hit rate
45.6%
Resolved
612
Trades
87,600
lifetime
Volume
$1.46M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$2.53K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 12:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Other
70% 35% $-4,279
Politics
21% 34% $-259
Sports
5% 60% $-31
Tech
3% 0% $-102
Crypto
1% 0% $-55
Pop-Culture
1% 0% $-74
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 702 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No +202 $186 97¢ $195 +$9 06-28 17:01
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes +203 $154 71¢ $144 $-10 07-18 06:22
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +189 $154 68¢ $128 $-26 06-25 15:32
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes +140 $112 80¢ $113 +$1 07-10 09:25
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited? No +117 $96 88¢ $103 +$7 06-17 01:18
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No -108 $-95 94¢ $-102 $-6 06-07 21:28
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +106 $96 90¢ $95 $-1 06-05 23:12
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government? No +94 $91 99¢ $93 +$2 06-24 19:00
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +95 $80 95¢ $90 +$10 06-23 17:56
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic -101 $-68 86¢ $-86 $-19 06-16 14:31
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes +118 $90 69¢ $81 $-9 06-25 06:54
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No -98 $-59 82¢ $-80 $-21 06-03 20:12
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +93 $77 86¢ $80 +$2 07-18 17:00
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No +86 $71 92¢ $79 +$9 06-25 06:25
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +84 $74 91¢ $77 +$3 07-18 11:42
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +101 $82 75¢ $76 $-6 07-17 10:56
Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No +87 $56 84¢ $74 +$18 06-30 20:49
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +109 $66 68¢ $73 +$8 07-19 23:55
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +81 $59 88¢ $72 +$13 07-09 15:41
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +110 $45 63¢ $69 +$25 07-09 15:42
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +78 $57 89¢ $69 +$12 07-06 19:17
QFEX FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +80 $59 86¢ $69 +$10 07-05 06:31
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes +73 $64 92¢ $67 +$3 06-03 13:04
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +72 $64 90¢ $65 +$1 06-23 20:59
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? No +69 $57 94¢ $65 +$8 07-15 22:47
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes +293 $90 20¢ $59 $-31 06-21 04:50
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No -83 $-51 70¢ $-58 $-7 07-19 15:25
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No +68 $55 85¢ $58 +$3 07-15 23:14
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +72 $44 80¢ $58 +$14 07-19 21:58
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +101 $67 54¢ $55 $-12 06-22 12:33