Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?
open
Total volume
$46,946
$260 in 24h
Trades
257
Unique wallets
85
Liquidity
$1,396
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-31
last 08-10 21:15
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 14 | $3 | $24.4K | $24.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $20 | $3.1K | $3.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 22 | $416 | $1.5K | $1.1K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 40 | $633 | $339 | +$295 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 7 | $71 | $20.3K | $20.3K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $6 | $3 | +$3 |
| Median | 12 | $0 | $2.7K | $2.7K |
| Below median | 14 | $147 | $4.7K | $4.6K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $37 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $315 | $315 |
| unranked | 35 | $806 | $190 | +$616 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | +8,374 | $7,925 | $7,925 | 2 | 07-25 18:54 |
| Chubby-Trust 0xa0e9…1f00 | Yes | +3,406 | $295 | $295 | 8 | 06-23 08:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x17da…31f3 | Yes | +2,500 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-05 17:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x65a7…a216 | Yes | +2,151 | $120 | $120 | 1 | 08-01 18:30 |
| Astonishing-Radio 0xc752…62e1 | No | +1,496 | $1,354 | $1,354 | 5 | 07-01 15:42 |
| Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | +1,231 | $1,096 | $12,328 | 17 | 08-10 21:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x0aab…931d | Yes | +1,073 | $107 | $107 | 7 | 07-17 07:30 |
| Intent-Beck 0x08c9…a2ef | No | +700 | $651 | $651 | 1 | 06-05 19:16 |
| Mixed-Offer 0x69be…c807 | Yes | +497 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-10 13:18 |
| Slushy-Corral 0x2aa0…ee01 | No | +352 | $310 | $310 | 1 | 06-30 11:27 |
| Petty-Archaeology 0x6f2a…de7d | Yes | +330 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 07-20 19:31 |
| Second-Hand-Fishmonger 0xd60a…5a90 | Yes | +297 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-20 07:23 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +243 | $223 | $223 | 3 | 07-01 20:48 |
| Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | +200 | $186 | $186 | 3 | 07-07 19:43 |
| Triangular-Increase 0x66a5…56cb | Yes | +200 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 06-08 03:27 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +173 | $166 | $166 | 7 | 08-02 22:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x210c…7625 | Yes | +167 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-20 14:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ad6…1c72 | No | +133 | $125 | $125 | 2 | 06-20 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x8aa2…7045 | Yes | +130 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-19 18:58 |
| Decimal-Precipitation 0x5b71…5f5a | Yes | +125 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-17 22:28 |
| Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | +91 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-28 11:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x6601…24bd | Yes | +71 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-06 22:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b33…c467 | Yes | +70 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-07 17:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x4760…936f | Yes | +59 | $5 | $5 | 3 | 07-08 02:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x3fb2…fac4 | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 1 | 06-10 09:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x61e4…2df4 | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-18 02:39 |
| Private-Soil 0x3234…8400 | Yes | +25 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-11 07:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xf5ea…7cae | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 08-01 18:30 |
| Elegant-End 0x5226…8554 | No | +13 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 07-03 18:43 |
| Broken-Landform 0x09a7…89fd | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-11 06:49 |
| Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | +10 | $9 | $18 | 3 | 06-23 17:43 |
| Playful-Badger 0x86ba…3694 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-02 11:51 |
| Hoarse-Monk 0x86fc…4266 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 07-11 23:11 |
| Stable-Patch 0x3a30…99ec | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-26 09:01 |
| Fabulous-Clothing 0xddf6…6b37 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $3 | 2 | 07-15 14:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-07 17:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-13 12:50 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 21:15:01 | (anonymous) 0x8c40…40da | Yes | SELL | 435 | 4¢ | $16 | 0x3a0c90… |
| 08-10 21:15:01 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | SELL | 435 | 96¢ | $419 | 0x3a0c90… |
| 08-08 10:26:55 | Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | SELL | 80 | 96¢ | $77 | 0x572981… |
| 08-08 10:26:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 185 | 96¢ | $177 | 0x572981… |
| 08-08 10:26:55 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | SELL | 165 | 96¢ | $159 | 0x572981… |
| 08-08 10:26:55 | Breakable-Dynamics 0x7a9c…97a4 | Yes | SELL | 430 | 4¢ | $17 | 0x572981… |
| 08-05 21:13:20 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 94¢ | $3 | 0xff2b11… |
| 08-05 21:13:20 | Wavy-Parsley 0x101e…d4da | No | SELL | 3 | 94¢ | $3 | 0xff2b11… |
| 08-05 15:45:53 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x0de6d2… |
| 08-05 15:45:53 | (anonymous) 0x67ba…8ae6 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x0de6d2… |
| 08-05 15:45:53 | Trivial-Newsstand 0x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x0de6d2… |
| 08-02 22:23:24 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 15 | 95¢ | $14 | 0xd9b8b5… |
| 08-02 22:23:24 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 15 | 95¢ | $14 | 0xd9b8b5… |
| 08-01 18:30:21 | (anonymous) 0xf5ea…7cae | No | BUY | 14 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xbc8d36… |
| 08-01 18:30:21 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 1,823 | 94¢ | $1,719 | 0xbc8d36… |
| 08-01 18:30:21 | (anonymous) 0x65a7…a216 | Yes | BUY | 2,151 | 6¢ | $120 | 0xbc8d36… |
| 08-01 18:30:21 | Scaly-Arena 0x0aa0…04a3 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbc8d36… |
| 08-01 18:30:21 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 200 | 95¢ | $190 | 0xbc8d36… |
| 08-01 18:30:21 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 68 | 5¢ | $3 | 0xbc8d36… |
| 08-01 18:30:21 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xbc8d36… |
| 08-01 13:01:15 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 19 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x662c14… |
| 08-01 13:01:15 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 19 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x662c14… |
| 08-01 07:44:50 | (anonymous) 0xf5ea…7cae | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x0a08ef… |
| 08-01 07:44:50 | Naive-Misfit 0x290d…ff8d | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x0a08ef… |
| 08-01 07:17:24 | Naive-Misfit 0x290d…ff8d | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x453d23… |
| 08-01 07:17:24 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x453d23… |
| 07-31 22:10:45 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 21 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe2efa7… |
| 07-31 22:10:45 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xe2efa7… |
| 07-30 22:43:08 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 21 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa65625… |
| 07-30 22:43:08 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xa65625… |
| 07-28 11:22:37 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | SELL | 91 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x109708… |
| 07-28 11:22:37 | Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | BUY | 91 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x109708… |
| 07-26 09:01:06 | Scaly-Arena 0x0aa0…04a3 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x89e7e9… |
| 07-26 09:01:06 | Stable-Patch 0x3a30…99ec | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x89e7e9… |
| 07-26 09:01:06 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 28 | 96¢ | $27 | 0x89e7e9… |
| 07-25 18:54:28 | Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | BUY | 3,016 | 94¢ | $2,835 | 0x258a6f… |
| 07-25 18:54:28 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | SELL | 3,352 | 94¢ | $3,150 | 0x258a6f… |
| 07-25 18:54:28 | Ironclad-Solicitor 0x0ba8…e4e4 | Yes | SELL | 335 | 6¢ | $20 | 0x258a6f… |
| 07-25 13:19:36 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | SELL | 48 | 95¢ | $46 | 0x316fcb… |
| 07-25 13:19:36 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 48 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x316fcb… |
| 07-24 21:24:46 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 48 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x1a2de6… |
| 07-24 21:24:46 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 48 | 96¢ | $47 | 0x1a2de6… |
| 07-24 07:52:25 | (anonymous) 0x67dd…71c1 | No | SELL | 54 | 95¢ | $51 | 0xe45998… |
| 07-24 07:52:25 | Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | BUY | 5,357 | 95¢ | $5,090 | 0xe45998… |
| 07-24 07:52:25 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | SELL | 861 | 95¢ | $818 | 0xe45998… |
| 07-22 17:50:13 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 861 | 94¢ | $809 | 0xe103ff… |
| 07-22 17:50:13 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 861 | 94¢ | $809 | 0xe103ff… |
| 07-21 22:04:28 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 1,860 | 94¢ | $1,748 | 0xd32986… |
| 07-21 22:04:28 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 1,860 | 94¢ | $1,748 | 0xd32986… |
| 07-21 20:27:54 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 91 | 94¢ | $85 | 0x0bd31c… |
| 07-21 20:27:54 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | BUY | 91 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x0bd31c… |
| 07-20 22:00:45 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 861 | 94¢ | $809 | 0x769478… |
| 07-20 22:00:45 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 861 | 94¢ | $809 | 0x769478… |
| 07-20 19:31:30 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 300 | 94¢ | $282 | 0xd4426b… |
| 07-20 19:31:30 | Petty-Archaeology 0x6f2a…de7d | Yes | BUY | 300 | 6¢ | $18 | 0xd4426b… |
| 07-20 14:27:49 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 167 | 94¢ | $157 | 0x73107f… |
| 07-20 14:27:49 | (anonymous) 0x210c…7625 | Yes | BUY | 167 | 6¢ | $10 | 0x73107f… |
| 07-20 12:57:24 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 1,165 | 94¢ | $1,095 | 0xe17f69… |
| 07-20 12:57:24 | Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | BUY | 1,165 | 94¢ | $1,095 | 0xe17f69… |
| 07-20 12:56:15 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 500 | 94¢ | $470 | 0x04e087… |
| 07-20 12:56:15 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | BUY | 500 | 94¢ | $470 | 0x04e087… |
| 07-20 12:56:09 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | BUY | 300 | 94¢ | $282 | 0x9eb5b6… |
| 07-20 12:56:09 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 300 | 94¢ | $282 | 0x9eb5b6… |
| 07-20 08:45:04 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | BUY | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0x174f34… |
| 07-20 08:45:04 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0x174f34… |
| 07-19 18:58:33 | Ironclad-Solicitor 0x0ba8…e4e4 | Yes | SELL | 130 | 7¢ | $9 | 0xd6d821… |
| 07-19 18:58:33 | (anonymous) 0x8aa2…7045 | Yes | BUY | 130 | 7¢ | $9 | 0xd6d821… |
| 07-19 13:11:25 | Ironclad-Solicitor 0x0ba8…e4e4 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb210ae… |
| 07-19 13:11:25 | Breakable-Dynamics 0x7a9c…97a4 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb210ae… |
| 07-18 22:07:01 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | BUY | 2,000 | 93¢ | $1,860 | 0x1b88d0… |
| 07-18 22:07:01 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 2,000 | 93¢ | $1,860 | 0x1b88d0… |
| 07-18 16:28:55 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | BUY | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0x842301… |
| 07-18 16:28:55 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 165 | 94¢ | $155 | 0x842301… |
| 07-18 16:28:55 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 35 | 94¢ | $33 | 0x842301… |
| 07-18 12:28:51 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0x89b1ee… |
| 07-18 12:28:51 | Sleepy-Council 0x3773…f0dd | No | BUY | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0x89b1ee… |
| 07-17 22:28:10 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 125 | 92¢ | $115 | 0xa90d9b… |
| 07-17 22:28:10 | Decimal-Precipitation 0x5b71…5f5a | Yes | BUY | 125 | 8¢ | $10 | 0xa90d9b… |
| 07-17 07:30:04 | (anonymous) 0x0aab…931d | Yes | BUY | 125 | 8¢ | $10 | 0x4c137f… |
| 07-17 07:30:04 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 96 | 92¢ | $88 | 0x4c137f… |
| 07-17 07:30:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 21 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x4c137f… |
| 07-15 16:35:43 | Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x8b1ac2… |
| 07-15 16:35:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x8b1ac2… |
| 07-15 14:25:19 | Fabulous-Clothing 0xddf6…6b37 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x55486b… |
| 07-15 14:25:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x55486b… |
| 07-15 13:02:13 | (anonymous) 0x4167…8231 | No | SELL | 21 | 92¢ | $20 | 0x96d992… |
| 07-15 13:02:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 21 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x96d992… |
| 07-13 12:50:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3739be… |
| 07-13 12:50:28 | (anonymous) 0x4167…8231 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x3739be… |
| 07-13 12:50:28 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | BUY | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x3739be… |
| 07-11 23:11:07 | Hoarse-Monk 0x86fc…4266 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xdef5d9… |
| 07-11 23:11:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xdef5d9… |
| 07-09 17:34:19 | (anonymous) 0x9140…f62c | No | SELL | 12 | 92¢ | $11 | 0x564d3d… |
| 07-09 17:34:19 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | BUY | 12 | 92¢ | $11 | 0x564d3d… |
| 07-09 17:33:52 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xeb2d71… |
| 07-09 17:33:52 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xeb2d71… |
| 07-09 17:33:52 | Flamboyant-Voice 0xe39a…76b1 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xeb2d71… |
| 07-08 18:06:37 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 4 | 94¢ | $4 | 0xf9cbfd… |
| 07-08 18:06:37 | Growling-Styling 0xdf37…8b49 | No | SELL | 36 | 94¢ | $34 | 0xf9cbfd… |
| 07-08 18:06:37 | Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | BUY | 62 | 94¢ | $59 | 0xf9cbfd… |