Amusing-Substitution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$48

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved

151

Trades

6,412

lifetime

Volume

$294.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 07-21 15:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

59% 57% $-80

Politics

20% 100% +$20

Crypto

20% 97% +$13

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 352 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	145	$42.6K	21,787	21,787	+0	open	—	05-13 18:58
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	68	$23.0K	11,647	11,647	+0	open	—	04-25 06:06
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	30	$15.8K	7,972	7,972	+0	open	—	04-23 07:45
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	30	$15.1K	7,625	7,625	+0	open	—	04-23 07:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	33	$14.4K	7,242	7,241	+2	open	—	04-21 03:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	33	$12.0K	6,056	6,056	+0	open	—	07-21 06:49
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	30	$10.3K	5,387	5,387	+0	open	—	07-16 07:49
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	20	$9.8K	4,916	4,916	+0	open	—	04-20 13:45
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	19	$9.3K	4,789	4,789	+0	open	—	04-24 03:55
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	22	$9.2K	4,722	4,722	+0	open	—	04-24 08:24
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	14	$5.2K	2,740	2,740	+0	open	—	07-21 19:05
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	12	$4.7K	2,356	2,356	+0	open	—	07-20 11:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	67	$4.0K	4,753	4,752	+0	open	—	05-18 11:53
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	11	$3.2K	1,666	1,666	+0	open	—	07-18 06:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	54	$3.1K	3,860	3,860	+0	open	—	05-10 22:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	12	$3.1K	1,603	1,603	+0	open	—	05-14 17:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	102	$2.8K	3,173	3,173	+0	open	—	05-19 20:26
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	44	$2.7K	2,448	2,447	+0	open	—	05-29 17:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	8	$2.6K	1,339	1,339	+0	open	—	05-11 06:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	33	$2.5K	2,591	2,591	+0	No	+$20	05-04 20:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	10	$2.5K	1,264	1,264	+0	open	—	05-09 09:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	29	$2.4K	2,677	2,677	+0	open	—	05-18 08:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	28	$2.4K	2,048	2,676	-628	open	—	05-29 19:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	6	$2.3K	1,172	1,172	+0	open	—	04-23 01:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	26	$2.3K	2,461	2,448	+13	open	—	06-14 16:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	37	$2.3K	2,675	2,675	+0	open	—	05-24 11:12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	27	$2.2K	2,228	2,228	+0	open	—	05-10 18:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	25	$2.0K	1,775	1,975	-200	open	—	05-20 19:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$2.0K	1,098	1,098	+0	open	—	04-27 16:06
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$1.7K	899	899	+0	open	—	04-25 03:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 19:05:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	376	96¢	$360	0x025a98…
07-21 19:01:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	376	96¢	$361	0x721d05…
07-21 15:54:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	346	96¢	$332	0xcd6697…
07-21 15:50:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	346	96¢	$332	0xb10508…
07-21 06:49:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	356	99¢	$352	0x955c61…
07-21 06:47:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	356	99¢	$352	0xc49280…
07-20 11:54:09	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	365	99¢	$361	0x4d5877…
07-20 11:49:57	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	365	99¢	$362	0xa4cff6…
07-20 10:59:03	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	311	99¢	$307	0xc47fd2…
07-20 10:56:16	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	311	99¢	$308	0xc8d53e…
07-20 00:44:51	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	403	99¢	$399	0x07f9fe…
07-20 00:43:13	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	403	99¢	$399	0x103609…
07-20 00:23:25	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	385	99¢	$381	0x0af9e0…
07-20 00:19:04	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	385	99¢	$381	0x8b36a0…
07-19 18:40:06	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	366	99¢	$362	0xc6cb4d…
07-19 18:36:16	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	366	99¢	$363	0x76cf37…
07-19 09:23:46	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	410	99¢	$408	0xa3009f…
07-19 09:19:28	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	410	100¢	$408	0xc0d2d2…
07-19 06:34:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$35	0x45fa02…
07-19 06:23:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	451	99¢	$445	0x68f2e9…
07-19 06:20:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	486	99¢	$481	0x681c17…
07-19 04:33:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	461	99¢	$456	0xe008ac…
07-19 04:29:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	461	99¢	$456	0x8d3f59…
07-19 02:58:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	478	99¢	$472	0x82bb0a…
07-19 02:54:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	478	99¢	$472	0xeba36c…
07-18 19:30:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	354	99¢	$350	0x5a09f7…
07-18 19:27:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	354	99¢	$350	0x72b0c0…
07-18 19:05:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	228	99¢	$225	0x9f3018…
07-18 19:02:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	228	99¢	$225	0xd8c785…
07-18 15:49:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$55	0x5d1c7a…
07-18 15:46:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0x0fced4…
07-18 15:26:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	287	99¢	$283	0x759059…
07-18 15:23:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	287	99¢	$283	0x0e9c79…
07-18 06:41:55	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	388	97¢	$376	0xa80e08…
07-18 06:39:31	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	388	97¢	$376	0x1576f5…
07-17 00:13:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	471	99¢	$466	0x5ebbed…
07-17 00:08:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	471	99¢	$466	0x71dff7…
07-16 21:58:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	475	99¢	$470	0xd75440…
07-16 21:54:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	475	99¢	$471	0xc3f357…
07-16 19:05:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	310	99¢	$307	0xaa619b…
07-16 19:02:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	310	99¢	$307	0xabe8e1…
07-16 18:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	473	99¢	$467	0xf43db4…
07-16 18:36:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	473	99¢	$468	0x0daac3…
07-16 17:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	421	99¢	$416	0x4d3338…
07-16 17:25:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	421	99¢	$416	0x348e7e…
07-16 16:16:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	442	99¢	$437	0x0a5e33…
07-16 16:13:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	442	99¢	$438	0x094281…
07-16 15:24:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	459	99¢	$454	0xe5bd2c…
07-16 15:22:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	459	99¢	$454	0xa28ee4…
07-16 13:46:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	301	99¢	$297	0x2b3917…
07-16 13:43:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	301	99¢	$297	0xe350c6…
07-16 10:19:46	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	481	96¢	$463	0xa66d1d…
07-16 10:15:20	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	481	96¢	$463	0xb94ab2…
07-16 07:49:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	281	96¢	$270	0x71a68f…
07-16 07:46:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	281	96¢	$271	0x19ca6d…
07-14 20:06:38	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	245	99¢	$243	0x4de033…
07-14 19:53:01	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x990683…
07-14 19:52:58	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x209b57…
07-14 19:49:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	278	99¢	$276	0xe0e879…
07-14 09:40:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	299	96¢	$287	0x51adb3…
07-14 09:37:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	299	96¢	$288	0xe13177…
07-14 03:09:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	310	96¢	$299	0x153934…
07-14 03:04:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	310	96¢	$299	0x0afde2…
07-13 11:26:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	335	96¢	$322	0x6bcac8…
07-13 11:23:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	335	96¢	$322	0xacc944…
07-13 11:10:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	311	96¢	$299	0x7374a1…
07-13 11:06:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	311	96¢	$299	0x06d043…
07-13 10:45:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	315	96¢	$302	0x58b7fb…
07-13 10:43:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	315	96¢	$303	0xb24cb1…
07-09 02:19:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	298	96¢	$285	0xe5711d…
07-09 02:16:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	298	96¢	$285	0x8932e1…
07-09 00:20:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	337	96¢	$323	0x55633d…
07-09 00:16:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	337	96¢	$323	0xf4068d…
07-08 23:43:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	341	96¢	$327	0xd4489e…
07-08 23:41:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	341	96¢	$327	0xc930a2…
07-08 20:40:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	310	96¢	$297	0x60ff11…
07-08 20:38:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	310	96¢	$297	0x6d4c60…
07-07 09:39:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	349	96¢	$335	0x5c068b…
07-07 09:36:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	349	96¢	$335	0x4a2e05…
07-06 22:37:25	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	277	99¢	$274	0xcf1c45…
07-06 22:34:19	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	277	99¢	$274	0xf32a04…
07-06 16:00:22	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	254	99¢	$251	0x6006cb…
07-06 15:58:17	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	254	99¢	$251	0x4f91ca…
07-06 09:58:55	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	284	99¢	$280	0xf8634d…
07-06 09:56:58	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	284	99¢	$281	0xdb64f7…
07-05 09:29:50	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	314	98¢	$306	0x9b22e7…
07-05 09:25:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	314	98¢	$307	0x9ecafc…
07-05 07:08:38	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	221	98¢	$217	0x447dc5…
07-05 06:55:52	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	221	98¢	$217	0xdbd425…
06-29 16:47:47	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	321	96¢	$307	0x9650f0…
06-29 16:44:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	321	96¢	$308	0xfc3557…
06-29 14:44:49	sol updown 15m 1782743400	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf549b8…
06-29 14:44:40	xrp updown 15m 1782743400	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd08c93…
06-29 14:44:25	sol updown 15m 1782743400	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x22b44a…
06-29 14:44:20	xrp updown 15m 1782743400	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x53ce30…
06-29 14:40:02	doge updown 5m 1782743700	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x06ebf9…
06-29 14:39:53	eth updown 5m 1782743700	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7afe27…
06-29 14:39:20	doge updown 5m 1782743700	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x1eeda2…
06-29 14:39:13	eth updown 5m 1782743700	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xb8cc36…
06-29 14:34:47	xrp updown 5m 1782743400	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x9ecda6…