Realized P&L (24h)
-$311
Unrealized P&L
+$1.20K
Hit rate
49.6%
Resolved (24h)
139
Trades (24h)
492
306,142 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$9.85K
$3.88M lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$5.88K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-09 19:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 313 days
Categories
Other
77% 39% -$173,146
Politics
16% 39% -$26,926
Sports
3% 38% -$6,602
Tech
3% 35% -$4,844
Crypto
1% 36% -$1,399
Pop-Culture
1% 35% -$1,937
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1962 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +383 $165 97¢ $373 +$207 11-05 21:26
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026? Yes +393 $236 79¢ $311 +$75 11-09 08:43
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? Yes +301 $238 89¢ $268 +$30 11-09 14:29
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes +281 $175 88¢ $249 +$75 10-31 09:16
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +358 $201 64¢ $231 +$30 11-06 05:26
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes +246 $133 92¢ $226 +$93 10-31 22:15
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes +239 $185 93¢ $223 +$38 11-09 09:13
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government? Yes +267 $129 82¢ $218 +$88 11-08 00:36
Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? Yes +249 $134 82¢ $204 +$70 11-04 11:07
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +309 $216 64¢ $199 -$16 11-09 14:29
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? No +290 $211 68¢ $195 -$16 11-09 12:18
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? Yes +294 $148 66¢ $194 +$46 11-09 15:04
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +207 $100 90¢ $187 +$87 10-26 00:18
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No +198 $116 94¢ $185 +$69 10-13 21:34
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +285 $154 64¢ $184 +$30 11-09 15:04
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No +204 $165 90¢ $184 +$18 06-14 17:08
Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026? No +261 $172 68¢ $178 +$6 11-08 08:39
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +240 $158 72¢ $172 +$13 07-17 09:14
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 Yes +175 $122 97¢ $169 +$47 06-20 16:47
Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026? Yes +174 $146 97¢ $168 +$22 10-23 18:13
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +253 $186 66¢ $167 -$18 11-08 11:25
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +176 $151 92¢ $163 +$11 05-14 11:10
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +221 $151 72¢ $160 +$9 11-08 03:05
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? No +160 $104 98¢ $156 +$52 11-09 19:54
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? No +176 $69 88¢ $156 +$87 10-08 03:45
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30? No +176 $126 88¢ $154 +$28 11-03 07:00
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +219 $134 70¢ $154 +$20 10-31 22:31
Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026? No +218 $188 70¢ $151 -$36 11-09 13:38
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? No +152 $124 99¢ $150 +$26 10-31 18:28
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +222 $144 68¢ $150 +$7 11-08 11:25