Embarrassed-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

50.6%

Resolved

Trades

134

lifetime

Volume

$872

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$84

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 10-26 18:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

54% 20% +$59

Tech

18% 40% -$1

Sports

15% 0% -$36

Politics

13% 29% +$1

Crypto

1% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+2,127	$51	2¢	$52	+$1	06-16 02:47
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+3,702	$37	1¢	$28	-$9	07-08 05:03
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+11	$2	17¢	$2	$0	08-31 22:52
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	+36	$4	5¢	$2	-$2	07-16 15:00
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+28	$8	1¢	$0	-$8	05-17 20:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	9	$188	197	197	+0	Yes	+$125	05-18 23:21
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$65	1,391	1,180	+211	No	-$6	07-03 20:20
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?	2	$56	36	36	+0	Yes	+$16	04-15 18:54
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	2	$55	50	50	+0	open	—	10-26 18:40
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$51	2,127	0	+2,127	open	—	06-16 02:47
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	3	$37	3,702	0	+3,702	open	—	07-08 05:03
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$28	1,035	235	+800	No	-$12	06-26 00:21
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	4	$26	1,555	5,260	-3,706	No	-$6	05-20 21:08
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	2	$23	143	143	+0	Yes	+$3	05-23 17:23
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	1	$20	0	25	-25	Yes	-$5	06-15 23:46
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$18	85	64	+21	No	-$2	06-18 07:51
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	2	$18	32	32	+0	open	—	06-02 20:23
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	4	$17	51	73	-22	No	-$17	05-20 21:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$17	11	11	+0	No	+$5	07-08 01:14
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$13	220	0	+220	No	-$13	06-18 05:07
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	2	$11	33	33	+0	open	—	09-12 07:32
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	1	$10	82	0	+82	Yes	-$10	05-18 22:16
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	1	$10	13	0	+13	No	+$3	06-12 03:36
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	2	$9	7	7	+0	Yes	+$5	07-01 21:35
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	1	$8	28	0	+28	open	—	05-17 20:28
Will Xtreme Gaming Win The International 2026?	2	$7	184	184	+0	No	-$7	08-15 11:26
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	1	$7	36	0	+36	No	-$7	09-12 07:33
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	1	$7	20	0	+20	Yes	+$13	05-19 23:31
Will Team Yandex Win The International 2026?	1	$6	67	0	+67	No	-$6	08-22 23:53
will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	2	$6	22	22	+0	No	-$1	06-12 03:34
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	1	$6	19	0	+19	No	-$6	09-12 07:32
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?	1	$6	9	0	+9	No	-$6	04-18 13:38
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	1	$6	17	0	+17	Yes	-$6	05-28 13:06
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$5	59	59	+0	No	+$1	07-03 07:50
will deepseek have the best ai model for math on march 31	3	$5	1,086	0	+1,086	No	-$5	03-27 18:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 18:40:23	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x18ce40…
09-12 07:33:10	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	19¢	$7	0xdab0e5…
09-12 07:32:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	Yes	SELL	33	24¢	$8	0x3b328d…
09-12 07:32:04	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x0da790…
08-31 22:52:54	Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xea72f6…
08-28 06:40:34	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0xac8b2e…
08-22 23:54:13	Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	28¢	$3	0x2eb6ba…
08-22 23:53:34	Will Team Yandex Win The International 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	10¢	$6	0x9b805e…
08-15 11:26:04	Will Xtreme Gaming Win The International 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	0¢	$0	0xa54b6f…
08-15 11:25:52	Will Team Resilience Win The International 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0xd6511d…
08-13 04:01:42	Will Xtreme Gaming Win The International 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	4¢	$7	0x56d369…
08-13 04:00:16	dota2 ty huliga 2026 08 13	HULIGANI	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x618a2c…
08-13 04:00:06	dota2 aur1 gl 2026 08 13	GamerLegion	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0xde016b…
08-04 16:16:56	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x8c9ef5…
07-21 20:39:52	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0xc0c081…
07-16 15:00:29	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0xf65e80…
07-08 05:08:26	grok 4pt4 released by july 17 148	No	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0xa342d9…
07-08 05:03:53	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2,222	1¢	$20	0xd12e81…
07-08 01:14:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0x800cf7…
07-06 22:25:46	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0x58cbd0…
07-03 20:20:37	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x64e8cb…
07-03 20:20:08	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	211	2¢	$4	0x431088…
07-03 07:50:41	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	59	6¢	$3	0xd5ca59…
07-01 21:35:26	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x78c281…
06-27 00:55:58	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,180	2¢	$29	0xce8832…
06-26 00:21:49	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xeff8b2…
06-23 01:40:05	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$12	0x8ab38a…
06-23 01:06:38	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xc04beb…
06-21 23:27:25	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x2b18d8…
06-21 12:41:14	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$4	0xe40af5…
06-21 12:40:23	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0x31c3fa…
06-21 09:37:13	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	118	3¢	$3	0x977776…
06-21 09:37:13	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	118	4¢	$5	0x44ef32…
06-19 14:36:26	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x8d2e44…
06-19 03:01:04	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	5¢	$3	0x9d720a…
06-19 03:00:25	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	169	1¢	$2	0x1c9d9a…
06-18 07:51:52	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	64	13¢	$8	0x29c373…
06-18 05:22:35	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	235	2¢	$4	0x691a80…
06-18 05:10:56	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$2	0x9eef62…
06-18 05:09:26	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	556	3¢	$15	0x615ad3…
06-18 05:09:01	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	444	3¢	$12	0x4c348a…
06-18 05:07:10	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	193	6¢	$11	0x0fc8a3…
06-18 05:06:04	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0x6c4d74…
06-16 03:14:19	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xfa9420…
06-16 02:47:42	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2,083	2¢	$50	0xcc7240…
06-16 02:42:30	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x2160cd…
06-16 02:41:52	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0xd6422d…
06-16 02:41:10	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x9815db…
06-16 02:37:03	nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 30 2026 0pt12	No	BUY	14	18¢	$2	0xa82d4b…
06-16 02:35:30	Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	22	11¢	$2	0xf620b9…
06-15 23:50:51	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe872d8…
06-15 23:46:18	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0xed316a…
06-15 23:44:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$1	0xaa0698…
06-13 02:40:18	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0x739249…
06-13 02:38:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xe25bdb…
06-13 02:32:06	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x91b777…
06-13 02:31:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5aedfd…
06-13 02:31:31	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0xc8d749…
06-12 03:36:39	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xb10954…
06-12 03:34:49	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	Yes	SELL	22	13¢	$3	0x7c427d…
06-12 03:32:40	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	Yes	BUY	22	16¢	$4	0xa01a24…
06-02 20:23:45	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	36¢	$11	0x77366e…
06-02 00:10:28	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x488b68…
06-02 00:10:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x78983c…
06-02 00:07:45	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xd6e787…
05-31 18:59:16	100kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0xc5edc9…
05-31 18:53:56	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	12¢	$4	0xf00967…
05-31 18:52:32	Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0x9a8393…
05-31 18:50:40	Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xb89eb7…
05-31 18:45:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	43	3¢	$1	0xa42e8c…
05-28 13:06:15	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0x94ac1d…
05-23 17:23:05	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	SELL	143	9¢	$13	0xddbd2d…
05-23 07:49:28	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x6d4f9e…
05-20 21:08:15	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	SELL	73	0¢	$0	0x7c227e…
05-20 21:08:05	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	Yes	SELL	1,894	0¢	$2	0xe6d8ac…
05-20 20:55:10	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	368	2¢	$7	0x9bb936…
05-19 23:43:54	Will NVIDIA say "Token" 20+ times during their next earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xd160c4…
05-19 23:43:12	Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xc07d86…
05-19 23:35:46	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	20¢	$6	0x53c7e9…
05-19 23:33:08	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x55ee29…
05-19 23:31:13	Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x46f8c1…
05-19 23:30:45	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x94c86d…
05-19 22:40:05	Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x14d56e…
05-19 22:39:25	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5d4d38…
05-19 12:58:23	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x56b580…
05-19 12:57:17	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	6¢	$0	0x03e731…
05-18 23:24:10	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	7¢	$3	0x2c1343…
05-18 23:21:34	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	36	91¢	$33	0xf7586f…
05-18 22:16:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xfeda28…
05-18 22:16:09	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0xb4b532…
05-17 20:40:04	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x9b05e4…
05-17 20:36:49	Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xb81bab…
05-17 20:34:35	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x8aae43…
05-17 20:28:13	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0xfc2023…
05-17 18:46:59	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	37	81¢	$30	0x00af27…
05-17 18:45:49	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	Yes	SELL	3,367	0¢	$8	0x3e6edd…
05-16 00:03:51	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	73	84¢	$61	0x25260f…
05-14 15:31:50	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	51	64¢	$33	0xf6aff4…
05-14 01:09:24	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	15¢	$8	0xa64f38…
05-14 01:04:39	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x34c08d…