Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$7,325
$36 in 24h
Trades
123
Unique wallets
51
Liquidity
$7,878
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 07-21 05:48
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.7¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $48
vs crowd: 1% YES on $4.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | — | $198 | $198 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | — | $2.5K | $2.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $27 | $788 | $761 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 29 | $1 | $628 | $627 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | — | $48 | $48 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | — | $762 | $762 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | — | $122 | $122 |
| Median | 12 | $1 | $144 | $143 |
| Below median | 6 | $0 | $49 | $49 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $457 | $457 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $75 | $75 |
| unranked | 21 | $27 | $2.5K | $2.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | +1,398 | $1,347 | $1,347 | 1 | 07-15 21:31 |
| Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | +800 | $27 | $27 | 3 | 07-20 12:53 |
| Testy-Operator 0x80a4…22cc | No | +400 | $380 | $380 | 1 | 06-26 06:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | +196 | $186 | $186 | 2 | 07-07 05:55 |
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +128 | $122 | $122 | 1 | 07-14 16:49 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +82 | $77 | $77 | 14 | 06-20 01:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c11…ae80 | No | +55 | $52 | $52 | 3 | 07-01 14:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xb1d7…6f3e | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-07 16:31 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | No | +27 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 05-30 15:54 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | +6 | $5 | $1,100 | 25 | 07-21 05:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-21 05:48 |
| Glass-Asparagus-Advance 0x3566…10fe | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 06:42 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 05:48:58 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x88835f… |
| 07-21 05:48:58 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x88835f… |
| 07-20 12:53:03 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x19364a… |
| 07-20 12:53:03 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x19364a… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | (anonymous) 0x004a…6b7e | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | (anonymous) 0x2324…6992 | No | SELL | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | (anonymous) 0x7d9d…08ae | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | (anonymous) 0xef12…7f3d | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 499 | 3¢ | $15 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | (anonymous) 0x8f15…5fbd | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-15 21:31:58 | Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | BUY | 1,398 | 96¢ | $1,347 | 0xa48b80… |
| 07-14 16:49:08 | (anonymous) 0xb8d8…8166 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x30a650… |
| 07-14 16:49:08 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 128 | 96¢ | $122 | 0x30a650… |
| 07-14 16:49:08 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 78 | 96¢ | $74 | 0x30a650… |
| 07-12 11:25:25 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x4100b1… |
| 07-12 11:25:25 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4100b1… |
| 07-12 11:21:40 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x68843d… |
| 07-12 11:21:40 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x68843d… |
| 07-12 11:18:29 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb412d2… |
| 07-12 11:18:29 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb412d2… |
| 07-12 03:29:01 | (anonymous) 0x3bd4…57f4 | No | SELL | 41 | 96¢ | $39 | 0x264ecb… |
| 07-12 03:29:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 48 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x264ecb… |
| 07-12 03:29:01 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x264ecb… |
| 07-11 23:45:56 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x96c4fb… |
| 07-11 23:45:56 | (anonymous) 0xd438…e0f8 | No | SELL | 11 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x96c4fb… |
| 07-11 23:45:56 | (anonymous) 0x3bd4…57f4 | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0x96c4fb… |
| 07-11 14:31:23 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…82a1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x66f0da… |
| 07-11 14:31:23 | (anonymous) 0xd438…e0f8 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x66f0da… |
| 07-09 11:09:35 | (anonymous) 0xd438…e0f8 | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x634f79… |
| 07-09 11:09:35 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x634f79… |
| 07-09 00:17:23 | (anonymous) 0xd438…e0f8 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xba4d1f… |
| 07-09 00:17:23 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xba4d1f… |
| 07-08 06:58:26 | (anonymous) 0xd71b…38b4 | No | SELL | 27 | 95¢ | $26 | 0x90e87d… |
| 07-08 06:58:26 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 27 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x90e87d… |
| 07-07 16:31:28 | (anonymous) 0xb1d7…6f3e | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x6f9844… |
| 07-07 16:31:28 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x6f9844… |
| 07-07 12:54:34 | (anonymous) 0xd71b…38b4 | No | SELL | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0xdcca88… |
| 07-07 12:54:34 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 43 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xdcca88… |
| 07-07 12:54:34 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xdcca88… |
| 07-07 05:55:20 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 86 | 95¢ | $82 | 0x5df8c4… |
| 07-07 05:55:20 | (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | BUY | 86 | 95¢ | $82 | 0x5df8c4… |
| 07-07 05:48:59 | (anonymous) 0x48a3…d0c6 | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x762a43… |
| 07-07 05:48:59 | (anonymous) 0xc089…3a18 | No | SELL | 52 | 95¢ | $49 | 0x762a43… |
| 07-07 05:48:59 | (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | BUY | 110 | 95¢ | $105 | 0x762a43… |
| 07-07 05:48:59 | (anonymous) 0x99a1…40bd | No | SELL | 8 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x762a43… |
| 07-01 14:14:13 | (anonymous) 0x9c11…ae80 | No | BUY | 4 | 95¢ | $4 | 0x0b904f… |
| 07-01 14:14:13 | (anonymous) 0xd71b…38b4 | No | BUY | 49 | 95¢ | $47 | 0x0b904f… |
| 07-01 14:14:13 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0x0b904f… |
| 07-01 14:14:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 47 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x0b904f… |
| 07-01 10:13:01 | (anonymous) 0x9c11…ae80 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x5b38fe… |
| 07-01 10:13:01 | Double-Gaiters 0x564a…af9b | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x5b38fe… |
| 06-30 07:54:44 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xf1374d… |
| 06-30 07:54:44 | (anonymous) 0x9c11…ae80 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xf1374d… |
| 06-29 20:19:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xbffab8… |
| 06-29 20:19:01 | (anonymous) 0x99a1…40bd | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xbffab8… |
| 06-29 20:16:34 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 15 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x159651… |
| 06-29 20:16:34 | (anonymous) 0x99a1…40bd | No | SELL | 15 | 95¢ | $14 | 0x159651… |
| 06-29 06:48:22 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 56 | 95¢ | $53 | 0xf25422… |
| 06-29 06:48:22 | (anonymous) 0x99a1…40bd | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xf25422… |
| 06-29 06:48:22 | (anonymous) 0xe94d…f066 | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xf25422… |
| 06-26 08:09:26 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x725c8a… |
| 06-26 08:09:26 | Double-Gaiters 0x564a…af9b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x725c8a… |
| 06-26 06:42:08 | Glass-Asparagus-Advance 0x3566…10fe | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9263d6… |
| 06-26 06:42:08 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9263d6… |
| 06-26 06:26:22 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 196 | 95¢ | $186 | 0x7c4b0d… |
| 06-26 06:26:22 | (anonymous) 0x8570…52b5 | No | SELL | 48 | 95¢ | $45 | 0x7c4b0d… |
| 06-26 06:26:22 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x7c4b0d… |
| 06-26 06:26:22 | Testy-Operator 0x80a4…22cc | No | BUY | 400 | 95¢ | $380 | 0x7c4b0d… |
| 06-26 06:26:22 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x7c4b0d… |
| 06-26 06:26:22 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x7c4b0d… |
| 06-24 21:35:59 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 37 | 95¢ | $35 | 0xb5d7f7… |
| 06-24 21:35:59 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 37 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xb5d7f7… |
| 06-24 12:40:31 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 36 | 95¢ | $34 | 0xfe664c… |
| 06-24 12:40:31 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 36 | 95¢ | $34 | 0xfe664c… |
| 06-22 00:01:28 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | SELL | 37 | 94¢ | $35 | 0x9dc144… |
| 06-22 00:01:28 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 37 | 94¢ | $35 | 0x9dc144… |
| 06-21 19:54:58 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 53 | 94¢ | $50 | 0x21b9cb… |
| 06-21 19:54:58 | Growing-Way 0x832b…5c91 | No | SELL | 53 | 94¢ | $50 | 0x21b9cb… |
| 06-21 12:01:22 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0xe8f0ea… |
| 06-21 12:01:22 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | SELL | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0xe8f0ea… |
| 06-20 09:42:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 44 | 95¢ | $42 | 0xc9a1a5… |
| 06-20 09:42:01 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 44 | 95¢ | $42 | 0xc9a1a5… |
| 06-20 08:35:34 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 31 | 95¢ | $30 | 0x78d1f9… |
| 06-20 08:35:34 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 31 | 95¢ | $30 | 0x78d1f9… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | (anonymous) 0x48a3…d0c6 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | (anonymous) 0x99a1…40bd | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | (anonymous) 0xc089…3a18 | No | BUY | 52 | 95¢ | $49 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | (anonymous) 0xe94d…f066 | No | BUY | 49 | 95¢ | $46 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | BUY | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 31 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 80 | 94¢ | $75 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 4 | 93¢ | $4 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | SELL | 800 | 95¢ | $758 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | (anonymous) 0xb8d8…8166 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $47 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-20 01:14:34 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 123 | 95¢ | $117 | 0x954bf5… |
| 06-19 12:44:52 | (anonymous) 0xe94d…f066 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x7a37a4… |
| 06-19 12:44:52 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x7a37a4… |
| 06-19 12:44:50 | (anonymous) 0x505e…7dda | No | SELL | 37 | 95¢ | $36 | 0xd5d326… |