Realized P&L (7d)
-$2.74K
Unrealized P&L
+$970
Hit rate
42.3%
Resolved (7d)
780
Trades (7d)
4,981
298,414 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$81.9K
$3.75M lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$4.43K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 19:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 301 days
Categories
Other
77% 39% -$166,243
Politics
15% 38% -$25,659
Sports
3% 39% -$6,337
Tech
3% 35% -$4,608
Crypto
1% 36% -$1,327
Pop-Culture
1% 35% -$1,721
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1971 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes +246 $190 96¢ $235 +$46 10-27 12:57
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +269 $164 84¢ $225 +$61 10-28 16:02
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +223 $85 98¢ $218 +$133 10-04 02:01
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +224 $137 97¢ $217 +$81 10-28 08:12
will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650 Yes +327 $257 64¢ $211 -$47 10-23 07:31
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +198 $146 95¢ $188 +$42 10-27 19:49
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No +198 $116 92¢ $183 +$67 10-13 21:34
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No +204 $165 90¢ $183 +$17 06-14 17:08
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +240 $82 70¢ $167 +$85 10-13 21:32
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +168 $104 99¢ $166 +$62 09-29 18:08
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 Yes +175 $122 94¢ $165 +$43 06-20 16:47
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes +163 $89 99¢ $161 +$72 10-10 20:29
will the highest score achieved on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190142923 No +254 $117 58¢ $149 +$32 10-27 01:19
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +272 $113 54¢ $146 +$32 10-27 08:49
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +170 $118 81¢ $138 +$19 09-04 15:12
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +294 $177 46¢ $137 -$40 10-28 13:53
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +147 $93 84¢ $124 +$31 10-26 02:27
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes +222 $119 56¢ $124 +$5 10-27 21:03
us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223 No +138 $119 84¢ $117 -$2 07-26 11:22
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No -118 -$112 98¢ $-116 -$5 10-22 13:00
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes +150 $135 77¢ $115 -$20 10-15 08:29
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +111 $68 98¢ $109 +$41 09-24 02:20
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? No +170 $85 64¢ $108 +$23 10-28 16:07
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +127 $83 84¢ $106 +$23 10-19 15:46
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No +109 $46 97¢ $106 +$60 10-04 15:37
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +131 $87 80¢ $105 +$19 10-08 16:38
will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636 No +123 $55 86¢ $105 +$51 06-25 11:29
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +131 $89 79¢ $103 +$14 10-20 16:15
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No +136 $81 76¢ $103 +$23 10-28 08:19
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +207 $100 50¢ $102 +$2 10-26 00:18