Bold-Guerrilla — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.0%

Resolved

Trades

7,159

lifetime

Volume

$37.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-23

last 08-09 11:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

59% 67% +$1

Other

27% 0% $-0

Crypto

11% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 476 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	115	$2.5K	1,724	1,646	+79	open	—	08-02 03:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	195	$1.5K	3,940	3,839	+101	open	—	06-14 23:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	90	$1.3K	1,817	1,875	-58	open	—	06-14 21:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	132	$1.2K	3,790	3,938	-148	open	—	07-01 20:04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	68	$1.1K	1,458	1,458	+1	open	—	06-23 09:06
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	61	$1.1K	2,752	2,752	+0	open	—	07-01 06:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	31	$691	337	369	-32	open	—	06-05 14:33
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	51	$684	923	922	+0	open	—	07-03 19:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	75	$548	637	625	+12	open	—	08-08 09:51
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	50	$524	413	413	+0	open	—	06-18 18:17
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	26	$483	299	298	+1	open	—	06-18 03:30
will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	26	$471	413	439	-27	open	—	06-14 13:02
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	27	$452	261	258	+3	open	—	06-11 08:36
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	41	$437	1,060	1,157	-97	open	—	06-15 06:18
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	23	$406	204	226	-22	open	—	06-05 14:23
itf aguirre gonzale 2026 07 14	34	$381	495	433	+62	open	—	07-14 23:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	55	$375	429	426	+4	open	—	07-03 17:56
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	20	$373	243	234	+9	open	—	06-05 10:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	188	$341	842	827	+16	open	—	05-31 01:43
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	39	$333	217	206	+11	open	—	06-29 12:20
will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	27	$324	207	203	+3	open	—	06-29 12:20
atp inchaus stewart 2026 07 13	11	$310	358	310	+48	open	—	07-13 22:11
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	70	$307	644	629	+15	open	—	08-08 09:52
iran closes its airspace by june 8	27	$286	291	176	+115	open	—	06-07 22:42
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	64	$282	482	526	-44	open	—	06-14 22:21
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	160	$277	408	392	+16	open	—	04-27 18:07
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	35	$261	307	176	+131	open	—	06-14 21:26
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	6	$259	136	130	+6	open	—	06-29 14:05
world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	35	$234	125	121	+4	open	—	06-29 15:39
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	11	$231	279	69	+210	open	—	06-17 22:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 11:17:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	SELL	9	16¢	$1	0x0c7392…
08-09 11:05:27	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xf9beca…
08-08 09:52:40	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x96189a…
08-08 09:51:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x861c6c…
08-06 18:43:51	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	6	73¢	$4	0xb7181b…
08-02 03:53:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x8b05ff…
08-02 03:50:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$8	0x00d8a4…
08-02 02:11:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0x092d7b…
08-02 02:11:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x3ae726…
08-02 02:10:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0xa6f20b…
08-02 02:08:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x212407…
08-01 16:42:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	75	5¢	$4	0x2e982b…
08-01 10:17:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	34¢	$6	0xbada23…
08-01 10:16:48	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x4b6c7a…
08-01 10:16:47	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	26¢	$7	0xb0fe6c…
08-01 01:44:00	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0x777c74…
07-29 14:13:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xee5ec6…
07-29 13:49:54	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x0aa408…
07-29 13:33:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x4cb79e…
07-29 13:32:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$1	0xc96656…
07-29 12:50:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x96dbc8…
07-29 12:43:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x14219d…
07-29 12:39:41	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0x48fcd9…
07-29 12:34:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x4a5f69…
07-29 12:16:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x5e35e3…
07-29 10:06:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x996705…
07-28 22:53:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0xfe1f0c…
07-28 22:49:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x8c46c3…
07-28 22:49:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0xa88c38…
07-28 22:46:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	37¢	$3	0x6c6503…
07-28 22:45:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	15	36¢	$6	0x6996e6…
07-28 22:17:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x6f64e2…
07-28 22:17:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	74	77¢	$57	0xa0516d…
07-28 22:16:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0xd60045…
07-28 22:14:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x6e64e5…
07-28 22:14:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	18	36¢	$7	0x399ee4…
07-28 22:07:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7e9a42…
07-28 22:03:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0xe1afdb…
07-28 21:59:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xe435c6…
07-28 21:59:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$3	0x752e15…
07-28 21:50:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xf5f605…
07-28 18:34:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x41708b…
07-28 05:48:43	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x10bd28…
07-28 01:46:00	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x0811db…
07-28 01:22:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0xd05289…
07-28 01:04:25	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf61dd0…
07-28 01:04:24	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	61	5¢	$3	0xb9fa95…
07-28 01:04:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa0c71a…
07-28 01:04:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	36¢	$8	0x0120fd…
07-28 01:02:30	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x5f10ef…
07-28 01:02:27	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	25¢	$6	0x3e9ac9…
07-28 01:02:24	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xe826ae…
07-28 01:02:22	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x162a75…
07-28 01:02:21	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	SELL	44	5¢	$2	0x7d40a3…
07-28 01:02:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0xc78b2f…
07-28 01:02:10	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x2b9cf5…
07-28 01:02:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	55	77¢	$43	0xb1c9ea…
07-28 01:02:04	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0x0a5c70…
07-28 01:02:03	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0x538932…
07-28 01:02:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	35¢	$5	0x9dc0e7…
07-28 00:56:12	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x1e7ce5…
07-28 00:46:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x66be2f…
07-28 00:19:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x1e5c81…
07-28 00:16:00	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	91	90¢	$81	0xc301bd…
07-27 22:31:07	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xab75be…
07-27 22:28:13	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0x24f9c1…
07-27 21:27:46	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xdcbd5a…
07-27 21:25:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xb87c15…
07-27 20:25:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x22f73a…
07-27 18:36:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x8201ff…
07-27 17:38:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0xd9e531…
07-27 17:38:00	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$2	0xed7fc9…
07-27 17:37:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	35¢	$6	0x90e076…
07-27 16:34:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x4d7b6e…
07-27 16:01:55	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xe970c1…
07-27 15:39:01	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x75d103…
07-27 15:37:36	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xc392e9…
07-27 02:41:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0xc28b91…
07-26 23:40:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x77fcd8…
07-26 21:43:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	6	59¢	$4	0x0bebc1…
07-26 21:30:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x71ab8b…
07-26 21:14:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x907a3a…
07-26 21:14:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xe62f17…
07-26 21:13:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x153365…
07-26 21:09:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	33	59¢	$19	0xf24b8a…
07-26 21:08:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x9d305c…
07-26 21:07:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0xb9c290…
07-26 21:06:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xb24b33…
07-26 17:09:10	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x69bbd2…
07-26 16:27:13	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x071a8b…
07-26 09:43:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	36¢	$6	0x8c633d…
07-26 09:43:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x007c84…
07-26 09:43:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xe81d58…
07-26 09:43:03	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0x2dfa31…
07-26 09:30:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	122	79¢	$96	0x307efa…
07-26 06:02:18	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x539ad4…
07-25 16:33:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xafaf38…
07-25 16:32:58	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xb85205…
07-25 16:17:01	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	9	85¢	$7	0x3bd6e9…
07-25 16:05:09	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x1d6cda…