Last-Instance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

249

lifetime

Volume

$32.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$132

Open exposure

$214

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-19 08:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

41% 100% +$2

Crypto

31% 100% +$0

Politics

26% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+200	$187	96¢	$192	+$6	06-18 15:34
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	+170	$12	5¢	$8	$-3	06-18 14:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+200	$12	4¢	$8	$-5	06-28 12:59
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	+6	$5	97¢	$5	$-0	07-08 13:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	7	$2.8K	1,386	1,386	+0	open	—	01-20 05:17
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	9	$2.3K	1,166	1,166	+0	open	—	01-11 12:16
trump out as president by march 31	12	$1.9K	995	995	+0	open	—	03-03 16:57
will ethereum dip to 1000 in february 2026	5	$1.9K	940	940	+0	open	—	02-05 02:29
will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	15	$1.8K	923	923	+0	open	—	01-09 13:12
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$1.4K	930	465	+465	open	—	01-25 12:08
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	4	$1.3K	655	655	+0	open	—	01-03 06:53
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	11	$1.2K	699	507	+192	open	—	04-26 04:39
will the us next strike iran on february 8 2026 et	2	$943	472	472	+0	open	—	02-09 13:41
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	3	$939	472	472	+0	open	—	02-04 05:08
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	2	$935	469	469	+0	open	—	02-03 05:12
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	6	$926	478	478	+0	open	—	01-20 08:27
will ethereum dip to 1000 in january 2026 651	2	$917	460	460	+0	open	—	01-07 13:36
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	2	$916	462	462	+0	open	—	01-12 08:17
will edgex launch a token in 2025	2	$915	458	458	+0	open	—	01-02 03:19
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$733	371	371	+0	open	—	04-21 12:06
will a minecraft movie be the top grossing movie of 2025	4	$631	477	155	+322	open	—	01-04 02:46
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	15	$551	290	290	+0	Yes	+$2	03-29 22:34
will the us next strike iran on february 9 2026 et	1	$472	472	0	+472	open	—	02-12 03:47
will deepseek run an ad during super bowl lx	1	$466	469	0	+469	open	—	02-08 17:53
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?	2	$462	462	0	+462	open	—	01-11 00:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	3	$386	196	196	+0	open	—	05-09 00:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	4	$368	186	186	+0	open	—	04-15 03:44
Netanyahu out by April 30?	6	$366	185	185	+0	open	—	04-10 04:23
will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	4	$356	179	179	+0	open	—	03-23 14:03
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	2	$350	200	200	+0	open	—	04-25 11:50
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$346	179	179	+0	open	—	02-17 17:33
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	2	$343	172	172	+0	open	—	02-12 17:18
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	2	$343	172	172	+0	open	—	02-19 10:13
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$342	172	172	+0	open	—	02-13 06:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 08:49:36	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc2bdb5…
07-08 13:36:53	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x1e6636…
07-01 14:13:17	will wti dip to 45 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4c8c44…
06-28 12:59:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x27d980…
06-22 12:39:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x3102b9…
06-18 15:34:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$187	0x1206d1…
06-18 14:15:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	170	7¢	$12	0x85e799…
06-12 08:24:03	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x24c911…
06-10 01:21:43	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x6067f0…
06-08 20:01:07	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaa4c28…
06-06 02:49:25	will stephanie vargas advance from the ca 33 primary election	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x509a16…
06-06 02:48:51	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x01128b…
06-06 02:48:12	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x43313c…
05-31 20:01:15	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x2bd42f…
05-31 04:03:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xef1cd6…
05-25 11:32:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbb790c…
05-23 13:27:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xa323a5…
05-16 03:06:43	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xc2029a…
05-11 04:59:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x09082d…
05-11 03:24:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	124	97¢	$120	0x3c8cb0…
05-10 12:42:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x93bb9a…
05-09 00:39:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	196	99¢	$194	0x48068d…
05-04 21:18:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	161	98¢	$157	0xe77da5…
05-04 10:35:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x90a5be…
04-26 04:39:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	192	100¢	$191	0xa77068…
04-25 11:50:58	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x28164c…
04-25 02:35:30	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xca09d7…
04-25 02:23:08	will trump wear a yellow tie today	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2b319c…
04-21 15:27:50	will trump say cheat or cheated or cheating or cheater during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x809928…
04-21 15:27:48	will trump say sweet or crude during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x5619c2…
04-21 15:27:32	will trump say aircraft carrier during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x09bec9…
04-21 15:27:20	will trump say largest inflation or worst inflation during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x745562…
04-21 12:06:04	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	189	99¢	$188	0x036228…
04-21 11:10:14	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	189	99¢	$187	0x6cedae…
04-20 14:10:14	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	Yes	SELL	27	11¢	$3	0x4058d7…
04-20 12:10:14	will bleed out be said during the cs iem rio 2026 grand final	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xc2cb5d…
04-20 11:48:54	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x27db02…
04-20 11:48:02	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	Yes	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x0a952a…
04-20 11:47:58	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	Yes	BUY	34	13¢	$4	0x4225df…
04-20 11:45:52	will bleed out be said during the cs iem rio 2026 grand final	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0f0cfa…
04-20 11:45:38	will bleed out be said during the cs iem rio 2026 grand final	No	BUY	165	100¢	$164	0xcecfcc…
04-20 11:45:08	will bleed out be said during the cs iem rio 2026 grand final	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x856b0a…
04-19 15:52:00	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	150	99¢	$149	0x2000da…
04-19 11:30:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x0f3f41…
04-19 03:50:14	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x859da1…
04-19 01:52:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xd29654…
04-18 04:41:54	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x790bfd…
04-17 18:54:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0x61bdc5…
04-17 01:58:26	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$76	0xff966c…
04-17 01:23:20	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0x5a9309…
04-15 04:14:24	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xf776e2…
04-15 03:51:34	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x2cae42…
04-15 03:44:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xb5cdb8…
04-15 03:42:48	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	150	99¢	$149	0x1ccdc9…
04-15 00:09:20	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	170	99¢	$168	0x39220f…
04-14 00:25:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	170	99¢	$168	0xca389f…
04-12 14:30:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xb41344…
04-12 13:01:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0xa2ad6b…
04-12 02:10:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	170	99¢	$168	0x095da4…
04-11 13:52:33	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x4a551e…
04-10 04:23:53	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0xebc24e…
04-10 04:23:49	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$110	0x5add04…
04-07 07:46:09	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$115	0x47f1fe…
04-07 07:42:13	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x076ce2…
04-07 07:41:27	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x4a99bf…
04-07 07:24:51	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5b31f9…
04-06 13:50:21	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	182	99¢	$180	0xbebbd5…
04-05 12:01:07	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	182	98¢	$178	0xfe09f9…
03-30 02:37:24	will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xa1a9bf…
03-29 22:34:44	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xc8151b…
03-29 21:51:58	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	105	96¢	$101	0x03904f…
03-29 21:15:54	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xde08fe…
03-29 13:00:44	maduro exiled to russia by march 31	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x67ab10…
03-29 13:00:20	will bnb dip to 400 in march	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x503236…
03-27 14:17:37	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0xb16257…
03-26 13:54:47	will bnb dip to 400 in march	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xc967e9…
03-26 13:54:23	Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x05e98a…
03-26 13:53:53	AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x39d353…
03-26 13:52:59	will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	No	BUY	11	99¢	$10	0x5f440f…
03-26 13:52:33	will trump talk to yoon suk yeol in march 483	No	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0xac3b56…
03-26 13:52:05	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc5b878…
03-25 13:04:01	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 25 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	181	99¢	$180	0xe080b0…
03-23 14:03:35	will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	No	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0xa19689…
03-23 13:23:13	will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xc90735…
03-21 06:04:49	will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0xacd0f7…
03-21 05:55:53	will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	No	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x636708…
03-20 04:14:39	will trump say friend of mine during events with japanese pm	No	BUY	79	99¢	$78	0x7d701a…
03-20 04:14:03	will trump say kim or korea during events with japanese pm	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xb0cb10…
03-16 12:32:57	will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x230b69…
03-16 12:32:47	will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	No	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0x2e4b1e…
03-16 12:32:33	will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	No	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0x21b015…
03-16 12:00:23	will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xb2d473…
03-16 11:37:51	will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x747fec…
03-16 10:41:49	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xe797a7…
03-15 14:46:33	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xb8bcd1…
03-15 14:36:07	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x7ef132…
03-14 16:42:07	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x8300b7…
03-14 16:35:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x5a2a03…
03-14 16:17:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0x986157…
03-14 16:14:43	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe3c72f…