Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
open
Total volume
$24,662
$34,261 in 24h
Trades
61
Unique wallets
34
Liquidity
$93,066
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-11-03
First seen
2026-05-04
last 05-05 21:44
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
No active YES holders.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | — | $22.8K | $22.8K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 32 | $3 | $1.7K | $1.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 1 | — | $20 | $20 |
| Below median | 1 | — | $916 | $916 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 31 | $3 | $23.6K | $23.6K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Powerful-Election 0x000d…758e | No | +22,842 | $21,933 | $21,933 | 2 | 05-05 01:50 |
| Amusing-Substitution 0x5c7a…1a97 | No | +951 | $916 | $916 | 3 | 05-05 18:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x515e…ec0d | No | +764 | $734 | $734 | 3 | 05-05 01:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x1234…c1bb | No | +544 | $523 | $523 | 3 | 05-05 01:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x43e8…af56 | No | +113 | $109 | $109 | 3 | 05-05 01:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x2bcf…0710 | No | +64 | $62 | $62 | 3 | 05-05 01:50 |
| Fearful-Error 0x1672…c10e | No | +61 | $58 | $58 | 1 | 05-04 22:39 |
| Enchanted-Spite 0x6216…cbe0 | No | +55 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 05-05 08:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xb434…1de3 | No | +31 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 05-05 01:50 |
| Drafty-Buffet 0x61a0…0ae9 | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 05-05 00:54 |
| Ideal-Toga 0xad26…bf29 | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 4 | 05-05 01:50 |
| Trusting-Tensor 0xd136…24ce | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 05-05 00:54 |
| Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | +13 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 05-05 08:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | No | +12 | $12 | $12 | 4 | 05-05 01:50 |
| Entire-Frame 0x417b…18d3 | No | +12 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 05-05 09:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x3d03…9d52 | No | +12 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 05-05 00:54 |
| Happy-Go-Lucky-Manicure 0xfe61…e9c2 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-05 00:55 |
| Tender-Tradition 0xef4a…5eeb | No | +8 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-05 01:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a14…8540 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 00:54 |
| Quarrelsome-Clockwork 0x2044…9353 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 01:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xb8e3…d7ad | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 00:54 |
| Warlike-Shoemaker 0x4eb6…5e8a | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 00:55 |
| Scholarly-Pancake 0x144b…6caa | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 4 | 05-05 00:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x0740…1ad4 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-05 00:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x6e75…cd0d | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 01:45 |
| These-Digestion 0x7c1d…5f40 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 00:55 |
| Twin-Cheer 0x3d29…df52 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 00:54 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 21:44:52 | Quarrelsome-Provision 0xb7b5…ede7 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x8f265e… |
| 05-05 20:11:58 | Shiny-Sunset 0xc985…ee44 | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xdd4463… |
| 05-05 18:07:54 | Amusing-Substitution 0x5c7a…1a97 | No | BUY | 405 | 96¢ | $390 | 0xb88041… |
| 05-05 16:07:32 | Amusing-Substitution 0x5c7a…1a97 | No | BUY | 259 | 96¢ | $250 | 0x1b86d2… |
| 05-05 15:47:22 | Flawed-Seaside 0xf993…acad | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0xb34dcd… |
| 05-05 15:44:44 | Amusing-Substitution 0x5c7a…1a97 | No | BUY | 287 | 96¢ | $276 | 0x64e6f2… |
| 05-05 10:56:22 | Probable-Pup 0x569e…fdab | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x44c81c… |
| 05-05 09:26:22 | Entire-Frame 0x417b…18d3 | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x9b8ded… |
| 05-05 08:10:52 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 13 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x9df637… |
| 05-05 08:01:12 | Enchanted-Spite 0x6216…cbe0 | No | BUY | 55 | 96¢ | $53 | 0x6bfec7… |
| 05-05 01:55:02 | Bold-Album 0xcf55…aa6f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xfda4a5… |
| 05-05 01:50:16 | (anonymous) 0x515e…ec0d | No | BUY | 343 | 96¢ | $330 | 0x00e87c… |
| 05-05 01:50:16 | (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x74e4d5… |
| 05-05 01:50:16 | (anonymous) 0x43e8…af56 | No | BUY | 103 | 96¢ | $99 | 0xc593a5… |
| 05-05 01:50:16 | (anonymous) 0xb434…1de3 | No | BUY | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x9e7df0… |
| 05-05 01:50:12 | (anonymous) 0x2bcf…0710 | No | BUY | 31 | 96¢ | $30 | 0xb61a72… |
| 05-05 01:50:12 | Powerful-Election 0x000d…758e | No | BUY | 10,286 | 96¢ | $9,885 | 0xc45591… |
| 05-05 01:50:12 | Ideal-Toga 0xad26…bf29 | No | BUY | 8 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xfc11d2… |
| 05-05 01:45:22 | (anonymous) 0x1234…c1bb | No | BUY | 34 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x2a9765… |
| 05-05 01:45:22 | (anonymous) 0x6e75…cd0d | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x4b14e5… |
| 05-05 01:45:22 | Quarrelsome-Clockwork 0x2044…9353 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3d4d62… |
| 05-05 01:45:16 | (anonymous) 0x43e8…af56 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf5de03… |
| 05-05 01:45:16 | (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x88caff… |
| 05-05 01:45:14 | Ideal-Toga 0xad26…bf29 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xea3a35… |
| 05-05 01:45:12 | Messy-Grit 0x3fa9…12c2 | No | SELL | 11 | 96¢ | $11 | 0xaa0060… |
| 05-05 01:20:08 | Tender-Tradition 0xef4a…5eeb | No | BUY | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x651a99… |
| 05-05 00:55:06 | These-Digestion 0x7c1d…5f40 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa321da… |
| 05-05 00:55:00 | Warlike-Shoemaker 0x4eb6…5e8a | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa2f0e2… |
| 05-05 00:55:00 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Manicure 0xfe61…e9c2 | No | BUY | 11 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xedf7d7… |
| 05-05 00:54:54 | (anonymous) 0x1234…c1bb | No | BUY | 94 | 96¢ | $91 | 0xfe9179… |
| 05-05 00:54:52 | (anonymous) 0x1234…c1bb | No | BUY | 416 | 96¢ | $400 | 0xf2bc3e… |
| 05-05 00:54:48 | Scholarly-Pancake 0x144b…6caa | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x763195… |
| 05-05 00:54:48 | Scholarly-Pancake 0x144b…6caa | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa5ef17… |
| 05-05 00:54:48 | Scholarly-Pancake 0x144b…6caa | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x4ff07f… |
| 05-05 00:54:48 | Scholarly-Pancake 0x144b…6caa | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x2040f0… |
| 05-05 00:54:44 | Trusting-Tensor 0xd136…24ce | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0x7d1d84… |
| 05-05 00:54:44 | Trusting-Tensor 0xd136…24ce | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xa53b41… |
| 05-05 00:54:42 | (anonymous) 0x515e…ec0d | No | BUY | 419 | 96¢ | $402 | 0xc35ec0… |
| 05-05 00:54:40 | Twin-Cheer 0x3d29…df52 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xacdd0c… |
| 05-05 00:54:38 | Drafty-Buffet 0x61a0…0ae9 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x907ec7… |
| 05-05 00:54:38 | Drafty-Buffet 0x61a0…0ae9 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x0e25d3… |
| 05-05 00:54:36 | (anonymous) 0x43e8…af56 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x08c66a… |
| 05-05 00:54:34 | (anonymous) 0x515e…ec0d | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xaf35ee… |
| 05-05 00:54:34 | (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xaa935e… |
| 05-05 00:54:34 | (anonymous) 0xb434…1de3 | No | BUY | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x96aaa0… |
| 05-05 00:54:34 | (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xe339ae… |
| 05-05 00:54:32 | Bold-Album 0xcf55…aa6f | Yes | SELL | 62 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xe4c19c… |
| 05-05 00:54:32 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | SELL | 80 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xc6d575… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | Powerful-Election 0x000d…758e | No | BUY | 12,555 | 96¢ | $12,048 | 0xb8e658… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | Bold-Album 0xcf55…aa6f | Yes | BUY | 63 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xc66918… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0x0740…1ad4 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x8e0374… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0xb8e3…d7ad | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xaa8671… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | Ideal-Toga 0xad26…bf29 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x6bd28d… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0x4a14…8540 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x86e48b… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0x0740…1ad4 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0cd5c3… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0x2bcf…0710 | No | BUY | 31 | 96¢ | $30 | 0xff28fd… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | Ideal-Toga 0xad26…bf29 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xf3a5f5… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0x3d03…9d52 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x56042b… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0x3d03…9d52 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x8a8763… |
| 05-05 00:54:30 | (anonymous) 0x2bcf…0710 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x826dfb… |
| 05-04 22:39:46 | Fearful-Error 0x1672…c10e | No | BUY | 61 | 95¢ | $58 | 0x29125c… |