Powerful-Election — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$735

Unrealized P&L

-$350

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,084

lifetime

Volume

$9.77M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$3.17K

Open exposure

$643

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-11 02:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% 100% +$159

Other

45% 100% +$577

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes		+1,810	$993	36¢	$643	$-350	07-11 02:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	76	$620.5K	527,098	100,831	+426,267	open	—	04-10 18:05
nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026	12	$401.2K	301,382	101,453	+199,929	open	—	01-10 00:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	88	$389.7K	221,261	209,257	+12,003	open	—	03-01 18:36
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	17	$368.8K	372,837	0	+372,837	open	—	03-18 17:48
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	51	$357.3K	152,797	213,288	-60,491	open	—	02-05 18:53
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	87	$317.4K	305,502	20,000	+285,502	open	—	01-28 20:34
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	27	$299.0K	300,000	0	+300,000	open	—	01-03 20:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$295.9K	313,208	24,233	+288,974	open	—	04-07 00:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	19	$291.7K	289,793	32,979	+256,813	open	—	04-30 00:22
netanyahu out by march 31 854	95	$289.3K	298,672	0	+298,672	open	—	03-22 19:22
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	468	$282.7K	142,836	142,836	+0	open	—	03-31 19:57
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	52	$274.6K	145,533	145,533	+0	open	—	03-12 23:15
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	26	$253.3K	181,900	78,006	+103,894	open	—	03-04 01:22
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	59	$224.6K	109,057	118,967	-9,910	open	—	01-31 16:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	11	$207.0K	5,000	202,785	-197,785	open	—	06-20 19:06
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	85	$185.8K	96,692	95,077	+1,614	open	—	03-20 14:40
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	29	$169.2K	142,378	40,000	+102,378	open	—	03-31 19:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	28	$166.2K	89,600	89,597	+3	open	—	06-23 15:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	37	$158.2K	95,403	79,059	+16,344	open	—	01-31 20:07
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	65	$154.8K	180,801	10,993	+169,809	open	—	03-26 06:26
will khamenei leave iran by friday	42	$144.4K	146,551	0	+146,551	open	—	01-09 08:57
will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	15	$138.3K	66,355	75,768	-9,414	open	—	01-18 23:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	11	$136.7K	87,926	52,000	+35,926	open	—	05-22 23:49
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	97	$135.8K	127,308	13,345	+113,963	open	—	07-01 01:20
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	14	$130.3K	72,051	61,051	+11,000	open	—	02-27 03:52
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	40	$119.0K	119,816	0	+119,816	open	—	01-03 11:58
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	12	$109.4K	109,786	0	+109,786	open	—	01-03 23:34
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	18	$108.1K	64,768	52,300	+12,468	open	—	04-24 15:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	6	$98.9K	54,977	54,977	+0	open	—	03-27 05:12
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	44	$98.0K	52,528	52,742	-214	open	—	01-20 10:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 02:47:58	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,810	55¢	$993	0x014a23…
07-02 21:11:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	132	99¢	$131	0x1d6652…
07-02 20:39:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	267	99¢	$264	0xc4f99c…
07-02 20:35:55	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xab819d…
07-02 20:28:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	909	99¢	$899	0xfe4875…
07-02 20:25:55	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xb85b31…
07-02 20:21:25	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0xbb5b10…
07-02 20:17:56	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x45af0e…
07-02 20:11:44	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	700	99¢	$692	0x52d79e…
07-02 20:00:53	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x03caba…
07-02 19:53:10	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	4,073	99¢	$4,028	0xee3df2…
07-02 19:31:43	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	4,334	99¢	$4,285	0x6b91e3…
07-02 18:44:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	6,223	98¢	$6,129	0x1f66bf…
07-01 01:20:41	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x56f020…
07-01 01:08:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x59c294…
07-01 01:02:34	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	11,003	93¢	$10,260	0xa195e0…
07-01 00:50:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xae88e4…
07-01 00:20:41	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xbc0338…
06-30 23:50:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x1923cd…
06-30 23:19:14	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0x19fe8d…
06-30 22:56:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,528	100¢	$1,527	0xbc6746…
06-30 22:30:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x4090fc…
06-30 22:04:01	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x82d824…
06-30 22:03:58	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2a3e65…
06-30 22:03:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x75ad59…
06-30 22:03:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb07ff8…
06-30 22:03:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa9b3d2…
06-30 22:03:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6c8426…
06-30 22:03:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5b4b19…
06-30 22:03:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x11668d…
06-30 22:03:53	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe89227…
06-30 22:03:53	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x613032…
06-30 22:03:53	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x36dfbe…
06-30 22:03:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc1a956…
06-30 22:03:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x93f884…
06-30 22:03:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8bab71…
06-30 22:03:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7555eb…
06-30 22:03:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1a230c…
06-30 22:03:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x00249d…
06-30 22:03:50	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd68f79…
06-30 22:03:50	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4e6094…
06-30 22:03:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x945e23…
06-30 22:03:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8d92bd…
06-30 22:03:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3ffd04…
06-30 22:03:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3a909a…
06-30 22:03:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x060375…
06-30 22:03:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf2320d…
06-30 22:03:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xac4f73…
06-30 22:03:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x994025…
06-30 22:03:46	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xcc425d…
06-30 22:03:46	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc83d49…
06-30 22:03:46	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x895f1e…
06-30 22:03:46	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1651d3…
06-30 22:03:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0e99cb…
06-30 22:03:41	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x43f3db…
06-30 22:03:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xac766f…
06-30 22:03:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe32335…
06-30 22:03:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x43aa33…
06-30 20:10:53	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,120	100¢	$4,112	0x483d63…
06-30 20:09:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,312	100¢	$1,311	0x5c59aa…
06-30 19:56:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	393	83¢	$325	0x92bc1d…
06-30 19:56:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0xc441aa…
06-29 07:32:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	620	98¢	$607	0xc3bcbe…
06-29 07:02:43	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	98¢	$153	0x7646ff…
06-29 06:38:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	619	98¢	$606	0x88f67f…
06-29 06:25:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	704	98¢	$689	0xbad781…
06-29 02:41:08	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2,447	97¢	$2,371	0x53a2b0…
06-29 01:16:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	28	81¢	$22	0xdb4ed6…
06-28 22:03:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	10,582	70¢	$7,437	0x8887dc…
06-28 22:03:05	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	6,000	100¢	$5,982	0xdfaf18…
06-28 22:02:40	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	352	100¢	$351	0x7fbe0f…
06-28 22:02:11	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0xcba145…
06-25 06:03:05	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	539	97¢	$523	0x053a8f…
06-25 05:55:11	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x8c3a76…
06-25 05:39:26	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4ba516…
06-25 05:32:47	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	3,226	97¢	$3,132	0x330e98…
06-25 05:32:43	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	8,371	97¢	$8,119	0x3a337c…
06-24 23:26:02	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xcb7674…
06-24 23:19:46	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xc1d17d…
06-24 22:56:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x8370be…
06-24 21:51:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	309	94¢	$291	0x1f212d…
06-24 20:18:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	957	94¢	$900	0xf79bf6…
06-24 20:09:08	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2,500	94¢	$2,350	0x60b02c…
06-24 18:49:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x008683…
06-24 18:48:55	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x50a9fa…
06-24 18:43:20	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xeaffdb…
06-24 18:38:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xda54f3…
06-24 18:38:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x433c85…
06-24 18:38:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x42e496…
06-24 18:37:13	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xc1900a…
06-24 18:37:11	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x9beeb7…
06-24 18:37:11	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x259618…
06-24 18:37:10	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe65098…
06-24 18:37:08	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x190148…
06-24 18:37:02	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xa51d83…
06-24 18:37:02	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x82e1ee…
06-24 18:36:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf1aae5…
06-24 18:36:56	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x6278df…
06-24 18:36:55	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x9badba…
06-24 18:36:53	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xce7bbc…