Elastic-Sleep — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$593

Unrealized P&L

+$422

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

158

lifetime

Volume

$54.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$345

Open exposure

$567

1 position

First seen

2026-02-08

last 07-03 09:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% 0% $-22

Other

44% 0% $-571

Tech

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI		-3,337	$-989	17¢	$-567	+$422	06-16 09:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	4	$3.9K	3,249	3,249	+0	open	—	06-10 20:29
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	3	$3.6K	1,805	1,805	+0	open	—	03-19 07:04
will axiom be accused of insider trading	2	$2.2K	1,113	1,113	+0	open	—	02-26 13:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$2.0K	1,029	1,029	+0	open	—	02-17 11:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$2.0K	1,381	1,381	+0	open	—	06-14 21:42
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$1.9K	990	990	+0	open	—	04-13 18:12
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	2	$1.9K	1,637	1,637	+0	open	—	06-22 10:15
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$1.8K	2,556	2,556	+0	open	—	06-14 10:25
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	2	$1.8K	909	909	+0	open	—	03-22 20:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$1.8K	3,913	3,913	+0	open	—	06-14 10:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$1.8K	1,059	1,059	+0	open	—	06-14 10:25
andy burnham becomes an mp by june 30	2	$1.8K	904	904	+0	open	—	06-22 13:39
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	2	$1.8K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	06-26 11:46
will romuald wadagni be the next president of benin	2	$1.8K	902	902	+0	open	—	04-14 00:09
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	2	$1.8K	949	949	+0	Yes	$-22	03-16 00:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	2	$1.8K	1,014	1,014	+0	open	—	06-27 00:39
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	2	$1.8K	2,188	2,188	+0	open	—	06-22 10:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$1.7K	1,398	1,398	+0	open	—	06-15 10:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$1.7K	2,903	2,903	+0	open	—	04-10 14:07
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$1.7K	3,462	3,462	+0	open	—	04-10 14:07
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	2	$1.6K	927	927	+0	open	—	06-22 22:54
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	2	$1.3K	3,333	3,333	+0	open	—	02-17 14:50
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	2	$1.2K	907	907	+0	Yes	$-571	04-27 00:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$1.1K	3,823	3,823	+0	open	—	02-17 18:41
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$996	613	613	+0	open	—	03-02 20:14
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	1	$989	0	3,337	-3,337	open	—	06-16 09:52
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	1	$900	900,000	0	+900,000	open	—	06-15 11:22
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$701	740	740	+0	open	—	03-02 20:14
Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?	2	$532	408	408	+0	open	—	04-07 09:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$502	528	528	+0	open	—	05-29 14:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 09:19:43	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by december 31	Yes	BUY	508	78¢	$398	0xfbfa4c…
06-27 00:39:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	SELL	1,014	86¢	$868	0x2611f0…
06-27 00:32:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	BUY	1,014	89¢	$900	0xda249d…
06-26 11:46:19	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	SELL	1,002	89¢	$893	0xd847b6…
06-24 18:43:16	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	1,002	90¢	$900	0x528fc3…
06-23 21:52:01	will the republic of the congo have an ebola case in 2026	Yes	BUY	758	39¢	$294	0x38b927…
06-23 10:29:07	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,157	7¢	$81	0xd91969…
06-23 07:57:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,157	8¢	$93	0x9634d3…
06-22 22:54:53	Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	Yes	SELL	927	78¢	$722	0x2df7e7…
06-22 22:36:16	Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	Yes	BUY	927	97¢	$900	0xe679a1…
06-22 13:39:14	andy burnham becomes an mp by june 30	Yes	SELL	904	99¢	$893	0x464881…
06-22 13:38:29	andy burnham becomes an mp by june 30	Yes	BUY	904	100¢	$900	0x98595c…
06-22 10:15:19	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,637	60¢	$976	0xfd8d4a…
06-22 10:15:19	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,188	39¢	$856	0xfc1afa…
06-22 09:53:01	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,637	55¢	$900	0xa7232b…
06-22 09:53:01	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,188	41¢	$900	0x0811ee…
06-20 21:44:13	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	237	95¢	$226	0xd47f83…
06-20 13:06:47	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	237	40¢	$94	0xa6ff8f…
06-19 13:51:01	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	Yes	SELL	165	4¢	$6	0xe4b71c…
06-19 13:48:14	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	Yes	BUY	165	4¢	$7	0x8e4458…
06-16 09:52:09	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	3,337	30¢	$989	0xd7eab1…
06-15 11:22:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	900,000	0¢	$900	0x795141…
06-15 10:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,398	60¢	$839	0x5f7962…
06-15 10:57:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	14,754	0¢	$44	0x57586f…
06-15 05:20:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,398	64¢	$900	0xecb949…
06-15 05:20:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	14,754	0¢	$44	0xb9759e…
06-14 21:42:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,381	78¢	$1,077	0x23a3bd…
06-14 21:16:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,381	65¢	$900	0x9f65b4…
06-14 10:25:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3,913	23¢	$900	0xfe3f5a…
06-14 10:25:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,059	85¢	$897	0xdca97f…
06-14 10:25:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	2,432	38¢	$916	0x7aa3f6…
06-14 10:25:55	Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	11¢	$5	0x67f583…
06-14 09:56:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,059	85¢	$900	0x78590b…
06-14 09:56:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	3,913	23¢	$900	0xd6babf…
06-14 09:56:18	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	2,432	37¢	$900	0x1bb81b…
06-14 09:55:01	Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	12¢	$6	0x527174…
06-13 16:47:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0x3eb8ab…
06-13 16:46:16	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$3	0x964833…
06-13 14:28:33	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	Yes	SELL	385	82¢	$318	0x5e075b…
06-10 20:29:45	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	123	6¢	$7	0x79ea8b…
06-10 20:29:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	431	32¢	$138	0x045be9…
06-10 17:50:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	431	33¢	$142	0x3edbb8…
06-10 17:50:27	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	123	7¢	$9	0x65ef4d…
05-29 14:53:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,817	65¢	$1,839	0x479603…
05-29 14:53:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	528	74¢	$391	0x0f90a5…
05-29 14:51:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,817	63¢	$1,775	0x794938…
05-29 14:51:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	528	21¢	$111	0x64b2be…
05-21 16:22:42	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	360	0¢	$1	0x1c1609…
05-20 10:55:54	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x6418a2…
05-20 10:05:55	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	195	0¢	$1	0x260c8a…
05-20 10:05:53	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	510	0¢	$1	0x1f4963…
05-19 21:32:08	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	1¢	$1	0xc8055c…
05-19 21:32:08	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	884	8¢	$70	0x2d85b7…
05-12 05:59:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	861	17¢	$146	0x3fa07d…
05-12 05:59:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	861	18¢	$155	0x39d6ff…
04-27 00:26:42	Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Yes	SELL	907	36¢	$329	0xc5001a…
04-26 13:29:00	Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Yes	BUY	907	99¢	$900	0xedbc11…
04-20 22:01:02	Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x3e998d…
04-20 20:30:20	Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xa45a3e…
04-16 02:00:04	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt0 and 5pt5	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x42aefe…
04-14 00:09:19	will romuald wadagni be the next president of benin	Yes	SELL	902	99¢	$891	0x506daa…
04-13 23:29:11	will romuald wadagni be the next president of benin	Yes	BUY	902	100¢	$900	0xc079a1…
04-13 18:12:41	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	990	99¢	$979	0xff67ac…
04-13 02:27:47	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	990	91¢	$900	0x93813a…
04-10 14:07:11	Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April?	Yes	SELL	247	56¢	$139	0xb79226…
04-10 14:07:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	2,903	28¢	$813	0x7c1259…
04-10 14:07:09	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	3,462	22¢	$762	0xa8f37d…
04-10 05:14:27	Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April?	Yes	BUY	247	58¢	$142	0x11d161…
04-09 23:46:05	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	3,462	26¢	$900	0xbbb8a6…
04-09 23:46:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	2,903	31¢	$900	0xfac4cd…
04-07 09:15:17	Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	408	31¢	$125	0x204349…
04-06 07:13:59	Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	BUY	408	100¢	$407	0x6d654b…
03-26 23:10:01	will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	Yes	SELL	568	20¢	$113	0xbe5b56…
03-26 23:09:53	Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?	Yes	SELL	66	30¢	$20	0xe4b0cb…
03-26 11:01:09	Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?	Yes	BUY	66	43¢	$29	0xef36f1…
03-26 02:40:51	will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	Yes	BUY	568	19¢	$107	0xdaf676…
03-22 20:53:05	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	SELL	909	100¢	$908	0x308d81…
03-22 19:46:15	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	909	99¢	$900	0x823b05…
03-19 07:04:57	Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	SELL	1,805	99¢	$1,796	0xff1cb9…
03-19 07:03:09	Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	BUY	903	100¢	$900	0xc38c04…
03-19 07:03:09	Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	BUY	903	100¢	$900	0x26059f…
03-16 00:10:49	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	Yes	SELL	949	92¢	$878	0x83cabb…
03-16 00:10:01	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	Yes	BUY	949	95¢	$900	0xd6c420…
03-16 00:03:01	will trump meet with xi jinping in march 2026 241	Yes	SELL	86	57¢	$49	0xa46672…
03-16 00:02:31	will trump meet with xi jinping in march 2026 241	Yes	BUY	86	68¢	$59	0x4bb57f…
03-02 20:14:07	will russia capture drobysheve by march 31	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xf5c52b…
03-02 20:14:05	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	740	48¢	$358	0xc5157c…
03-02 20:14:05	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	SELL	613	81¢	$496	0x26f77e…
03-02 10:37:31	will russia capture drobysheve by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x61eae1…
03-02 08:40:29	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	740	46¢	$342	0xfb6596…
03-02 08:40:29	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	613	82¢	$500	0xc77739…
02-26 19:17:12	will donald trump say ballroom on truth social this week	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xb5d73b…
02-26 18:24:28	will donald trump say ballroom on truth social this week	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xe2ccc0…
02-26 13:48:26	will axiom be accused of insider trading	Yes	SELL	1,113	100¢	$1,112	0x65ea7e…
02-26 13:41:26	will axiom be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	1,113	100¢	$1,111	0xd09d93…
02-25 19:19:18	will trump talk to volodymyr zelenskyy in february	Yes	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x16cbc6…
02-25 18:47:48	will trump talk to volodymyr zelenskyy in february	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x64c665…
02-20 15:03:26	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x32322c…
02-20 15:02:12	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	BUY	66	89¢	$59	0xe4a1ff…
02-20 14:24:56	Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,065	0¢	$2	0x641374…