Chubby-Trust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.10K

Unrealized P&L

-$703

Hit rate

61.3%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$33.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$225

Open exposure

$343

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 11-05 04:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Politics

81% 35% -$3,756

Other

19% 40% -$348

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+370	$289	70¢	$257	-$31	11-05 04:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-708	$590	12¢	$-81	-$672	06-22 10:59
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?	No	+6	$4	74¢	$5	+$0	11-02 10:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	17	$6.2K	16,152	16,860	-708	open	—	06-22 10:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$4.3K	3,302	3,437	-136	Yes	+$1,093	06-08 02:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	15	$3.9K	7,207	2,188	+5,019	Yes	-$1,999	06-12 05:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$3.5K	2,608	2,608	+0	No	+$608	04-30 10:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$3.0K	2,453	2,453	+0	No	+$416	05-18 02:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	2	$2.1K	2,040	2,040	+0	Yes	+$332	06-02 00:04
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	16	$2.0K	7,238	0	+7,238	Yes	-$1,969	06-12 00:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	7	$1.4K	4,085	4,085	+0	Yes	-$1,020	06-16 07:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	3	$1.4K	1,280	1,280	+0	Yes	+$425	06-01 13:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$953	1,225	1,225	+0	No	+$2	06-16 07:19
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$894	1,738	1,738	+0	No	-$492	05-15 02:53
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	13	$848	4,812	4,812	+0	No	-$656	09-10 05:41
AI bubble burst in 2026?	8	$512	2,380	2,380	+0	open	—	11-02 10:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	5	$410	800	800	+0	Yes	+$10	09-21 09:59
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	10	$384	3,406	3,406	+0	open	—	11-05 00:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	1	$289	370	0	+370	open	—	11-05 04:39
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	5	$245	25,606	0	+25,606	Yes	-$245	06-11 01:05
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$228	441	441	+0	No	-$147	05-15 02:53
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	3	$218	200	200	+0	Yes	+$18	09-18 10:40
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	9	$190	500	500	+0	open	—	09-15 22:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	4	$186	415	15	+400	Yes	-$168	06-08 03:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	1	$112	201	0	+201	Yes	-$112	06-08 03:02
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$101	643	0	+643	Yes	-$101	01-31 08:38
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$50	173	0	+173	Yes	-$50	02-28 05:53
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	1	$25	210	0	+210	Yes	-$25	06-16 00:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	1	$14	200	0	+200	Yes	-$14	09-21 10:01
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$10	161	0	+161	No	-$10	03-12 09:56
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	11-02 10:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 04:39:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	370	78¢	$289	0x83d1c0…
11-05 00:12:45	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	SELL	2,417	2¢	$44	0x155ce1…
11-02 12:03:24	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	SELL	989	4¢	$45	0xa7f0de…
11-02 10:19:36	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x4d63c6…
11-02 10:17:15	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,380	9¢	$215	0xf80330…
09-23 00:40:56	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	892	10¢	$94	0x10b69d…
09-23 00:40:16	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	325	10¢	$34	0xd22c08…
09-23 00:39:50	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	664	10¢	$68	0x77d1de…
09-21 10:01:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x454160…
09-21 09:59:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	595	26¢	$155	0x643a70…
09-21 09:59:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	205	27¢	$55	0x6d05d4…
09-18 18:20:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	246	25¢	$61	0x0789e1…
09-18 14:58:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0xe01946…
09-18 14:33:19	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	533	25¢	$133	0xf2274d…
09-18 10:40:10	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	200	59¢	$118	0xe6505c…
09-15 22:58:07	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	203	17¢	$34	0x67f5fd…
09-15 22:40:31	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xea3d93…
09-15 21:13:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	147	17¢	$25	0x5bbfc3…
09-15 18:34:34	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x39a8e1…
09-15 18:34:33	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0x7f05db…
09-15 18:34:31	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0x47f375…
09-15 18:16:57	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x29890e…
09-15 17:48:34	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	102	17¢	$17	0x01c065…
09-12 14:10:45	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x2c016a…
09-12 14:08:07	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x69b7ac…
09-10 05:41:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	4,812	2¢	$96	0x304336…
06-23 08:48:20	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	1,893	9¢	$170	0x11c517…
06-23 04:45:31	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	19	9¢	$2	0x6c1570…
06-23 04:09:40	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x46b968…
06-22 11:03:41	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$105	0x216e86…
06-22 11:02:23	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	423	20¢	$86	0x33ae21…
06-22 11:01:26	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0x353114…
06-22 11:01:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	572	10¢	$57	0xe9cc2a…
06-22 11:01:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	633	11¢	$70	0x10ac18…
06-22 11:00:58	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0x79e9cd…
06-22 11:00:55	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	154	7¢	$11	0x5dde1a…
06-22 10:59:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4,092	13¢	$532	0x9ae5bf…
06-17 07:41:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	192	12¢	$23	0x20bb3d…
06-16 07:57:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,566	1¢	$20	0x013eae…
06-16 07:20:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,900	13¢	$507	0x939a71…
06-16 07:19:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,225	39¢	$478	0x3e49ba…
06-16 00:48:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,020	39¢	$398	0x48c522…
06-16 00:46:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	205	38¢	$78	0xfe4002…
06-16 00:34:37	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	210	12¢	$25	0x4b4ef2…
06-12 05:02:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	177	39¢	$69	0x655d8a…
06-12 04:09:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	207	39¢	$81	0x167dbe…
06-12 02:26:25	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	39¢	$7	0x33b460…
06-12 02:20:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x671351…
06-12 01:27:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x0b22fa…
06-12 01:27:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	96	39¢	$38	0x2dc35b…
06-12 01:27:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xba87ad…
06-12 01:26:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,284	39¢	$501	0x39b872…
06-12 01:22:49	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	711	12¢	$88	0x9987fe…
06-12 01:04:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4,733	17¢	$805	0x43f2b6…
06-12 00:59:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	800	39¢	$312	0xb4fa24…
06-12 00:58:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,651	18¢	$297	0x84d5d1…
06-12 00:33:37	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5,000	23¢	$1,150	0x2fcaeb…
06-12 00:32:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6,384	18¢	$1,149	0x899467…
06-11 01:07:16	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x814aab…
06-11 01:05:28	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	BUY	548	0¢	$1	0x61bf79…
06-11 01:05:25	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	BUY	18,952	0¢	$38	0x1c0bc0…
06-11 01:05:19	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	BUY	1,806	0¢	$4	0x2899e2…
06-11 00:52:39	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	52	46¢	$24	0x47f536…
06-11 00:47:48	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x43edd4…
06-11 00:47:37	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0x0127db…
06-11 00:41:31	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	313	46¢	$144	0x0497fa…
06-11 00:37:37	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xd51cb0…
06-11 00:37:37	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x5cc2a9…
06-11 00:37:37	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0x4b1f0d…
06-11 00:37:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	78	46¢	$36	0xb49175…
06-11 00:37:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x65c797…
06-11 00:37:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	186	46¢	$86	0x2613cd…
06-11 00:37:33	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	170	46¢	$78	0x6f0dd6…
06-11 00:31:27	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0x81dca6…
06-11 00:26:12	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	BUY	4,000	5¢	$188	0xc15a6e…
06-11 00:26:04	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	BUY	300	5¢	$14	0x614343…
06-10 15:12:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	260	34¢	$88	0xaa0476…
06-10 12:24:09	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe782e1…
06-10 09:33:30	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x5e08c4…
06-10 00:32:25	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	444	9¢	$40	0x9071c3…
06-10 00:32:16	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	774	8¢	$62	0x403eb6…
06-08 13:05:13	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	22¢	$8	0xf075d8…
06-08 03:06:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,300	33¢	$429	0x38736c…
06-08 03:05:16	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x699a6d…
06-08 03:05:15	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	22¢	$8	0x3994a9…
06-08 03:02:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	201	56¢	$112	0xf1c190…
06-08 03:01:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	58¢	$9	0xd5cabe…
06-08 03:00:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	392	42¢	$164	0x08b4e3…
06-08 03:00:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0x1f0642…
06-08 02:58:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	470	32¢	$150	0x38b326…
06-08 02:52:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xb0af17…
06-08 02:41:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,211	85¢	$1,879	0xf208e7…
06-08 02:13:16	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	75	19¢	$14	0x6fdb48…
06-08 02:12:37	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xd84e1f…
06-08 00:52:51	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	142	18¢	$25	0xff8ca1…
06-08 00:52:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	76	17¢	$13	0x1a2655…
06-08 00:52:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	68	82¢	$56	0xe28aa1…
06-07 11:28:06	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	836	18¢	$150	0x45f776…
06-07 11:27:37	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	190	18¢	$34	0x747c41…
06-07 11:26:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	230	83¢	$191	0x6daf62…