Realized P&L
+$565
Unrealized P&L
-$375
Hit rate
63.4%
Resolved
472
Trades
1,830
lifetime
Volume
$147.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$80
Open exposure
$1.49K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-16
last 10-07 13:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Politics
83% 56% +$460
Other
16% 46% +$117
Crypto
1% 20% +$5
Sports
0% 67% -$17
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? Yes -650 -$260 44¢ $-289 -$29 10-07 12:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No -150 -$116 98¢ $-147 -$31 08-26 12:37
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No -150 -$106 97¢ $-146 -$41 08-26 12:37
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%? Yes -310 -$1 42¢ $-130 -$130 05-02 12:00
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No -100 -$90 98¢ $-98 -$8 05-21 22:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +60 $41 96¢ $58 +$17 07-02 06:37
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -50 -$47 99¢ $-49 -$3 05-28 14:18
US x China Military clash before 2027? No -50 -$47 98¢ $-49 -$2 07-15 12:42
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No -50 -$45 98¢ $-49 -$4 05-28 14:22
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No -50 -$47 97¢ $-49 -$2 04-30 03:32
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +50 $31 96¢ $48 +$17 06-22 09:06
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No -50 -$44 94¢ $-47 -$4 05-21 22:45
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +50 $35 94¢ $47 +$12 06-10 07:08
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +50 $43 92¢ $46 +$3 06-22 12:50
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? Yes -454 $132 9¢ $-41 -$172 08-09 07:30
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -40 -$35 97¢ $-39 -$4 06-19 07:02
will bitcoin hit 100k by september 30 2027 Yes +50 $34 50¢ $25 -$8 08-26 12:57
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? Yes +100 $20 13¢ $13 -$7 07-11 12:58
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +10 $9 99¢ $10 +$0 06-23 05:12
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No +10 $8 99¢ $10 +$2 07-02 07:04
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +10 $8 98¢ $10 +$2 07-02 06:49
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027? No +10 $8 98¢ $10 +$2 07-02 07:06
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +10 $5 98¢ $10 +$5 07-04 12:25
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +10 $9 98¢ $10 +$1 06-26 13:02
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +10 $8 98¢ $10 +$2 06-23 05:21
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +10 $8 97¢ $10 +$2 06-23 05:22
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? No +10 $9 97¢ $10 +$1 06-20 13:05
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 96¢ $10 +$2 06-27 06:31
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$1 06-23 06:01
will iran hold a presidential election by december 31 No +10 $8 96¢ $10 +$1 07-02 06:35