Ideal-Toga — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

695

lifetime

Volume

$2.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 07-02 20:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$0

Other

48% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	71	$306	156	156	+0	open	—	04-03 12:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	16	$244	143	121	+22	open	—	04-29 20:29
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	36	$130	122	12	+111	open	—	06-30 22:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	7	$116	59	59	+0	open	—	05-22 14:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	18	$79	44	41	+3	open	—	04-24 15:53
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	29	$72	68	10	+57	open	—	03-09 21:52
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	58	$66	71	0	+71	open	—	03-16 20:31
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$61	62	0	+62	open	—	05-30 05:25
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	25	$49	209	209	+0	open	—	06-18 03:23
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	36	$49	41	41	+0	open	—	04-03 12:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	05-06 05:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$41	23	23	+0	open	—	06-23 15:34
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	9	$39	23	23	+0	open	—	04-06 00:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	36	$38	49	0	+49	open	—	03-02 03:08
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	3	$35	38	0	+38	open	—	06-29 02:41
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$33	18	18	+0	open	—	03-20 07:37
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	19	$28	30	0	+30	open	—	04-18 17:53
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?	3	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	04-03 12:03
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	8	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	06-12 17:03
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	23	$27	23	5	+18	open	—	03-04 08:18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	13	$27	35	0	+35	open	—	05-22 22:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	8	$24	29	0	+29	open	—	06-12 18:03
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	5	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	04-18 16:03
mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	7	$21	14	8	+6	open	—	03-20 08:48
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	7	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	06-17 23:35
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	19	$19	19	0	+19	open	—	03-09 12:28
will sarah knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	18	$18	23	0	+23	open	—	03-16 18:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	8	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	06-18 03:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$15	28	0	+28	open	—	05-23 08:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	5	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	05-22 15:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 20:17:56	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x22d188…
07-02 20:11:46	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8dc7d6…
07-02 20:00:55	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x12f241…
07-01 01:02:35	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x038a18…
06-30 22:56:14	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x897435…
06-30 20:10:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x6f827c…
06-30 20:09:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7bcc9b…
06-30 19:56:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x398783…
06-30 19:56:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x05a1c8…
06-29 07:02:43	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x63ff32…
06-29 06:38:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x618671…
06-29 06:25:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd2a465…
06-29 02:41:11	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x06825b…
06-29 01:16:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x2f7594…
06-28 22:03:05	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x79a456…
06-28 22:02:40	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd60327…
06-28 22:02:11	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x699c76…
06-25 05:39:28	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x802b40…
06-24 16:24:08	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xff7ecc…
06-24 16:23:37	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xe6fe75…
06-23 15:34:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x1b27b5…
06-23 15:33:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0xe8cd30…
06-21 12:26:08	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x677a9d…
06-20 19:06:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x24dc9d…
06-20 18:14:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x251ce4…
06-20 18:10:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc6251f…
06-20 18:09:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9a44e5…
06-20 03:53:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xdee76d…
06-19 01:19:14	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd5fd01…
06-19 00:56:59	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$3	0x623b3c…
06-18 18:33:53	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6c379a…
06-18 18:33:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xbab016…
06-18 16:39:50	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xd7fdaf…
06-18 10:28:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb1d1b4…
06-18 04:56:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4ea7db…
06-18 04:56:28	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x770d29…
06-18 04:56:28	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x03c3df…
06-18 04:41:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x535b5d…
06-18 03:23:19	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$3	0xa8f2a3…
06-18 03:21:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x061502…
06-18 03:19:13	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x3b27dc…
06-18 03:18:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	83¢	$7	0xc21109…
06-18 01:19:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x76192e…
06-18 00:11:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x2038bc…
06-18 00:08:34	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x681619…
06-18 00:08:34	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x381857…
06-18 00:08:32	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc7eca5…
06-18 00:08:32	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8656c4…
06-18 00:07:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf9fb20…
06-17 23:54:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x899acf…
06-17 23:50:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb60464…
06-17 23:35:37	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9586ca…
06-17 23:35:35	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x0a1509…
06-17 23:33:04	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x2ebfa9…
06-17 23:04:05	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$2	0xf5a635…
06-17 22:57:01	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x08f3c4…
06-17 22:31:37	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xe3263f…
06-17 22:31:01	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xef100e…
06-17 22:30:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb3d818…
06-17 20:55:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x893e13…
06-17 20:55:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5f6e49…
06-17 20:55:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xf207bf…
06-17 20:54:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0xc23bd7…
06-17 20:53:28	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7fa19a…
06-17 20:52:28	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6210c7…
06-17 20:51:46	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5de483…
06-17 20:27:17	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x90253e…
06-17 20:00:08	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6428b2…
06-17 18:47:22	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x30469a…
06-17 17:39:16	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x645dff…
06-17 17:33:26	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xef2b75…
06-17 16:46:17	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xfa004f…
06-17 16:32:19	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4ea55e…
06-17 16:26:23	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0xf7088f…
06-17 16:26:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x3cfaee…
06-17 16:17:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xbcd06e…
06-17 16:17:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0779d7…
06-17 16:17:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x312175…
06-17 16:16:59	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xd39a06…
06-17 16:16:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x052561…
06-17 16:16:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x3a2b81…
06-17 15:03:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0bce98…
06-17 15:01:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x3da54c…
06-17 15:01:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb04efa…
06-17 06:49:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xff39e4…
06-17 03:13:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7c00ec…
06-17 00:50:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x76b36f…
06-17 00:50:05	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc6f059…
06-17 00:50:05	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x9c9a73…
06-17 00:33:46	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xcc03c4…
06-17 00:28:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd9c0a5…
06-17 00:28:04	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x637683…
06-17 00:28:02	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3e38c8…
06-17 00:28:01	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xea9164…
06-15 22:42:22	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$3	0x52a8c1…
06-15 16:38:01	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x7d1901…
06-13 17:13:52	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	12¢	$21	0x3fb15c…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x839339…
06-12 18:03:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xf269b8…
06-12 18:03:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xed419c…