Realized P&L
-$588
Unrealized P&L
-$68
Hit rate
50.1%
Resolved
853
Trades
9,078
lifetime
Volume
$44.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$65
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-23
last 08-20 18:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 111 days
Categories
Politics
59% 61% -$53
Other
28% 48% -$475
Crypto
10% 50% -$85
Sports
3% 59% +$36
Tech
1% 59% -$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
9 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -9 -$7 94¢ $-8 -$1 05-02 03:30
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -7 -$5 97¢ $-7 -$2 06-05 08:01
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes +16 $23 43¢ $7 -$17 08-08 09:52
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -6 -$3 97¢ $-6 -$3 06-05 14:23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +7 $5 82¢ $6 +$1 08-13 00:10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -5 -$4 86¢ $-4 -$1 06-05 08:01
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -4 -$3 100¢ $-4 $0 06-05 14:33
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -3 -$3 99¢ $-3 $0 06-05 10:07
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +3 $2 81¢ $2 $0 07-13 22:38
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes +43 $4 4¢ $2 -$2 07-02 14:13
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +51 $3 3¢ $2 -$2 08-01 10:16
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +2 $2 74¢ $1 $0 07-15 22:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +7 $12 16¢ $1 -$10 08-13 00:10
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -1 -$1 96¢ $-1 $0 06-05 08:02
NATO dissolves before 2027? No -1 -$1 99¢ $-1 $0 06-05 14:33
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -29 -$2 4¢ $-1 +$1 06-05 08:02
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No -1 -$1 98¢ $-1 $0 06-05 14:23
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 06-05 14:24
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 06-05 08:02
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +6 $17 12¢ $1 -$16 08-19 16:04
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +126 $3 1¢ $1 -$2 07-15 16:12
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +1 $0 97¢ $1 +$0 06-29 12:21
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes +10 $7 6¢ $1 -$6 07-18 14:24
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +8 $6 6¢ $0 -$6 07-22 10:11
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes +2 $2 18¢ $0 -$1 07-11 18:53
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +2 -$1 16¢ $0 +$1 07-07 12:09
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +0 -$2 92¢ $0 +$2 07-15 18:34
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 05-20 11:53
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -1 $3 19¢ $-0 -$3 05-07 09:27
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +0 -$1 81¢ $0 +$1 05-07 09:27