Realized P&L
+$24.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$7.56K
Hit rate
74.6%
Resolved
115
Trades
1,285
lifetime
Volume
$475.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$370
Open exposure
$69.1K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-28 12:19
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 63 days
Categories
Other
72% 67% +$23,606
Politics
18% 57% -$1,966
Tech
9% 80% +$3,008
Crypto
0% 50% +$40
Sports
0% 75% +$217
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
24 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +30,004 $20,761 98¢ $29.4K +$8,612 10-01 04:16
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +15,090 $14,498 98¢ $14.8K +$313 09-26 16:04
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +4,600 $4,425 98¢ $4.5K +$94 10-28 12:19
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,706 $2,897 87¢ $3.2K +$314 10-02 01:43
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +2,810 $2,605 98¢ $2.7K +$145 09-06 17:39
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +4,631 $1,983 56¢ $2.6K +$632 10-27 23:31
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +9,018 $4,375 29¢ $2.6K -$1,805 10-01 21:25
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +3,100 $2,483 82¢ $2.5K +$59 10-22 11:08
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +4,600 $1,938 30¢ $1.4K -$558 10-27 23:31
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +3,778 $2,110 29¢ $1.1K -$1,015 09-19 19:03
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,299 $814 82¢ $1.1K +$252 10-01 22:03
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +1,187 $679 74¢ $880 +$201 09-17 08:39
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes +2,968 $1,062 23¢ $681 -$381 09-13 00:14
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +500 $417 92¢ $462 +$46 09-29 21:41
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +500 $233 72¢ $357 +$125 09-17 13:07
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +3,000 $50 6¢ $172 +$122 10-28 02:07
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +200 $175 73¢ $145 -$30 08-30 01:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? No +209 $100 56¢ $116 +$16 09-05 05:02
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +3,000 $170 3¢ $100 -$70 10-28 00:29
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? No +98 $46 99¢ $97 +$51 05-22 14:29
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No +56 $54 98¢ $55 +$1 09-05 03:36
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes -2,600 -$405 1¢ $-27 +$377 05-14 07:41
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? No +21 $19 99¢ $21 +$1 09-06 01:21
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No +10 $8 98¢ $10 +$2 07-21 12:30
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? No +8 $8 98¢ $8 +$0 09-05 03:37
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -500 -$55 0¢ $-1 +$54 05-08 13:03