Meager-Envelope — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.5%

Resolved

Trades

209

lifetime

Volume

$6.05K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 08-04 10:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 100% +$2

Other

19% 100% +$41

Politics

13% 0% $-53

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	6	$357	420	420	+0	open	—	04-13 16:51
bitcoin above 76k on march 25	2	$300	150	150	+0	open	—	03-25 13:51
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$296	150	150	+0	open	—	03-30 05:35
bitcoin above 74k on march 25	2	$291	150	150	+0	open	—	03-25 11:51
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?	4	$250	150	103	+47	No	+$1	05-07 07:33
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	03-27 07:57
will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	03-29 14:26
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	03-26 07:32
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	03-30 10:12
bitcoin above 62k on april 3	3	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	03-31 14:01
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$147	150	0	+150	open	—	03-24 14:16
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	03-27 08:40
will solana reach 150 in march 2026	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	03-31 07:43
will solana reach 140 in march 2026	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	03-31 07:43
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	03-24 14:16
ethereum above 2500 on april 3	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	04-01 13:50
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	03-30 13:01
Will Solana dip to $50 in April?	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	04-22 12:13
will ethereum dip to 1400 in march 2026	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	03-28 05:26
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	03-30 15:00
Will Solana reach $120 in April?	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	04-21 17:11
will hyperliquid reach 52 in march	4	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	03-27 13:54
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	2	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	03-30 11:03
will hyperliquid dip to 28 in march	2	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	03-25 16:58
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026?	1	$96	0	97	-97	open	—	06-02 04:03
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	2	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	03-29 08:12
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	03-25 23:31
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 6?	1	$59	100	0	+100	No	+$41	05-06 08:18
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$59	30	30	+0	open	—	03-31 04:22
Perle Labs FDV above $300M one day after launch?	3	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	03-26 15:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 10:45:36	Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x8c2ec1…
07-21 21:01:22	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xa6e183…
07-09 10:19:23	Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xd7f801…
07-06 04:00:10	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x09942e…
07-06 03:37:29	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x32270e…
07-03 06:41:29	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xb9aab6…
07-03 05:25:35	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xc6d2cc…
07-01 14:14:43	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x2b36f2…
07-01 11:47:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x73b472…
07-01 06:13:50	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x3e8c6b…
06-21 15:12:10	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xc35ddc…
06-17 21:05:02	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x62ac7b…
06-14 11:52:28	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xc437c3…
06-11 02:29:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x3b8dc9…
06-02 21:25:19	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x9c2cc0…
06-02 04:03:39	XRP all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0x8f5dc1…
06-01 20:49:03	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xa68d27…
05-30 06:17:53	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x44c7ad…
05-15 16:46:57	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x82fbbd…
05-13 21:56:32	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	95¢	$14	0x196f33…
05-10 20:17:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xd180b2…
05-08 11:45:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xb046ab…
05-07 07:33:52	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x8058d4…
05-06 11:04:42	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$47	0x6fc7ea…
05-06 10:19:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x15d2a2…
05-06 10:18:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xd3b570…
05-06 08:18:20	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 6?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x53a8f1…
05-06 08:09:14	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x476b25…
05-06 08:08:10	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$2	0x20fbd9…
05-06 08:06:24	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x60d13b…
05-06 07:58:28	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xa4f23e…
05-06 07:43:14	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xc2037e…
05-06 07:42:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x1687ab…
05-06 07:18:32	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe68a55…
05-06 07:17:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xfd9a66…
05-03 10:37:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xa9cbe5…
05-02 14:19:16	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xfdeac4…
05-02 14:17:40	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	94¢	$14	0x371888…
05-02 14:01:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x1d36dd…
05-02 13:29:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xb12632…
05-02 12:49:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xfe55df…
05-02 12:47:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x921388…
04-30 20:27:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x7f46f1…
04-22 12:13:54	Will Solana dip to $50 in April?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x11f578…
04-21 17:11:50	Will Solana reach $120 in April?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x27fb6d…
04-19 07:22:50	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xc3aafe…
04-19 07:22:50	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x4f9aa4…
04-18 16:03:10	Will Solana dip to $50 in April?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x55debc…
04-18 16:00:26	Will Solana reach $120 in April?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x6db365…
04-18 15:33:24	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xa9986a…
04-16 20:06:40	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x92b844…
04-15 18:12:38	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x68db7b…
04-15 07:23:14	will velichie velichie win at least one seat in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x87a15d…
04-14 11:39:53	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xa87607…
04-13 18:07:49	Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0x549681…
04-13 16:55:39	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x4ff0d1…
04-13 16:51:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x36aa50…
04-13 16:49:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	200	35¢	$70	0xf704d2…
04-13 14:32:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	200	44¢	$87	0x664d63…
04-13 14:30:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	200	44¢	$88	0xb4cbd3…
04-13 14:26:37	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	200	43¢	$87	0x879013…
04-11 17:44:49	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xe620e8…
04-10 08:56:11	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xd96f64…
04-09 17:47:45	cricipl kol luc 2026 04 09	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x4bb4df…
04-08 20:48:55	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc66589…
04-08 20:43:47	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 atm1	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe5705d…
04-08 20:36:25	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 atm1	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xafc07c…
04-08 20:35:35	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3ba3ef…
04-08 20:33:25	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf1862d…
04-08 18:17:49	OneFootball FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x5084d1…
04-08 08:23:29	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x35f942…
04-08 00:02:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x6937f3…
04-07 16:10:27	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x4da1ce…
04-07 16:09:05	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xbe2877…
04-07 16:08:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x7eb9e8…
04-07 16:04:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xc71652…
04-06 23:53:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0xca0ed0…
04-06 23:51:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x06fdbb…
04-06 20:15:15	Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0xbca88f…
04-05 18:40:11	Critical Discord Incident by April 30?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xb6c422…
04-05 10:23:41	bitcoin above 62k on april 6	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x839dbd…
04-05 06:28:05	bitcoin above 62k on april 6	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x67aa72…
04-05 01:25:37	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x6c8d0b…
04-04 18:06:29	es2 dep mal 2026 04 04 dep	Yes	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0xb78f70…
04-04 09:03:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x0ff4b9…
04-04 08:59:03	es2 dep mal 2026 04 04 dep	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x86447d…
04-04 08:58:17	es2 dep mal 2026 04 04 dep	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4e6d0d…
04-04 08:57:39	es2 dep mal 2026 04 04 dep	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5d5a78…
04-04 08:48:39	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x7de8b1…
04-04 08:36:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x1053a7…
04-03 09:18:25	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xe32f2c…
04-03 09:07:31	will bitcoin dip to 56k march 30 april 5	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe548a7…
04-03 09:06:07	will bitcoin dip to 56k march 30 april 5	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0b8f55…
04-03 07:42:45	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x0e480f…
04-02 12:14:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x49ee07…
04-02 03:39:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x006ffb…
04-01 13:50:05	ethereum above 2500 on april 3	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xdb2b15…
04-01 11:54:35	ethereum above 1700 on april 3	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8538eb…
04-01 11:54:11	ethereum above 2500 on april 3	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe93546…
04-01 11:48:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xfbf0fe…