Realized P&L
-$70.2K
Unrealized P&L
-$443
Hit rate
55.3%
Resolved
1,895
Trades
90,925
lifetime
Volume
$1.61M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$6.98K
26 positions
First seen
2026-04-01
last 09-17 11:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 58 days
Categories
Politics
29% 54% -$11,352
Other
27% 37% -$80,023
Sports
26% 38% +$24,887
Crypto
18% 39% -$3,743
Tech
0% 100% +$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
2 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -1,006 -$915 100¢ $-1002 -$87 05-01 13:59
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No -962 -$956 100¢ $-958 -$2 05-01 13:58
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No -1,081 -$989 84¢ $-903 +$86 05-01 13:58
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -905 -$574 82¢ $-739 -$166 05-13 06:15
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -705 -$648 97¢ $-684 -$36 05-13 06:15
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -1,041 -$531 66¢ $-682 -$151 05-01 14:00
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No -370 -$365 99¢ $-368 -$3 05-18 11:52
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -285 -$268 99¢ $-282 -$14 06-22 09:03
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No -277 -$219 82¢ $-227 -$8 06-25 12:33
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No -217 -$202 97¢ $-210 -$8 06-20 08:51
NATO dissolves before 2027? No -158 -$152 99¢ $-156 -$5 06-24 07:25
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No -131 -$128 99¢ $-129 -$1 06-24 07:25
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -120 -$103 97¢ $-116 -$13 06-22 09:04
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -130 -$95 90¢ $-116 -$21 07-14 14:02
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -82 -$58 87¢ $-71 -$13 06-29 06:15
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes -79 -$66 81¢ $-64 +$2 06-25 12:33
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No -64 -$57 95¢ $-61 -$4 06-29 06:15
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No -63 -$55 88¢ $-56 -$1 06-29 06:15
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No -55 -$53 98¢ $-54 $0 06-29 06:15
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -47 -$44 97¢ $-46 -$2 07-15 13:06
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No -27 -$26 97¢ $-27 -$1 09-14 09:35
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -23 -$20 86¢ $-20 $0 09-14 09:35
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -500 -$12 2¢ $-8 +$4 09-14 09:36
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes -22 -$1 6¢ $-1 +$0 06-26 17:56
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +17 $5 6¢ $1 -$4 06-16 10:13
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes -8 -$3 10¢ $-1 +$2 05-13 10:19