Short-Term-Nightgown — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$524

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

800

Trades

5,321

lifetime

Volume

$4.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

14 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 10-16 07:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 168 days

Categories

Other

47% 34% -$156

Politics

29% 44% -$56

Crypto

20% 16% -$275

Sports

3% 26% -$29

Tech

0% 25% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 7% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 164 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	-10	-$8	96¢	$-10	-$1	05-14 04:14
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	-28	-$2	2¢	$-1	+$1	05-17 02:37
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	-13	$6	4¢	$-1	-$7	10-16 07:15
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+4	$0	9¢	$0	$0	07-02 12:07
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-9	$3	3¢	$-0	-$3	10-16 07:16
Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+1	$0	1¢	$0	$0	10-03 10:37
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Yes	+0	$0	8¢	$0	$0	10-16 07:16
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	-$3	4¢	$0	+$3	09-21 17:52
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Yes	+0	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	09-03 08:34
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+0	-$1	2¢	$0	+$1	08-31 05:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	Yes	+0	-$1	1¢	$0	+$1	10-03 21:10
kanye west performs in russia by october 31	Yes	+0	-$1	0¢	$0	+$1	09-29 16:13
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?	Yes	+0	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	09-22 15:11
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?	Yes	+0	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	09-13 16:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?	17	$64	136	136	+0	Yes	+$2	06-19 22:03
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	15	$63	184	128	+56	No	-$5	06-21 10:42
will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	14	$56	77	77	+0	Yes	+$1	06-20 08:25
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 24?	9	$50	107	107	+0	Yes	+$3	06-21 21:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	14	$50	732	27	+705	No	-$32	06-22 12:19
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	14	$42	94	94	+0	No	+$0	06-20 14:47
Will Meta (META) close at $560-$570 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?	6	$41	216	66	+149	No	-$11	06-18 19:51
will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	13	$40	78	78	+0	No	+$2	06-20 22:53
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	15	$38	75	75	+0	open	—	06-12 16:31
will bitcoin dip to 62k june 22 28 2026	15	$35	47	47	+0	Yes	+$0	06-22 18:40
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	10	$31	118	109	+9	No	+$13	06-20 20:21
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?	9	$30	95	95	+0	No	+$1	06-21 03:41
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	22	$30	112	112	+0	Yes	+$7	07-03 07:41
Fed rate hike in 2026?	8	$30	76	76	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 19:14
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	13	$29	112	112	+0	No	+$8	05-12 09:45
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	11	$28	98	98	+0	open	—	10-16 07:15
will bitcoin dip to 62k june 15 21 2026	6	$27	70	14	+56	No	-$17	06-19 23:01
Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller	13	$27	73	73	+0	Elmer Moeller	+$2	05-12 08:59
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	7	$25	71	71	-0	No	+$2	06-22 22:13
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	11	$24	154	130	+24	No	-$1	06-24 09:10
gmgn fdv above 300m one day after launch	5	$23	26	26	+0	open	—	07-12 04:21
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day 6?	4	$23	79	42	+37	No	-$6	06-18 20:54
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	6	$21	34	34	+0	Yes	+$4	05-24 20:55
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	27	27	+0	No	+$4	06-08 07:20
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$20	125	83	+43	Yes	+$1	06-08 06:37
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?	7	$20	42	42	+0	open	—	07-17 20:01
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	13	$20	69	69	+0	No	$0	06-18 18:07
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17?	3	$20	37	32	+5	No	+$3	05-17 13:48
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?	3	$20	34	34	+0	No	+$3	05-26 00:45
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	9	$19	139	168	-28	open	—	05-17 02:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 07:17:52	Will Megan Moroney win Female Vocalist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xb88996…
10-16 07:17:51	Will Summit be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x725c94…
10-16 07:17:49	Will Nery Mozombite Cerrón win the next Maynas mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x60c6cd…
10-16 07:17:48	Will Forza Horizon 6 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xb98169…
10-16 07:17:48	Will Brent Rooker win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x209e3f…
10-16 07:17:46	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x387a34…
10-16 07:17:45	Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xbecb61…
10-16 07:17:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KY-03 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x180dec…
10-16 07:17:42	Will Project Hail Mary win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xe12585…
10-16 07:17:42	Will Daniel Hadad win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x5d06b4…
10-16 07:17:40	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 55% or more?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xff8b68…
10-16 07:17:40	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0xad164f…
10-16 07:17:39	Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xaa2a58…
10-16 07:17:39	Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x80e25b…
10-16 07:17:37	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-10 House election by 15%-18%?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0x82269a…
10-16 07:17:37	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x74b186…
10-16 07:17:36	Will Stephen Cuthbertson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x475121…
10-16 07:17:36	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x06945b…
10-16 07:17:34	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x588385…
10-16 07:17:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 45% or more?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x1a8984…
10-16 07:17:33	Will Christopher Clacio win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xc34796…
10-16 07:17:33	Will Ra'am win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	39	0¢	$0	0x0ad124…
10-16 07:17:31	Will Abdulrrahim Chindo win the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0x7b1336…
10-16 07:17:30	Will Juan Grabois win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0xa09dd0…
10-16 07:17:30	Will Borussia Dortmund score the most goals in the UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x5c551f…
10-16 07:17:28	Will Hsu Chih-fu win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0xea7b3a…
10-16 07:17:28	Will mada have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x8938fa…
10-16 07:17:27	Will The Debut win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0xb0b248…
10-16 07:17:27	Will Wesley Jackson win the 2026 Brampton mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xadf658…
10-16 07:17:27	Will Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0x341d3b…
10-16 07:17:25	Will Zwakele Mncwango be the next mayor of eThekwini?	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0x93abd4…
10-16 07:17:25	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x0989a3…
10-16 07:17:24	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Egypt?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x4f7df2…
10-16 07:17:22	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x3dad54…
10-16 07:17:22	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x183b39…
10-16 07:17:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xe819e7…
10-16 07:17:21	Will Ivan Herrera win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0x8842f3…
10-16 07:17:21	Will Miguel Andujar win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x16d25a…
10-16 07:17:19	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	90	0¢	$0	0xbd22c4…
10-16 07:17:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x7451a5…
10-16 07:17:19	Will Amcha Yisrael win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x359d32…
10-16 07:17:18	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	0¢	$0	0x698af0…
10-16 07:17:16	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be less than 250,000?	Yes	SELL	105	0¢	$0	0x8ce4b5…
10-16 07:17:16	Will José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x6ae2fd…
10-16 07:17:16	Will Ryan O'Hearn win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?	Yes	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0x13ff84…
10-16 07:17:15	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xbb899e…
10-16 07:17:15	Will Eugenio Suarez win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x0a4e9d…
10-16 07:17:13	Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $50 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x86b703…
10-16 07:17:13	Will Club Kid win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0x3cfc4d…
10-16 07:17:12	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x8d8da8…
10-16 07:17:10	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0xc097ca…
10-16 07:17:10	OPEC dissolves in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x24e4e2…
10-16 07:17:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election by 40% or more?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x11c4bc…
10-16 07:17:07	Will Darker have the most kills on a single map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Yes	SELL	148	0¢	$0	0xfd03d8…
10-16 07:17:07	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 3,250,000 and 3,500,000?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xc5a41f…
10-16 07:17:07	Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Yes	SELL	145	0¢	$0	0xbf68ff…
10-16 07:17:06	Will Donald Baxter win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x5ce73f…
10-16 07:17:06	Will The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	SELL	28	0¢	$0	0x424a99…
10-16 07:17:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-06 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x2206da…
10-16 07:17:04	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 900,000 and 1,000,000?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x170744…
10-16 07:17:03	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be less than 1,200,000?	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0x594914…
10-16 07:17:03	Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x361e8d…
10-16 07:17:03	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x319078…
10-16 07:17:01	Will Ellen Pakkies be the next mayor of Cape Town?	Yes	SELL	76	0¢	$0	0xdc62b6…
10-16 07:17:01	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	101	0¢	$0	0xce4bec…
10-16 07:17:00	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	51	0¢	$0	0x93dcec…
10-16 07:17:00	Will Kacey Musgraves win Female Vocalist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0x840ce2…
10-16 07:16:58	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WV-02 House election by 5%-15%?	Yes	SELL	57	0¢	$0	0x166326…
10-16 07:16:58	Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x00e133…
10-16 07:16:57	Will Yudai Endo win the 2026 Fukushima gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0xd2ecdc…
10-16 07:16:55	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be 850,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xe5b1e1…
10-16 07:16:55	Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?	No	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xa78391…
10-16 07:16:54	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xf702a2…
10-16 07:16:54	Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Kazakhstan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	233	0¢	$0	0x3f9408…
10-16 07:16:52	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KY-03 House election by 5%-15%?	Yes	SELL	64	0¢	$0	0xc65f25…
10-16 07:16:51	Will Mike Pence be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	59	0¢	$0	0x132391…
10-16 07:16:49	Obama arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x88906d…
10-16 07:16:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x6bfcd5…
10-16 07:16:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 20%-30%?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x18e2c9…
10-16 07:16:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x1151c5…
10-16 07:16:46	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Serbia?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x62198f…
10-16 07:16:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 60% or more?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x2de9b3…
10-16 07:16:45	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 985m and 990m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	74	0¢	$0	0xa33b2d…
10-16 07:16:45	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	118	0¢	$0	0x819cf1…
10-16 07:16:43	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0x5a296c…
10-16 07:16:43	Will Nvidia be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x56e9a9…
10-16 07:16:43	Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0x3dcb5b…
10-16 07:16:42	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	SELL	76	0¢	$0	0x9b0edc…
10-16 07:16:40	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0xeb9987…
10-16 07:16:40	Will the US lose between 0 and 25k jobs in October?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0xdb68fc…
10-16 07:16:40	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the next Kolkata municipal election?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x53b0c7…
10-16 07:16:39	Will Kerry Carpenter win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0xb11270…
10-16 07:16:39	Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	91	0¢	$0	0x8a8f4c…
10-16 07:16:37	Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?	No	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0x97e66a…
10-16 07:16:37	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	27	2¢	$0	0x963bfa…
10-16 07:16:37	Will Joc Pederson win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x22c5ee…
10-16 07:16:36	Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	1¢	$0	0x18fa69…
10-16 07:16:34	Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$0	0xe21420…
10-16 07:16:34	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xb5306f…
10-16 07:16:34	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x51c443…