Realized P&L
+$51.6K
Unrealized P&L
-$319
Hit rate
59.4%
Resolved
5,102
Trades
16,072
lifetime
Volume
$1.03M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$64
Open exposure
$45.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-26
last 10-05 21:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 169 days
Categories
Politics
49% 53% -$2,061
Other
38% 49% +$27,675
Sports
10% 52% +$26,911
Tech
2% 49% -$1,719
Pop-Culture
0% 50% +$798
Crypto
0% 50% +$38
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
1 active day in 12wk • peak 568 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -17,229 -$16,368 94¢ $-16281 +$86 10-05 17:39
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -3,864 -$3,444 89¢ $-3439 +$6 10-05 17:40
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No -2,692 -$2,548 97¢ $-2614 -$66 10-05 17:40
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No -2,809 -$2,670 91¢ $-2561 +$109 10-05 17:40
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -2,611 -$2,513 96¢ $-2516 -$3 10-05 17:40
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -2,321 -$2,066 92¢ $-2147 -$81 10-05 17:40
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -1,940 -$1,843 96¢ $-1868 -$25 10-05 17:40
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No -1,400 -$1,134 82¢ $-1141 -$7 10-05 17:40
US military draft authorized in 2026? No -1,129 -$1,077 96¢ $-1085 -$8 10-05 17:40
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes -915 -$808 98¢ $-900 -$92 10-05 17:40
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No -916 -$860 96¢ $-879 -$19 10-05 17:40
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No -964 -$878 84¢ $-809 +$69 10-05 17:40
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No -811 -$802 99¢ $-804 -$2 10-05 17:40
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No -783 -$757 95¢ $-742 +$15 10-05 17:40
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat? No -702 -$684 98¢ $-690 -$6 10-05 17:40
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No -692 -$629 91¢ $-629 +$0 10-05 17:40
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes -1,044 -$365 60¢ $-621 -$256 10-05 17:40
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No -633 -$609 96¢ $-610 $0 10-05 17:40
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No -683 -$513 86¢ $-584 -$71 10-05 18:23
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No -613 -$558 90¢ $-548 +$9 10-05 17:40
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No -526 -$506 96¢ $-506 +$0 10-05 17:40
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No +478 $392 94¢ $451 +$59 04-30 20:17
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No -478 -$454 94¢ $-449 +$5 10-05 17:40
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No -477 -$454 94¢ $-447 +$7 10-05 17:40
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No -491 -$398 89¢ $-437 -$39 10-05 17:40
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? No -417 -$415 100¢ $-416 -$1 10-05 17:40
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No -374 -$341 94¢ $-351 -$10 10-05 21:21
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -350 -$292 84¢ $-294 -$2 10-05 17:40
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? No -263 -$257 97¢ $-256 +$1 10-05 17:40
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? No -269 -$257 94¢ $-254 +$3 10-05 17:40