Complicated-Innovation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.06K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

1.0%

Resolved

Trades

612

lifetime

Volume

$35.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 08-09 17:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

72% 0% $-76

Crypto

21% 0% $-430

Politics

5% 0% $-285

Sports

2% 50% $-268

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	44	$3.5K	6,260	408	+5,852	open	—	04-28 23:22
Chirayu Rana sued?	16	$3.0K	10,155	0	+10,155	open	—	05-18 07:42
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	20	$2.3K	4,154	1,031	+3,123	open	—	04-28 22:31
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	19	$1.9K	2,833	911	+1,921	open	—	04-28 23:06
James Comey arrested by April 29?	44	$1.8K	3,079	54	+3,025	open	—	04-28 23:46
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	11	$1.8K	2,184	738	+1,446	open	—	04-28 21:34
icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	55	$1.6K	3,759	0	+3,759	open	—	08-09 17:13
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	22	$1.1K	1,738	481	+1,256	No	$-430	04-28 21:36
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	9	$1.1K	827	502	+325	open	—	04-28 23:49
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	6	$907	1,432	0	+1,432	open	—	04-28 21:19
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	10	$629	989	60	+929	open	—	04-28 21:47
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on April 28?	16	$584	728	500	+228	open	—	04-28 17:16
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?	6	$576	838	187	+651	open	—	04-28 22:41
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	6	$559	617	0	+617	open	—	04-28 22:24
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	9	$553	848	316	+532	open	—	04-28 22:46
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	7	$498	300	300	+0	open	—	06-21 17:58
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	5	$461	530	0	+530	open	—	04-28 22:52
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?	18	$453	550	325	+225	open	—	04-28 14:53
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $147 Week of April 27 2026?	9	$445	488	375	+112	open	—	04-28 14:48
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$420	1,104	0	+1,104	open	—	04-28 20:39
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	6	$414	658	152	+505	Yes	$-286	04-28 19:49
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	11	$369	563	120	+443	open	—	03-13 20:45
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	8	$356	571	170	+401	open	—	04-28 22:00
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	6	$352	0	471	-471	open	—	06-05 03:20
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	3	$335	502	167	+335	open	—	04-28 21:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1?	7	$325	299	137	+162	open	—	04-28 23:42
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	2	$317	167	167	+0	open	—	04-28 22:46
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	1	$298	327	0	+327	open	—	04-28 23:05
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	5	$285	792	0	+792	Yes	$-285	04-28 21:52
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$276	373	0	+373	open	—	03-10 14:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 17:13:19	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	26	36¢	$9	0x722be3…
08-09 17:12:58	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	152	36¢	$55	0xb37368…
08-09 07:49:19	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	108	38¢	$41	0x9dbcfc…
08-08 23:18:49	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xfc51c9…
08-08 23:18:10	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xf67e5f…
08-08 16:46:28	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x08dd6c…
08-08 16:46:16	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x8e2b9c…
08-08 15:30:24	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	44	36¢	$16	0x8c103a…
08-08 15:30:12	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	156	36¢	$56	0x625c1d…
08-08 12:04:12	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xa3e701…
08-07 16:59:13	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xf499fb…
08-07 16:59:13	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	435	44¢	$190	0xedba49…
08-07 01:03:42	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	239	45¢	$108	0xfccf6b…
08-07 01:03:42	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xee70f6…
08-06 22:09:23	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	12	38¢	$5	0xce8ccf…
08-06 16:13:53	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	87	39¢	$34	0xc45c28…
08-06 15:39:06	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x08d136…
08-06 15:38:54	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	93	39¢	$36	0x30c706…
08-06 09:42:35	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x739810…
08-05 15:16:41	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0x8cbb3f…
08-05 15:16:38	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	85	43¢	$37	0xf53905…
08-05 12:45:36	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x675b8c…
08-02 07:28:08	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	79	42¢	$33	0x45cb6a…
07-31 12:35:05	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x0c9d91…
07-30 19:51:56	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x03e00c…
07-30 15:20:11	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	79	46¢	$36	0x759df2…
07-30 15:08:12	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	87	47¢	$41	0x2de806…
07-30 14:47:44	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x1f2296…
07-30 12:47:27	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	94	47¢	$44	0x92cd10…
07-29 20:30:32	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x069a72…
07-29 20:28:24	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	98	48¢	$47	0x288436…
07-29 20:27:36	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0x994d17…
07-29 20:27:33	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x57e00c…
07-29 20:20:53	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	38	49¢	$19	0x51843d…
07-29 19:10:48	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x8a88d5…
07-28 00:10:25	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0xe511cc…
07-28 00:00:07	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x93dcec…
07-27 23:58:13	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x4e384f…
07-27 23:57:31	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x5e428a…
07-27 23:57:30	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xec690d…
07-27 23:55:51	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x53ed5b…
07-26 14:49:19	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x26bb61…
07-23 16:46:01	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	115	48¢	$55	0xb1fd08…
07-22 13:50:00	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	39	47¢	$19	0x10442e…
07-22 13:48:58	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	77	48¢	$37	0xbeacde…
06-21 17:58:43	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	SELL	300	97¢	$291	0xcce463…
06-21 16:52:01	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	BUY	108	69¢	$74	0x86d90b…
06-21 16:51:55	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x9965a7…
06-21 16:51:44	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0xcff503…
06-21 16:51:25	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	BUY	63	69¢	$43	0x7ae594…
06-21 16:51:13	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	BUY	31	69¢	$22	0x070a7d…
06-21 16:51:08	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	BUY	63	69¢	$43	0x6cdb5b…
06-21 16:03:13	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 team total home 0pt5	Under	BUY	2,041	4¢	$80	0x046048…
06-21 15:21:01	cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21	Team Falcons	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x89ba3b…
06-15 14:55:39	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xcee919…
06-15 14:55:28	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x9704cc…
06-15 14:55:16	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	17	55¢	$10	0x94c854…
06-15 14:55:10	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	33	55¢	$18	0x6a50ce…
06-15 08:30:54	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	101	73¢	$74	0x8fac8f…
06-08 07:03:10	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x3c7881…
06-08 07:01:51	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xf629f9…
06-05 04:55:12	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	185	72¢	$133	0xbebbd0…
06-05 03:20:52	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	76¢	$89	0xf053f1…
06-05 02:46:06	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	34	72¢	$24	0xb2de54…
06-05 02:43:22	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	75¢	$63	0x784a6a…
06-04 21:27:16	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x488cf1…
06-04 21:25:40	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x04ce05…
06-04 21:23:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	75¢	$18	0x6b09f4…
06-04 21:22:49	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	74¢	$174	0x895549…
05-19 15:24:24	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	199	12¢	$24	0x3b86be…
05-19 15:18:11	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xcd0215…
05-18 07:42:24	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	76	28¢	$21	0x58f2e4…
05-18 07:02:29	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	124	28¢	$35	0x68c3f4…
05-16 13:47:55	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0xd8341c…
05-15 15:33:20	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	135	30¢	$41	0x41cb62…
05-15 15:31:28	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0x11e08d…
05-15 15:31:27	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xbfc2be…
05-15 15:31:27	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x0e3333…
05-15 15:31:25	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xf832bc…
05-15 15:31:23	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0xdd5703…
05-15 15:31:23	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x7701b8…
05-15 15:31:23	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	8,598	31¢	$2,640	0x6c8e24…
05-15 15:31:23	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x02e7cc…
05-13 15:07:16	Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xd94c06…
05-13 14:51:22	Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	284	12¢	$34	0x4e5b16…
05-13 14:34:57	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x032599…
05-13 14:15:43	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	SELL	157	98¢	$154	0xf46e9a…
05-13 09:48:39	Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	62¢	$10	0x5feea4…
05-13 09:04:57	Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0x3e3d2c…
05-09 14:37:41	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0b35f2…
05-09 14:36:17	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x646721…
05-02 13:33:38	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	223	11¢	$25	0xf4e379…
05-01 21:39:12	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	37	10¢	$4	0x6b8561…
05-01 21:39:06	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xfded29…
05-01 13:10:56	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	500	24¢	$120	0xddf591…
04-28 23:56:02	James Comey arrested by April 28?	Yes	BUY	115	10¢	$11	0x80636d…
04-28 23:54:44	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	108	7¢	$8	0x619dff…
04-28 23:53:14	James Comey arrested by April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x06dbac…
04-28 23:49:46	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	39	11¢	$4	0x98d68d…
04-28 23:49:44	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	SELL	60	89¢	$53	0xcfa4be…