Complicated-Innovation 0x585bef…f4753f
cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$21.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$253
Hit rate
37.8%
Resolved
238
Trades
1,491
lifetime
Volume
$85.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$57
Open exposure
$2.34K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 10-09 00:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 63 days
Categories
Other
59% 35% -$12,739
Politics
19% 54% -$7,831
Crypto
12% 52% +$2,188
Sports
7% 60% -$3,278
Tech
3% 55% -$74
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No +394 $126 88¢ $347 +$221 04-28 18:36
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No +264 $93 98¢ $260 +$168 04-28 22:09
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +265 $181 82¢ $219 +$38 04-28 23:49
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No +205 $149 99¢ $202 +$53 04-28 19:43
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No +199 $131 84¢ $168 +$37 04-28 23:44
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No +333 $154 44¢ $148 -$6 04-28 22:01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +200 $114 65¢ $130 +$16 10-06 14:05
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No +104 $159 96¢ $100 -$60 04-28 17:12
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? No +100 $78 96¢ $96 +$18 04-28 18:40
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +100 $59 93¢ $93 +$34 04-28 18:20
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes +242 $191 36¢ $87 -$104 04-28 22:55
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No +207 $166 26¢ $53 -$113 04-28 17:19
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes +67 $43 77¢ $51 +$8 04-28 17:49
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +526 $199 9¢ $47 -$151 04-28 20:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +347 $97 12¢ $42 -$55 10-01 13:05
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? Yes +705 $59 5¢ $36 -$24 08-29 09:26
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +35 $32 92¢ $32 +$1 04-28 22:14
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Yes +223 $125 15¢ $32 -$93 04-28 23:42
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes +235 $169 11¢ $26 -$144 04-28 14:16
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +157 $35 15¢ $23 -$12 04-28 14:55
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No +21 -$153 97¢ $20 +$173 10-09 00:37
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +259 $111 7¢ $18 -$93 04-28 20:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $27 18¢ $18 -$10 05-05 23:10
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +100 $59 16¢ $16 -$42 05-20 00:50
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes +160 $64 9¢ $14 -$49 04-28 17:09
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No +15 $11 94¢ $14 +$3 04-28 20:39
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +60 $28 21¢ $13 -$15 04-28 21:01
Rippling IPO before 2027? Yes +272 $54 4¢ $12 -$42 04-28 22:45
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +208 $12 6¢ $12 -$1 10-05 16:33
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +56 $20 19¢ $10 -$10 04-28 13:28