Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
open
Total volume
$1,062
$624 in 24h
Trades
60
Unique wallets
27
Liquidity
$6,770
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-18 13:57
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $1 | $200 | $199 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 7 | $13 | — | +$13 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $1 | $22 | $21 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8 | $5 | $14 | $9 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $9 | $15 | $7 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $1 | $7 | $6 |
| Median | 2 | — | $23 | $23 |
| Below median | 4 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $190 | $190 |
| unranked | 4 | $5 | — | +$5 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | No | +198 | $190 | $190 | 1 | 06-02 05:02 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-07 19:26 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-07 19:26 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 5 | 06-07 19:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +50 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-17 00:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | +27 | $-0 | $6 | 17 | 06-18 13:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 18:40 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 5 | 06-15 14:50 |
| Favorable-Enclosure 0x08b9…3729 | No | +14 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-07 20:36 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-29 07:56 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +9 | $0 | $1 | 3 | 06-02 05:02 |
| Deserted-Shopping 0xbcba…223f | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-01 18:44 |
| Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-01 18:44 |
| Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | +4 | $4 | $14 | 9 | 06-17 13:26 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-27 21:39 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 13:57:19 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Shoes 0xed45…0d29 | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x000686… |
| 06-18 13:57:19 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 0 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x000686… |
| 06-17 13:26:50 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x27ba5f… |
| 06-17 13:26:50 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x27ba5f… |
| 06-17 00:30:49 | (anonymous) 0x270f…b303 | Yes | SELL | 133 | 4¢ | $6 | 0x484b82… |
| 06-17 00:30:49 | Strange-Minimum 0x8de2…8483 | No | SELL | 35 | 96¢ | $33 | 0x484b82… |
| 06-17 00:30:49 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x484b82… |
| 06-17 00:30:49 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x484b82… |
| 06-16 18:40:22 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x7bc37f… |
| 06-16 18:40:22 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x7bc37f… |
| 06-16 13:01:30 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x8721fe… |
| 06-16 13:01:30 | Well-Documented-Miter 0xa05c…aa9b | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x8721fe… |
| 06-16 12:47:16 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xfebf91… |
| 06-16 12:47:16 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0xfebf91… |
| 06-15 14:50:52 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x140f70… |
| 06-15 14:50:52 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x140f70… |
| 06-15 13:39:24 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | SELL | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x06ae3e… |
| 06-15 13:39:24 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 2 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x06ae3e… |
| 06-15 13:37:03 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | SELL | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0xc2cf26… |
| 06-15 13:37:03 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 2 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xc2cf26… |
| 06-11 19:57:37 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x87ced4… |
| 06-11 19:57:37 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x87ced4… |
| 06-11 19:57:37 | Sardonic-Bangle 0x70c7…2c31 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x87ced4… |
| 06-11 17:47:10 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x2de3f6… |
| 06-11 17:47:10 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x2de3f6… |
| 06-11 13:09:09 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 3 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x71dbda… |
| 06-11 13:09:09 | (anonymous) 0xcb05…accb | No | SELL | 3 | 92¢ | $3 | 0x71dbda… |
| 06-10 08:02:27 | Red-Girlfriend 0x7b64…8440 | No | SELL | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0x15165f… |
| 06-10 08:02:27 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 2 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x15165f… |
| 06-07 22:53:16 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x9290e8… |
| 06-07 22:53:16 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x9290e8… |
| 06-07 20:36:22 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1b198c… |
| 06-07 20:36:22 | Favorable-Enclosure 0x08b9…3729 | No | BUY | 14 | 96¢ | $14 | 0x1b198c… |
| 06-07 19:26:46 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xac62ec… |
| 06-07 19:26:46 | Shabby-Era 0x25c5…8581 | Yes | SELL | 962 | 4¢ | $36 | 0xac62ec… |
| 06-07 19:26:46 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 711 | 96¢ | $685 | 0xac62ec… |
| 06-07 19:26:46 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xac62ec… |
| 06-07 19:26:46 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xac62ec… |
| 06-07 19:26:46 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xac62ec… |
| 06-07 19:26:46 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xac62ec… |
| 06-04 15:24:31 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4fc90d… |
| 06-04 15:24:31 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x4fc90d… |
| 06-04 15:20:09 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xcc39b2… |
| 06-04 15:20:09 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xcc39b2… |
| 06-04 13:16:46 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x27266a… |
| 06-04 13:16:46 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x27266a… |
| 06-02 05:02:24 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | No | BUY | 198 | 96¢ | $190 | 0x3d6270… |
| 06-02 05:02:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x3d6270… |
| 06-02 05:02:24 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 89 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x3d6270… |
| 06-01 18:44:06 | Wee-Proportion 0x5052…faa2 | No | SELL | 6 | 92¢ | $6 | 0x77ca98… |
| 06-01 18:44:06 | Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | BUY | 0 | 92¢ | $0 | 0x77ca98… |
| 06-01 18:44:06 | Deserted-Shopping 0xbcba…223f | No | BUY | 6 | 92¢ | $6 | 0x77ca98… |
| 05-30 20:30:50 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd29fab… |
| 05-30 20:30:50 | Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd29fab… |
| 05-29 07:56:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x8156a7… |
| 05-29 07:56:41 | Pushy-Mango 0xcab5…f8c4 | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x8156a7… |
| 05-28 21:58:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x9298fa… |
| 05-28 21:58:04 | Chief-Postbox 0x4412…f131 | No | SELL | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x9298fa… |
| 05-27 21:39:27 | Red-Girlfriend 0x7b64…8440 | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x8e0dd4… |
| 05-27 21:39:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x8e0dd4… |